PROPHECIES: 30 YEARS ON

I have slipped into my soothsayer’s kaftan, fortified myself with a fragrant joint and am quite ready to share with you my clairvoyant predictions of the world our grand-children will enjoy 30 years on. By then I will be snugly ensconced in my mausoleum and will be impervious to all those hoots of derision directed my way.

The Future revealed

The world of 2045 will naturally be quite different from that of today, at least on the surface. Starting at home, the United Kingdom, renamed the United Commonwealth, will no longer be a monarchy. Although Charles and Camilla were an eccentric couple, what put paid to the monarchy were the gross abuses of the Lords starting with Lord Sewel but embracing almost all the free-loading and overfed members of the upper chamber. The electorate rejected the right of peers to their privileges and soon questioned the whole world of privilege, starting at the top. An elective 2^nd chamber was substituted with a popular franchise. Charles decided to abdicate while William and Kate renounced all their rights and retired peacefully to farm near Sandringham.

Cameron, spurred on by Osborne, negotiated an associate status for Britain within the European Union but this was resoundingly rejected at a referendum and total exit was preferred. Boris Johnson then headed a vigorously nationalistic government but the loss of Gibraltar moved opinion against him and then the reign of aged Jeremy Corbyn was upon us. Buoyed up by the youth vote, he presided over the demise of the monarchy but economic management was deficient – the transvestite drummer from the pop-group Snarl had become Chancellor of the Exchequer. Corbyn’s suppression of the SNP was a trifle heavy-handed with its leaders arraigned for the Edinburgh Treason Trials – life sentences commuted to 10 years. Huge increases in welfare spending and over-reliance on wind power soon necessitated an IMF bail-out and the joys of Austerity. The new Radical Right government, privatised the NHS, reintroduced fox-hunting, levied a hefty entry charge on all immigrants and was much admired in the USA.

Europe became fractured. After Grexit in 2016 and the 2017 Spanish insurrection, the Eurozone unravelled. The Teutonic Thaler Zone, Germany, Austria, Benelux, Slovakia and Scandinavia (with Poland a reluctant associate) showed only stodgy progress held back by lack of enterprise and an ageing population. The Baltics were re-annexed by Russia without any NATO response. France led the dynamic Mediterranean Zone with Spain, Portugal, Italy and much of the Balkans. Greece was readmitted after 10 years of reform and success with her own drachma. Partitioned Turkey became an associate. Large investments were made in the associated Maghreb and Egypt, stemming the flow of refugees and developing modern economies.

The Middle East played out the turbulent Sunni- Shia division with Iraq disappearing partly into the Sunni theocracy and partly into the Shia one. Turkey lost her Eastern provinces to nascent Kurdistan and her Anatolian provinces joined the Sunni theocracy. By 2030, the Arab world tired of religious conflict and bloodshed; many states were impoverished by the collapse of the use of oil. Secular governments reasserted an uneasy sway.

India developed substantially but corruption was an endemic handicap. China suffered boom and bust, even after the demise of the communist party, as managing her vast economy was beyond the abilities of her central civil service and government. More admirable was the South East Asia Federation, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, The Philippines and the former Indo-China. This area grew exponentially, creating a highly efficient liberalised global player and a rival to China and Japan.

The big change was in the complacent USA, whose growth faltered as the spirit of enterprise dimmed. NAFTA had brought many benefits but the opportunities were greatly enhanced by her association with newly dynamic Republican Britain and her old dominions Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland. Common culture had brought them close together and their joint resources dwarfed any others. After the USA apologised handsomely to Britain for her unfortunate disloyalty in 1776, (graciously accepted), Britain and her friends joined the United States – “of America” was dropped - in 2040 after overwhelming electoral approval and the appropriate Constitutional amendments. The future of our world was assured.

SMD

30.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015

OUR FALSE GODS

I spend my summers on the beautiful and verdant Aegean island of Samos and naturally my mind strays to the ancient gods. “Naturally”, because Samos was allegedly the birthplace of and became the centre of the cult of Hera, wife (and sister!) of Zeus and a scheming lady, patron of women and marriage. Her last ancient Temple here (The Heraion) was enormous, about three times the size of the Parthenon in Athens, and pilgrims flocked to adore her with their votive offerings from far flung Egypt, Armenia, Africa and Mesopotamia. But where is Hera now? Her temple is a mass of stumps and broken foundations, her puissance disregarded.

Hera and Zeus by Carracci

The ancient world was imbued by a sense of mutual toleration. In a famous passage Gibbon reflects: Such was the mild spirit of Antiquity, that the nations were less attentive to the difference than to the resemblance of their religious worship. The Greek, the Roman, and the Barbarian, as they met before their respective altars, easily persuaded themselves that, under various names and with various ceremonies, they adored the same deities. The elegant mythology of Homer gave a beautiful and almost a regular form to the polytheism of the ancient world.

Alas, this mild spirit of Antiquity was to be swept away by the exclusive demands of monotheistic religions. Trouble was brewing early with the Israelites being warned by a grumpy Jehovah not to “go a-whoring after false gods” or they risked breaking their special Covenant: “For I am a Jealous God”, he thundered unattractively. Much worse was to come, with Europe and the Americas beholden to the Christian God for some 1,600 years. What superstitions were preserved, what crimes were committed in that God’s name! Introspective but disputatious Orthodoxy gave way to aggressive and assertive Catholicism and fractured into gloomy and puritanical Protestantism. A dismal procession indeed!

Luckily the Church lost out when the Renaissance revived the ancient wisdoms; when the Enlightenment taught us to think rationally and examine evidence; when the March of Science unravelled many natural mysteries and explained a myriad of conundrums. Modern man was freed from fear and ignorance.

But was he? Mankind is a congenital enthusiast for Causes and became enmeshed in a sticky spiders’ web of politico-economic “-isms” - Absolutism, Radicalism, Chartism, Imperialism, Socialism, Nationalism, Fascism, Communism, Capitalism. Each “-ism” had a sub-set of policies associated with the Cause. These policies were theoretically capable of rational appraisal, of modification, of adjustment, even of abandonment. But the True Believer in the Cause was reluctant to ditch any associated policy; thus a Communist decries any criticism of the notion of “exploitation”; the Capitalist defends the Sanctity of the Market with the same fanaticism that the Papist once extended to the Real Presence at the Eucharist.

All of which brings me to the Cause of European Unity and the policy of Austerity. European Unity has many noble merits (although the UK does not remotely fit in) and maybe one day there will be a peaceful and strong United States of Europe. But it is not a perfect construct: the common currency distorts the national economies: racial contempt for the Mediterranean peoples is rampant: its government is statist and unenterprising.

The policy of Austerity has all the trappings of a religious tenet with Schaeuble as its austere Pope and our George Osborne as a semi-detached acolyte. Its flavour is a toxic compound, made up of elements of the Protestant work ethic (Merkel is the daughter of a Lutheran pastor) and an extreme embracing of neoliberal economics from the United States. The stated aim of Austerity is to promote growth by closing the deficit gap between government spending and its revenues by cutting state spending and raising taxes. Austerity is not recommended for struggling economies as it is deflationary and is likely to worsen the crucial ratio between government borrowings and GDP. It was not just maverick Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who protested – his analysis is supported by leading academics Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz and historically by Maynard Keynes. Austerity has not worked for admittedly errant Greece, but Europe ignored the evidence and imposed its doctrine with rigid fervour, “ritually humiliating” Greece, partly for ideological reasons, with perhaps ominous consequences. The other European “red line” is Debt Write-off, which Greece certainly needs, as the IMF and the rest of the world clearly understand, but Europe refuses to discuss.

Austerity is just one in an armoury of economic policies, to be assessed, perhaps implemented and carefully monitored. It is perilous to raise it to a dogma and invite equally extreme counter-measures. 21^st century statesmen need to dodge such false gods, exercise their duties honestly, avoid populism and simply “to grow up”.

SMD

26.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015

LYRICAL AMERICA

The popular music that flowed in a delightful torrent from the USA roughly from 1900 to 1960 profoundly influenced the world. Their tunes and lyrics are deeply embedded in our collective consciousness. There was a concentration of inspiration in the music publishing businesses and musical theatres in New York and I wish to celebrate these composers and songwriters and their superb talents.

Impossible to cover this vast field in detail, I will just touch on the most famous names and recall some of their finest songs. One of the earliest was George M Cohan (1878-1942) the ultra-patriotic Irish-American, who gave us Give my Regards to Broadway, It’s a Grand Old Flag and the Great War classic Over There. He was immortalised by dynamically brash James Cagney in the wonderful biopic Yankee Doodle Dandy of 1942.

Cagney as George M Cohan

More typical was Jerome Kern (1885-1945) New York-born of German-Jewish parents. His mother was musical and Kern wrote many songs including Smoke gets into your Eyes and The Way you look Tonight together with a clutch of musicals. The one that has survived best is Showboat with Ol’ Man River and Only Make Believe leading the field of favourites.

Poster for the 1951 movie version

The role model for many aspiring song-writers was Irving Berlin (1888-1989), born in Russia to Jewish parents who lived to a venerable 101. Reared in the hectic Tin Pan Alley ambiance, his output was prodigious, with his early (1912) hit Alexander’s Ragtime Band followed by ageless Cheek to Cheek, Let’s face the Music and Dance, White Christmas, and one of my favourites Isn’t it a lovely Day to be caught in the Rain? among 1,500 others. His melodic gifts were unrivalled, yet his instrumental skills were shaky in that he preferred only to use the black piano keys and had two “transposer” pianos to allow him to change key and still keep to the blacks!

Irving Berlin enchants

A more accomplished musician was George Gershwin (1898-1937) who collaborated with his brother Ira and Buddy DeSilva as lyricists. He wrote a wide range of popular classics like Swanee, Oh. Lady be Good and Our Love is here to stay. He aspired to more serious music and his opera Porgy and Bess is now much admired as are his Rhapsody in Blue and An American in Paris. His early death aged 38 to a brain tumour was a grievous loss. His Summertime typifies his immortal legacy.

Cole Porter (1891-1964), the son of well-to-do Indiana parents and Yale-educated, revelled in New York’s theatrical world and café society. His lovely music and sophisticated lyrics delighted 1930s America epitomised by Anything Goes, Let’s do It and I get a Kick out of You. Cole’s life was shattered when his horse fell on him in 1937, damaging both legs – one was later amputated – and also his whole nervous system. Nevertheless it can e'er be said of Cole; “You’re sensational, sensational, that’s all”

Not all songwriters had long careers or uninterrupted success. The team of DeSylva, Brown and Henderson flourished briefly 1925-31 but gave us The Birth of the Blues and the Depression anthem The Best things in life are Free. Betty Comden and Adolf Green were a team writing screenplays and providing libretti, whose success with The Band Wagon was followed by the smash-hit Singin’ in the Rain, the iconic musical whose actual music was derived from stock 1920s oldies. Leonard Bernstein (1918-90) composed On the Town in 1944, but his score was emasculated for the 1949 movie with only evocative New York, New York is a wonderful Town surviving.  He had better luck with West Side Story, with lyricist Stephen Sondheim, his lovely songs Maria, Somewhere a place for us and Tonight being cherished globally.

Perhaps the most commercially successful composer was Richard Rodgers (1902-79) whose lyricist was first Lorenz Hart and then Oscar Hammerstein II. Rodgers was born into a prosperous German-Jewish family in Queens, NYC and, like Hart and Hammerstein, attended Columbia University. With Hart he wrote great songs like There’s a small hotel, The Lady is a Tramp and My Funny Valentine.

They produced fine musicals such as On your Toes and Pal Joey. But Rodgers was to dominate the world of musical-comedy with Hammerstein with a string of hits in the 1940s and 1950s ranging from Oklahoma! to Carousel and South Pacific, which had us all singing June is busting out all over, What’s the use of wond’ring? and This nearly was Mine.

Rodgers and Hart

Rodgers and Hammerstein

Of course we all have our favourites but these astonishing American songs have been sung by succeeding generations, by Astaire, by Sinatra, by Ella, by Elvis and by a host of others. Fashions in music change and I simply add my profound gratitude for the genius of these bringers of joy.

George M Cohan     www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKeYS1P9j1c

Jerome Kern           www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvEQi6JGJ9c

Irving Berlin           www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z6z64at9O4

George Gershwin            www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixdJLXDT_QM

Richard Rodgers          www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsjV1OXQIAc

SMD

20.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015 

GREECE: SALVATION AND DAMNATION

It has been a torrid political July in Greece. Deadlock with the Eurozone brought in capital controls and closed banks on 1 July followed by a stunning 61%/39% referendum vote rejecting further austerity on 5 July. The euphoria was short-lived, even though slippery New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras resigned; high profile finance minister Yanis Varoufakis was also dropped and on 12 July Alexis Tsipras and new finance man Euclid Tsakalotos were forced to accept astonishingly harsh terms from the Eurozone for a €86bn third bailout. These terms were approved by Parliament on 15 July, with SYRIZA badly split, but with much opposition help. Turmoil and recriminations abound.

Tsipras besieged and defiant

 

       

Tsakalotos exhausted and depressed

Illusions and contradictions have plagued this issue in a bewildering manner. The Greek government misled its people by offering both continued membership of the euro and an end to austerity. It was either one or the other – not both. An end to austerity could only come, after a turbulent period, from Grexit, while staying with the euro involved a bailout on harsh terms. The Greeks decided that Grexit was too risky and they had to swallow the bailout terms. They were in no position to resist further. The stark fact is that Greece will have borrowed €336bn in 3 bailouts; its lenders expect to be repaid and have little sympathy for a serially mismanaged debtor.

The Eurozone for years has maintained that membership is permanent and unchangeable. Yet Germany suddenly proposed that Greece “takes 5 years out” to steady herself with her own new drachma currency, helped by the others, in a “velvet” Grexit. This might have been the way forward if it had been suggested months ago but it was aired far too late and seemed to be just another bright idea from incurably Hellenophobic Wolfgang Schaeuble. Angela Merkel and the EU Commission seem to have rejected the idea, but it still hovers somewhere in the Brussels/Berlin miasma. We may well hear more of this proposal.

The economic “thinking” behind the new bailout terms is absurd. Greece should certainly enact laws to overhaul its pension system, update labour laws, liberalise professions and slash government extravagance in a Thatcherite fashion. The €50bn “trust fund” however is a naked asset-strip and its expectation of being “monetised” soon is fantasy – who will buy nationalised Greek assets at a fair value? This provision has all the hallmarks of the poison pens of Schaeuble and his Dutch minion Dijsselbloem. But Greece is in no position to increase taxes (assuming they are collected) nor to run an annually increasing surplus; her economy is in its 6^th year of deep recession. She needs stimulus, not deflation. Most of all she needs jobs for her 26% unemployed, few of whom receive any state benefits. Europe has failed to bring any intellectual vitality to the party.

Reaction in Greece has been predictably bitter. Successive Greek governments bear most of the blame and the situation is not helped by insults and lurid adjectives. Protests took a predictable course; anarchists tossed their traditional Molotov cocktails at the riot police; civil servants went on strike; Varoufakis tweeted about the idiocy of the Eurozone. The fraught issue of debt sustainability will re-surface soon, as all know Greece cannot shoulder such high debt and write-offs are inevitable in due course. Talk of the solidarity of the Eurozone and its inevitable progress have a hollow ring here – never have European states hated each other so much since 1945.

Nobody comes out of this well and no fundamental issue has been resolved. Greece was dealt a weak hand yet failed to find any dependable allies or set out a coherent narrative; Merkel showed that she was wholly lacking in leadership qualities, whatever her many flatterers may say: France seemed helpful in the last days but was essentially doing Germany’s dirty work politely: the EU Commission fluttered about but Juncker is not an inspiring figure; only Schaeuble was presumably satisfied that his arrogance and vindictiveness triumphed, but at how high a cost for the reputation of Germany and the blighted future of Europe.

Europe has never been more disunited and disgraced. Greece is a side-show but her martyrdom will be regretted and ever deplored. The British people will surely remember how Greece was treated in the UK’s 2017 Referendum together with the craven actions of the EU and they will cry “OUT” to defend their own national integrity with an overwhelming voice.

SMD

17.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015

GREECE:A LOUD "NO" TO EURO-BLACKMAIL

It was, to be frank, an idiotic referendum asking a highly technical question about a Eurozone offer, which had since been withdrawn. But it came to be seen as submission to, or defiance of, the diktats of the Eurozone. By a 61%-39% margin, the Greeks chose brave defiance and can now walk tall into the Fiery Furnace. The arrogant fat-cats in Brussels and Berlin have received a well-deserved poke in the eye.

EuroGroup chairman's Dijsselbloem's horror at the referendum result

I am a neo-Thatcherite Tory and hold no brief for SYRIZA, especially for its loony Left faction, a useless amalgam of the ghosts of Jack Jones, Hughie Scanlon, Wedgie Benn and Michael Foot – incapable of running a whelk-stall. If I had a vote I would support ANEL (Independent Greeks), the junior members of the coalition, doughty enemies of austerity but otherwise solidly conservative. There are capable SYRIZA people, including Alexis Tsipras himself, Nadia Valavani, architect of a generous tax instalment scheme and Euclid Tsakalotos, economic spokesman, educated at St Paul’s, who read PPE at Oxford and also has an Oxford PhD, low-key and civilised.

Charismatic Yanis Varoufakis has just resigned as Finance Minister to help Tsipras clear the air. The other Euro Finance Ministers hated him for his lecturing manner and simply because he was much smarter than they. He repeatedly insisted that Greece needs debt relief, anathema to the Eurozone, although the IMF eventually supported his views. It is, alas, a vain hope that Wolfgang Schaeuble has the same modesty to realise that his sclerotic views are an obstacle to any agreement and his retirement aged 72 is now overdue.

Schaeuble and Varoufakis, the best of enemies

The Eurozone’s treatment of Greece regarding the referendum has been despicable. Brussels and Berlin reckoned here was the great chance of regime change and they bombarded the venal Greek media with mendacious propaganda about the imminent collapse of the banks, about the coming hardships and shortages and, they talked of approaching “Armageddon”.  They made common cause with the wholly discredited Greek opposition (RIP today for Mr Samaras and his gang.). Germany’s vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel blatantly called on Greeks to vote “Yes”, as did bibulous EU President Juncker, upsetting the Greeks no end.  The Eurozone bag of poison embraced browbeating and economic blackmail, racial insults of “lazy” Greeks (“Untermenschen”) and a huge dose of lies and misrepresentation. Their erstwhile mentors, Messrs Hitler, Himmler and Goebbels, have taught them well.

But history only takes you so far. In practical terms Greece needs to do a deal with the Eurozone soon to win an infusion of funds combined with some long-term hope, maybe with a debt relief element. All depends on the goodwill (sic!) of the ECB. Otherwise, and I would say inevitably, Greece should leave the Euro and run its own devalued currency. Properly managed and governed that could be the making of Greece, but faith in Hellenic common sense and determination is in short supply. Thrill and astonish us, Mr Tsipras!

Tsipras triumphant on 5 July 2015

                                   

SMD

6.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015                    

THE SCOTTISH TABLE

I had thought of entitling this piece La Cuisine Ecossaise but that sounded much too pretentious for the simple, homely but deliciously varied offerings of the Scottish kitchen, beloved nourisher of many a strapping Scots youth and of yet more rotund Scots greybeards. I now peep into this well-stocked larder and make my selection.

The eminent Liberal Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, Prime Minister of Britain (1905-08) and of course a Scot, was asked to describe his ideal meal: “Mutton broth, fresh herring or salmon, haggis, roast mutton, grouse, apple tart, strawberries – maistly Scotch”. Unsurprisingly, Campbell-Bannerman tipped the scales at an heroic 19 stone. What his selection showed was the wide natural resources available to the Scots – Aberdeen Angus beef, mutton and lamb, game birds, fish and seafood galore, fruit and berries – with only haggis striking an unfamiliar note. Haggis, the minced and spiced “pluck” of sheep, with onion, suet and oatmeal crammed into a bladder and boiled makes a classic Scots “winter-warmer” dish and a traditional part of a Burns Supper feast every 25 January, always with mashed neeps (turnips) and tatties (potatoes). It is admittedly peasant fare and may not have impressed Escoffier, but I find it delectable.

Haggis, neeps and tatties

After the usual plateful of fragrant kippers, let’s start with the staples of bread with its various offshoots. My home city of Aberdeen welcomes the morn with her distinctive Buttery Rowie (a “morning roll” according to cut-glass shop-girls), a succulent flat piece of heaven, a little greasy with her lard and butter, served piping hot with clover honey; I salivate just to write about it!

Aberdeen butteries

A well-filled bap

I associate Edinburgh, my smiling old grandmother and another smiler, the late Queen Mother, with Baps, the white floury variety, an incomparable breakfast feature, warm with heather honey, but a versatile carrier of snack sandwiches of all kinds.

Getting more sophisticated, and more nightmarish for the dietician, we embrace Selkirk Bannocks (bread suffused with raisins), griddle cakes – otherwise Scotch pancakes (much smaller and thicker than crepes and spread with jam), and Black Bun (a pastry covered fruit cake) capable of sinking The Titanic, let alone the consumer. The king of all Scots cakes is Dundee Cake, invented by Keillers, famed marmalade makers in that fine city, a rich confection of fruit, sultanas and almonds.

Black Bun

             

Dundee Cake

  

Less gastronomically challenging is the famous variety of Scottish biscuits like the currant-speckled  Abernethy, doucely partaken with afternoon tea, traditional and crunchy oatcakes, a favourite of my lovely wife, and the amazing products of McVitie & Price, not least the globally iconic Dark Chocolate Digestive, consumed by the packetful. Beyond praise is Scots Shortbread, often home made, but Walkers and Patersons are reliably toothsome brands. I recall a plateful of ambrosial shortbread served warm one afternoon at Kildrummy House Hotel on Donside – Ah, memory hold the door!             

     

Succulent Shortbread           

But what about the main event, the Scottish feast itself? The soup course is no problem, we are spoiled for choice, strong runners including Scotch Broth and Cock-a-leekie but my favourite is Cullen Skink, a creamy fish soup, richly graced by finnan haddock, potatoes and onions. Baxter’s tinned version is a delight.

Hearty Cullen Skink

The fish course can take advantage of the abundant catches in the cold seas surrounding Britain and the seafood cornucopia of Scotland’s long coast. We could have oysters or crayfish from the West, or halibut or sole from the roaming Scottish fishing fleet. I will however settle for poached salmon with a light salad, ideally rod-caught on any of a dozen great rivers, food for kings.

Poached Salmon

          

Our main dish brooks no argument; it has to be Scottish Beef, roasted yet slightly underdone, a juicy delight, with home-grown sprouts and potatoes. Just to prove we are no chauvinists, we will invite glorious fluffy Yorkshire Pudding to accompany us and wash it all down with a glass or three of Claret.

Scottish Roast Beef

As a dessert, I had thought of selecting the famed Deep-fried Mars Bar, chance invention of a chip shop in Stonehaven, south of Aberdeen but I suppose that would be just too gross. Instead I recommend Cranachan, a venerable confection made of whipped cream, honey, fresh Angus raspberries, toasted oatmeal and a wee dash of whisky.

Cranachan

                                   

Time for bed, and as a nightcap a warming glass of Speyside malt whisky, supplemented perhaps with a sinful portion of traditional sugary Tablet, which a great-aunt used to produce every Hogmanay. Calories blissfully uncounted, I can then slip into the profoundly grateful Caledonian sleep of the just!

SMD

5.07.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015