UPSIDE-DOWN
CAKE
There is a traditional British
confection, usually with a pineapple base, called an upside-down cake, and as I
emerged, blinking, from winter hibernation and writer’s block, I thought that
our world has a new, peculiar flavour, with old certainties up-ended and
familiar tastes transformed. It will all take some getting used to, analysis will
be intense and we would be wise not to rush to judgement. Modern humanity is
restlessly dynamic and old alliances may wobble. If governments are elected on
a platform of radical and rapid change, we can expect a bumpy, pot-holed journey.
Upside Down Cake (per Mary Berry)
Before we criticise others, we
would be wise to contemplate our own navel. The UK is not a happy ship. It is a
sharply polarised society- Left v Right, Woke v Traditional, North v South, Brexiteer
v Eurofanatic. From 2010 to 2024 it had an inept Tory government, helped by
facing an unelectable Labour opposition of loony Leftists. Its leaders, hollow
Cameron, guileless May, erratic Boris, gambling Truss, or uninspiring Sunak,
did not quicken the pulse. They were unlucky to encounter the Covid plague, but
every country suffered that. Then Labour found new leadership in Keir Starmer
and in 2024 convincingly won the election. Labour’s hour had struck.
What a disaster! With Rachel
Reeves as Chancellor, the government made mistake after mistake. Unaffordable
public sector salary rises, high tax increases on employers, class war attacks
on private education, tax privileges withdrawn from many farmers. Doctrinal
stuff poorly presented. UK politics became more fractured. Farage’s Reform
Party capturing many on the Right, Lib Dems and Greens attracting the Woke
dreamers, even the declining Nationalists getting a boost. Starmer himself
often looks the part of PM but the public suspect that while he can master a brief
as a lawyer, he lacks any inner conviction or driving principle. He will not long
survive as leader. Faced with higher defence obligations and shaky public
finances the UK must cut its coat sharply.
Britain’s unlikely saviours
The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016
by a narrow margin and after many a wrangle finally left in 2020. The
Brexiteers caught onto a popular current as the benefits of EU membership were
not apparent to many; the civil service and the Establishment Blob loved the EU
and yet every attempt was made by Europe to humiliate, frustrate, exploit and
thwart the UK, notably by France, Germany and the EU Commission. The chances of
the UK working happily with these people are very remote. Europe is much too disparate
to agree any coherent policies, with wide economic and political gaps
separating her various blocs. Only wishful thinking by dreaming Starmer can overcome
this hard reality.
E Macron U von der Leyen O Scholz
With friends like these, who needs
enemies?
The ingredient in our cake which
was once an enviable honey-pot but is now a flailing paprika-laden poison is
our erstwhile ally, the United States of America. Donald Trump returned to
office 100 days ago in January 2025, comfortably overwhelming Biden and Harris.
In his campaign Trump had to dodge a few bullets, but his nationalistic MAGA
message was consistently preached and lapped up. The world did not take Trumpism
very seriously but had to rethink as Trump imposed high tariffs, which he
levied erratically but hunkered down to a trade-war with China and South East Asia,
formidable opponents.
Much worse, Trump kept shooting himself
in the foot by changing sides in the Russia – Ukraine War, withdrawing military
aid to Ukraine, praising Russia, disparaging NATO, insulting Zelensky, ignoring
the EU. There have been some conciliatory gestures, but trust in Trump’s USA is
rapidly melting. He also threatened Canada and Greenland with annexation, roundly
condemned by them. This whole foreign policy issue has been treated by Trump as
an expanded poker game and he has behaved with a degree of egotism and
crassness which would have brought blushing shame to his many distinguished predecessors.
Yet the Trump regime has sound
democratic credentials and there is some common sense in most of its policies. Trump
complains about judgments against him (which he routinely evades) but he does
not ignore the Constitution – he is a keen supporter of states’ rights. He
pushes his programme by presidential edict as his majority in both houses of Congress
is thin. He is a demagogue, but the US has seen quite a few of them in history.
All the instincts of the UK public, all anglophonic, cultural and inherited
values pull the UK towards the US. Relations are going through a rough patch.
The UK needs to deploy all her diplomatic skills in re-establishing harmony and
goodwill between our like-minded nations.
SMD
1.05.25 Text Copyright © Sidney
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