Upside Down Cake

 

UPSIDE-DOWN CAKE

There is a traditional British confection, usually with a pineapple base, called an upside-down cake, and as I emerged, blinking, from winter hibernation and writer’s block, I thought that our world has a new, peculiar flavour, with old certainties up-ended and familiar tastes transformed. It will all take some getting used to, analysis will be intense and we would be wise not to rush to judgement. Modern humanity is restlessly dynamic and old alliances may wobble. If governments are elected on a platform of radical and rapid change, we can expect a bumpy, pot-holed journey.

Upside Down Cake (per Mary Berry)

Before we criticise others, we would be wise to contemplate our own navel. The UK is not a happy ship. It is a sharply polarised society- Left v Right, Woke v Traditional, North v South, Brexiteer v Eurofanatic. From 2010 to 2024 it had an inept Tory government, helped by facing an unelectable Labour opposition of loony Leftists. Its leaders, hollow Cameron, guileless May, erratic Boris, gambling Truss, or uninspiring Sunak, did not quicken the pulse. They were unlucky to encounter the Covid plague, but every country suffered that. Then Labour found new leadership in Keir Starmer and in 2024 convincingly won the election. Labour’s hour had struck.

What a disaster! With Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, the government made mistake after mistake. Unaffordable public sector salary rises, high tax increases on employers, class war attacks on private education, tax privileges withdrawn from many farmers. Doctrinal stuff poorly presented. UK politics became more fractured. Farage’s Reform Party capturing many on the Right, Lib Dems and Greens attracting the Woke dreamers, even the declining Nationalists getting a boost. Starmer himself often looks the part of PM but the public suspect that while he can master a brief as a lawyer, he lacks any inner conviction or driving principle. He will not long survive as leader. Faced with higher defence obligations and shaky public finances the UK must cut its coat sharply.

Britain’s unlikely saviours

The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 by a narrow margin and after many a wrangle finally left in 2020. The Brexiteers caught onto a popular current as the benefits of EU membership were not apparent to many; the civil service and the Establishment Blob loved the EU and yet every attempt was made by Europe to humiliate, frustrate, exploit and thwart the UK, notably by France, Germany and the EU Commission. The chances of the UK working happily with these people are very remote. Europe is much too disparate to agree any coherent policies, with wide economic and political gaps separating her various blocs. Only wishful thinking by dreaming Starmer can overcome this hard reality.

  

E Macron                                          U von der Leyen                            O Scholz

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

The ingredient in our cake which was once an enviable honey-pot but is now a flailing paprika-laden poison is our erstwhile ally, the United States of America. Donald Trump returned to office 100 days ago in January 2025, comfortably overwhelming Biden and Harris. In his campaign Trump had to dodge a few bullets, but his nationalistic MAGA message was consistently preached and lapped up. The world did not take Trumpism very seriously but had to rethink as Trump imposed high tariffs, which he levied erratically but hunkered down to a trade-war with China and South East Asia, formidable opponents.

Much worse, Trump kept shooting himself in the foot by changing sides in the Russia – Ukraine War, withdrawing military aid to Ukraine, praising Russia, disparaging NATO, insulting Zelensky, ignoring the EU. There have been some conciliatory gestures, but trust in Trump’s USA is rapidly melting. He also threatened Canada and Greenland with annexation, roundly condemned by them. This whole foreign policy issue has been treated by Trump as an expanded poker game and he has behaved with a degree of egotism and crassness which would have brought blushing shame to his many distinguished predecessors.

Yet the Trump regime has sound democratic credentials and there is some common sense in most of its policies. Trump complains about judgments against him (which he routinely evades) but he does not ignore the Constitution – he is a keen supporter of states’ rights. He pushes his programme by presidential edict as his majority in both houses of Congress is thin. He is a demagogue, but the US has seen quite a few of them in history. All the instincts of the UK public, all anglophonic, cultural and inherited values pull the UK towards the US. Relations are going through a rough patch. The UK needs to deploy all her diplomatic skills in re-establishing harmony and goodwill between our like-minded nations.

SMD

1.05.25 Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2025