Upside Down Cake

 

UPSIDE-DOWN CAKE

There is a traditional British confection, usually with a pineapple base, called an upside-down cake, and as I emerged, blinking, from winter hibernation and writer’s block, I thought that our world has a new, peculiar flavour, with old certainties up-ended and familiar tastes transformed. It will all take some getting used to, analysis will be intense and we would be wise not to rush to judgement. Modern humanity is restlessly dynamic and old alliances may wobble. If governments are elected on a platform of radical and rapid change, we can expect a bumpy, pot-holed journey.

Upside Down Cake (per Mary Berry)

Before we criticise others, we would be wise to contemplate our own navel. The UK is not a happy ship. It is a sharply polarised society- Left v Right, Woke v Traditional, North v South, Brexiteer v Eurofanatic. From 2010 to 2024 it had an inept Tory government, helped by facing an unelectable Labour opposition of loony Leftists. Its leaders, hollow Cameron, guileless May, erratic Boris, gambling Truss, or uninspiring Sunak, did not quicken the pulse. They were unlucky to encounter the Covid plague, but every country suffered that. Then Labour found new leadership in Keir Starmer and in 2024 convincingly won the election. Labour’s hour had struck.

What a disaster! With Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, the government made mistake after mistake. Unaffordable public sector salary rises, high tax increases on employers, class war attacks on private education, tax privileges withdrawn from many farmers. Doctrinal stuff poorly presented. UK politics became more fractured. Farage’s Reform Party capturing many on the Right, Lib Dems and Greens attracting the Woke dreamers, even the declining Nationalists getting a boost. Starmer himself often looks the part of PM but the public suspect that while he can master a brief as a lawyer, he lacks any inner conviction or driving principle. He will not long survive as leader. Faced with higher defence obligations and shaky public finances the UK must cut its coat sharply.

Britain’s unlikely saviours

The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 by a narrow margin and after many a wrangle finally left in 2020. The Brexiteers caught onto a popular current as the benefits of EU membership were not apparent to many; the civil service and the Establishment Blob loved the EU and yet every attempt was made by Europe to humiliate, frustrate, exploit and thwart the UK, notably by France, Germany and the EU Commission. The chances of the UK working happily with these people are very remote. Europe is much too disparate to agree any coherent policies, with wide economic and political gaps separating her various blocs. Only wishful thinking by dreaming Starmer can overcome this hard reality.

  

E Macron                                          U von der Leyen                            O Scholz

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

The ingredient in our cake which was once an enviable honey-pot but is now a flailing paprika-laden poison is our erstwhile ally, the United States of America. Donald Trump returned to office 100 days ago in January 2025, comfortably overwhelming Biden and Harris. In his campaign Trump had to dodge a few bullets, but his nationalistic MAGA message was consistently preached and lapped up. The world did not take Trumpism very seriously but had to rethink as Trump imposed high tariffs, which he levied erratically but hunkered down to a trade-war with China and South East Asia, formidable opponents.

Much worse, Trump kept shooting himself in the foot by changing sides in the Russia – Ukraine War, withdrawing military aid to Ukraine, praising Russia, disparaging NATO, insulting Zelensky, ignoring the EU. There have been some conciliatory gestures, but trust in Trump’s USA is rapidly melting. He also threatened Canada and Greenland with annexation, roundly condemned by them. This whole foreign policy issue has been treated by Trump as an expanded poker game and he has behaved with a degree of egotism and crassness which would have brought blushing shame to his many distinguished predecessors.

Yet the Trump regime has sound democratic credentials and there is some common sense in most of its policies. Trump complains about judgments against him (which he routinely evades) but he does not ignore the Constitution – he is a keen supporter of states’ rights. He pushes his programme by presidential edict as his majority in both houses of Congress is thin. He is a demagogue, but the US has seen quite a few of them in history. All the instincts of the UK public, all anglophonic, cultural and inherited values pull the UK towards the US. Relations are going through a rough patch. The UK needs to deploy all her diplomatic skills in re-establishing harmony and goodwill between our like-minded nations.

SMD

1.05.25 Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2025

MY BUTTERFLY MIND

Unable to sustain serious thought for more than about 30 minutes, I flitter from subject to subject, sipping its sweet nectar or bitter acidity like a demented butterfly. I will be heading home from delectable North Carolina in less than 2 weeks, so now is the moment critique, time to pontificate ignorantly about the health of Uncle Sam and peek into the future.

(1)    Only a matter of days now until Joe Biden can totter off to his peaceful care-home in Delaware, and hand over the nuclear codes and the government of the USA to the unreliable care of Donald Trump.

                         Trump and his oddball pal Elon Musk

Trump is inaugurated for his second term on Monday 20 January. For the last 3 months, the world has tried to anticipate Trump’s plans, and the chancelleries of many countries are a-tremble. We can expect a hurricane of activity. He sees himself as a cosmic deal-doer and he believes he can end the Russo-Ukraine War, probably by awarding invaded land to Putin, acquire Greenland by squeezing his supposed ally Denmark, tame Chinese expansion by starting a trade war, punish woke and Lefty Canada by increasing its dependence on the US, upset the EU and UK by distancing the US from her NATO commitments and regain control of the Panama Canal via extreme economic pressure. At home, he will protect US companies from competition by levying stiff tariffs on all imports, end illegal immigration by deporting thousands of Latinos, recruit more police to fight crime and favour meritocratic competition rather than “inclusive” policies in the labour market. Some of these policies are sensible but many are destabilising, not to say predatory. All need to be thought through carefully – not really Trump’s style.

Not much confidence has been generated by Trump’s announced cabinet appointments (most subject to congressional approval). There are many disruptors but few with solid governing experience in their portfolio appointments. Recently much has been heard from Elon Musk, adviser on government efficiency. Musk is said to be the richest man in the world, through his control of Tesla, but his pronouncements on UK politics at least have been naively ill-informed and Musk does not convince as a team player and may not last long as Trump’s mouthpiece.

(2)    America is not just about its politics, amazingly baroque as they may be. The USA is a hugely dynamic society, for years globally dominant and admired. Her living standards are light-years ahead of most of the world and even the gap between her and Western Europe is widening by the day. Her industries benefit from an enormously wealthy home market, natural resources abound, banks are solvent, new buildings rise in profusion, innovation and creativity are worshipped, tertiary education flourishes.

A country of 332m population is sure to have its problems. Ethnic tensions are a historical legacy – the USA is 62% White, 19% Hispanic-Latino, 12% Black, 7% Other. Blacks suffered the horrors of Slavery and Latinos were subservient. Understandably Americans tiptoe around the racial subject and seek not to offend, especially in the media. Hence there is plenty of what we Europeans call Wokery on TV. For example, I watch with some pleasure Queen Latifah star in The Equalizer, a spin-off from the Denzil Washington vigilante films, with 40-minute story episodes based in New York. The storyline often revolves around perceived exploitation of black people – fair enough for a US audience – but much less suited to one in Europe where the demographics are entirely different.

 

                                                    Queen Latifah in The Equalizer 

More frivolously, can I raise the US diet? This country has superb ingredients and excellent restaurants of all kinds. So why so much emphasis on vast helpings of junk food? Why do US supermarkets prosper selling bleached bread, chlorinated chicken and fizzy nothing drinks? There is almost a conspiracy to cap or defy nature. Oatmeal or cinnamon cake tastes fine, but America insists on covering them with sugary icing or a gooey mixture to pile on the calories. So of course, obesity is a rather visible problem; Americans put a great store on looking good, so surely, they should avoid a situation where one could park a bicycle between their buttocks! Yet in summary, I certainly do not disparage the cuisine of any country that can produce exquisite smoked beef brisket, toothsome clam chowder, amazing grilled rainbow trout and ribeye steaks to die for! But Americans, remember the Greeks -Pan Metron Ariston (Everything in moderation)

 

(3)    Finally, let us peek into the future, where giant strides forward are made daily. Knowledge is power stated Francis Bacon in the 17^th century and the US and Western Europe are hoovering up most of it, though China is nor a laggard. Space exploration, undersea studies, genetics, mass transit systems, pharmaceuticals, robotics, energy projects are all areas of intense effort and competition. Sadly for me, my excellent public-school education left me wholly ignorant formally of science. I had precisely one term of Science, which taught me how to light a Bunsen burner, and then I concentrated on the Humanities. So, I was red-hot on Wordsworth, Gladstone, or the Peninsular War but less hot on Newton and Faraday. I later read up something about Robert Oppenheimer and Alan Turing (at least I saw the movies) but if some soul wants a cogent explanation of Heisenberg’s Theory of Uncertainty, he should knock on someone else’s door.

My layman’s instinct tells me that great things have often been half-discovered in the past and now can be revived with the help of the latest scientific techniques. After much research in the dusty tomes of chroniclers and alchemists I present to you the phenomenon known as “Spontaneous Human Combustion”, (SHC), first formulated in 1746 as a pseudo-scientific explanation of the death of Countess Cornelia Bandi. There were several cases in the 19^th century where SHC was certified as the cause of death, but many of these cases were in Ireland and the deceased were old ladies with a fondness for drink often huddling near a warming fire. Unsurprisingly SHC was not much accepted in polite scientific circles.

 But fast forward to September 2024 and Israel’s remote pager attack on its enemies in Lebanon. 

Robert Oppenheimer

          

Alan Turing

It is surely child’s-play for modern practitioners of generic Artificial Intelligence to infiltrate a trigger into some everyday item of clothing (trainers?)  worn globally, detonate a SHC device and observe the satisfying puff of white smoke as the target combusts. What targets? Don’t worry,

 I’ve got a little list,

 I’ve got a little list,

And there’s none of them be missed.   

There’s none of them be missed! (patents pending)

 

SMD

10.01.25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

BEGONE, DULL CARE

I am hugely relieved to read that the gloomy weather recently – 12 miserable minutes of sunshine so far in all November in part of Sussex, but dismal in most places - is nothing to do with fraught international politics but can be confidently ascribed to a “static anticyclone” hovering over Northern Europe – don’t worry it will move East soon, and we will see more light even though it will get colder. It would have been natural to suppose that the gloom was some kind of prelude to a cosmic catastrophe – listening to the sensationalist media would reinforce that prognosis – but it’s a false alarm and everything will be hunky-dory in a week or two.

    `                                                            
Emmanuel Macron

Certainly, elections have not cheered me up, to say the least. I suppose the rot set in with the French, when Macron took fright at right-wing Marine Le Pen’s party success in European elections and called snap legislative polls to thwart her. But this backfired by handing a probable majority to all the most extreme Leftist parties headed by the appalling Jean-Luc Mélenchon and decimating Macron’s own clique, though Macron still heads his government with no majority. Macron may well end up as a lame-duck President (far from his Napoleonic ambitions) but then the French are ungovernable, as de Gaulle remarked, - how can you govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese?

                                                Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer

Then in July the UK election unsurprisingly booted out Sunak’s increasingly shambolic Tories, when outwardly dignified Starmer won by an unexpectedly large landslide. Starmer sadly has not impressed, being evasive and economical with the truth. There have also been signs of corruption and cronyism, much at odds with the squeaky-clean image in which Labour had presented itself. The cabinet is largely untested, but Rachel Reeves has presented a budget with swingeing tax increases, wildly biased towards Labour supporting groups in unions, public sector entities and, of course, the sacred NHS, an unreformed bottomless pit. Fiscal policy is unstructured, and the UK government is already foundering.

Kemi and Hamish Badenoch

 

William Hague

I was pleased by the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the depleted Conservative Party. She is a thinker, with firm Tory instincts and should start to lead a revival of her party’s fortunes, though she will have to fight some racial prejudice from diehards and reactionaries. I also voted in the arcane election for Chancellor of Oxford University. The original 38 candidates, swollen by no-hopers and over-zealous academics has been whittled down to 5 – I have gone for moderate Tory William Hague, biographer of iconic William Pitt the Younger, fundraiser and reliable bulwark against the rising tide of academic wokery.

                                                                              Donald Trump

Of course, the big story has been the enormous triumph of Republican Donald Trump in the US Presidential election. He walked it, condemning Kamala Harris and Joe Biden to outer darkness. The hand-wringing despair of the Democrats and Leftie Americans has been a joy to behold and many of them say they are fleeing to Europe – not sure how welcome they will be. Their horror and fear of an unrestrained Trump is understandable.

The Donald is an unpredictable oik, a convicted felon with the morals of an alley-cat, with no intellectual interests nor oratorical skills. He has made alarming comments about NATO and Europe and holds equivocal views on Ukraine, Israel, Russia and China. Yet he will back American businesses and the aspirational middle classes and will deregulate oil and energy companies, all of whom will prosper. We Brits are hoping the UK is exempted from some of his tariffs, even clutching at straws that his Scottish mother’s memory will soften his MAGA impositions, or that his pal Nigel Farage will somehow help us out! But it is early days yet – we have not seen his cabinet nor the quality of his team and entourage.

There may well be a rocky road ahead, but the worst does not often happen. Be of good cheer!

 

SMD

10.11.24

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2024

ANYTHING GOES!

 

Cole Porter summed it up beautifully:

The world has gone mad today
And good's bad today,
And black's white today,
And day's night today,
When most guys today
That women prize today
Are just silly gigolos
And though I'm not a great romancer
I know that you're bound to answer
When I propose,
Anything goes!

My generation, a slowly disappearing but vocal band of brothers and sisters hailing from the 1930s-1950s, value tradition, order, logic, consistency, patriotism, scientific progress, kindness and fairness, however imperfectly. The world of 2024, and no doubt in 2025 too, will turn all that upside down and somehow, we must resist or meekly accept the resultant anarchy. No prizes for guessing my point of view – Aux barricades, mes braves!

 

                            Liberty leading the People by Delacroix (The Louvre, Paris)

But we are uncomfortable in revolutionary mode and much prefer some gentle, if quizzical observations on ordinary life. I have the good fortune to be in North Carolina this Christmas – a chilly but bracing minus 2C today – and I have already consumed some traditional American delicacies, Blueberry muffins, clam chowder, Chesapeake oysters, moist brisket, Chick-Fil-A and blackened trout, washed down with a draught beer called Good Morning, Vietnam! All this is quite normal to Americans, but many Brits would find these names unfamiliar. Americans are different, to be sure. Some small confusion is only to be expected when Americans think trousers are pants, a jacket is a coat, and a waistcoat is a vest!

Naturally Americans cherish their history, their Constitution and are proud of their achievements. And yet, they have voted overwhelmingly in favour of a second term for Donald Trump, a convicted felon, a stranger to the truth and an ignoramus outside his passions for property development, flashy women and the game of golf. His policies of large-scale migrant deportation, weaponising tariffs, withdrawing from non-American obligations are popular but simplistic and likely to have nasty unintended consequences. I only hope he listens to experienced advice after 20 January 2025, (some hope!).

                                                Trump’s sinister police mugshot

We Brits cannot gloat – we have a much smaller economy, and we are already in a fiscal and culture-war mess as Starmer’s Left-wing fanatics begin to flex their muscles. We are seeing taxes confined to the private sector, exemptions granted to the public sector, occupational pensions attacked, farmers losing inheritance tax concessions. Much worse, the Left (including the Wet and the Woke) has infiltrated the civil service, demanding hefty rewards for failure, and has undermined the ethos of our cherished universities by supporting the practice of cancel culture e.g. trying to silence J.K. Rowling, Margaret Attwood and many others. I am not talking about some catchpenny, dim universities but leading Oxbridge colleges taking “decolonisation” to absurd lengths, under the bogus guise of “diversity”, and cringing shamefully to attract Chinese cash endowments in the case of the University of Cambridge. John Milton and Dr Johnson, robust believers in free speech, must be spinning in their graves.

Europe is in an even worse pickle. After Macron blunders, France is without a government and a coalition looks impossible. Government by decree seems inevitable, bringing who-knows-what instability. Everywhere but Britain is moving Right - Spain, Italy and the Netherlands – German elections in February will probably move in the same direction. Ireland, grandstanding as ever and dependant on American investment, has amazingly so upset Israel over anti-Semitic criticism of actions in Gaza that the Israeli embassy has closed. Trump is highly supportive of Israel and hates European parasites – expect an American exodus from tax-dodging Ireland. This Nemesis will be richly deserved. Tact and diplomacy matter! The EU has long not been a powerhouse, but rather a millstone round the neck of her undoubtedly capable business community.

With the erosion of many of her great domestic institutions, and the palpable enmity of Russia, China, Iran and N.Korea, what is the West to do to defend herself? Well, first principles first; it must arm itself to the teeth and create modern, highly professional armies. NATO will remain a bedrock, but bi-lateral alliances may play a part. The best of Western values, toleration, freedom of speech, civil order, the rule of law, genuine compassion for the disadvantaged, all must be rigorously defended. We do not need to be shy of our superiority over “third world” economies, it is beyond dispute and likely to stay that way. We have no obligation to open our borders or grant asylum to impoverished masses, who bring their native fanaticisms and hatreds to our shores. They have their ample space – do not intrude enviously upon ours!

 

The West will slay the looming dragons threatening her– do not doubt it – and preserve her eternal values. Hallelujah!

 

SMD

17.12.24

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2024