As the blessed summer recess
sends MPs to their favourite faraway fleshpots where they hope their sins will
not be featured in The Sun, the more
contemplative Tory MPs wake up screaming in the night seeing horrid visions of
a fouled-up Brexit, lost constituencies and the nightmare of a Jeremy Corbyn
government putting the UK back 73 years to the advent of dismal Clem Attlee, or
even 370 years to the heyday of the Levellers. These MPs would normally simply
demand sharp action from
their Leader, but alas, their Leader is Theresa May, already found wanting on
numerous counts and as inspirational as a limp stalk of last month’s rhubarb. A
low murmur can be heard in the Shires and in the loyal heartland of England,
with due acknowledgement to Rogers and Hammerstein, asking in agony “How do you
solve a problem like Theresa?”
Theresa's time to depart |
Our erstwhile European “friends”
could offer rapid answers. The French could volunteer “Madame la Guillotine”,
the Czechs “Defenestration”, the Spanish “The Garrotte” and the Germans, spoilt
for choice from their own dark history, would suggest “The Firing Squad”. Of
course, the Russians deployed an ice-pick on Trotsky and pistol shots to the
forehead for Beria. The Americans have seen 4 Presidents succumb to an
assassin’s bullet but the British have only witnessed one violent end to a
Prime Minister and that was Spencer Perceval in 1812, but his assailant was
clearly deranged. No, we Brits want a constitutional solution for Theresa’s
finale, bloodless but decisive and irrevocable.
Sadly, the electoral arithmetic
could hardly be less promising. The Conservatives have no majority in
Parliament and depend on the support of the Democratic Unionists from Ulster.
Party
|
Seats
|
Conservative
|
316
|
Labour
|
258
|
Scottish National Party
|
35
|
Liberal Democrat
|
12
|
Democratic Unionist Party
|
9
|
Independent
|
7
|
Sinn Féin
|
7
|
Plaid Cymru
|
4
|
Green Party
|
1
|
Speaker
|
1
|
Total number of seats
|
650
|
Theresa was chosen as the Leader
to unify the badly split Tories – to paper over the cracks. She gambled but
lost in an attempt to strengthen her party’s position by calling a snap
election in June 2017, which made her position worse. Her own feeble campaigning
was much to blame. She has since
formulated her “Chequers” proposal, much too concessionary to the EU in the
view of most Brexiteers but supported by many other Tories. The EU has yet to
pronounce but recent experience is that it will react entirely negatively. A “no-deal”
Brexit is a real possibility with every Remainer Cassandra prophesying doom.
The torrent of gloomy predictions emanating from the Treasury since 2016 have actually
all proved false. Theresa might conceivably win a vote of confidence in the
Commons if some half-respectable deal were negotiated but a new man at the helm
would struggle to reconcile the 60-80 diehard Brexiteers with the 100 or so
tepid Remainer Tories and the mass of stolid backbenchers.
The fact is that Teresa is not a
believer in Brexit and has no vision of its stimulus and opportunities. The
other leading Tories - Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg, David Davis, Michael
Gove and Philip Hammond – are saving their powder for a showdown at the right
moment, but that moment has not yet arrived. Every delay makes Theresa better
entrenched and a feeble Brexit deal more likely. All great political parties
need maintenance, the speeches to warm the grass-roots, the flesh-pressing
bonhomie, the private words of confidence and appreciation from the Leader and
the convincing performances before the media – all little arts which Theresa
has failed to master. A party not thus maintained will fail and collapse as
surely as that ill-fated Morandi motorway bridge in Genoa.
An unmaintained Genoa bridge |
Utter despair is not the rational
reaction. Let us peek into the future, as I see it. A deal will emanate from
Brussels and London, not ideal, but as Gove said “Do not make the perfect the
enemy of the good”. The House of Commons by a free vote or (less likely) a
second referendum will approve the deal. All in the UK are heartily sick of the
Brexit discussions and want to move on, convinced that the EU is not our kind
of game nor led by our kind of people. A handful of Labour Brexiteers will
support the deal, and the views of the declining SNP, the moribund Liberal
Democrats and assorted oddballs outside the Tories may sway the parliamentary
vote. We will leave on 29 March 2019 as agreed with a transition period until
31 December 2020. What new alignments on Left and Right shall emerge? Soon
after 29 March a new Tory Leader will call and convincingly win a general
election.
Who knows? We will see!
SMD
26.08.2018
Text Copyright ©
Sidney Donald 2018.