STILL LIFE

In 1667 the French classicist André Félibien set out the 4 genres of painting and graded them as follows;

1.       The depiction of human beings (far superior to all the others)

2.       Painting of living animals

3.       Landscape painting

4.       Painting of inanimate objects (what we call Still Life)

The lowly status assigned to Still Life may seem rather unjust and naturally reflects 17^th Century attitudes. It is to a degree paradoxical that now we consider Still Life a vibrant and subtle art form and a test of painterly virtuosity. Still Life subjects were enjoyed by the ancients as the 2^nd century Roman mosaic from the Vatican below demonstrates:

2nd Century AD Roman mosaic

For more than 1,000 years Still Life was then relegated to marginal illustrations of religious manuscripts and devotional art. It did not emerge as a separate art-form in itself until the 16 and 17^th century Golden Age of Netherlandish painting. The Dutch had a talent for accuracy; botanical collecting and tulip rearing were growing rapidly, later the Dutch Reformed Church outlawed religious art, so the stage was set for an explosion of Still Life. The flowers used below, for example, were often replete with symbolism.

Bouquet by Jan Brueghel the Elder (1599)

                                           

A special form of Still Life was the sub-genre Vanitas where the everyday objects were accompanied by a skull, hour-glass or other reminders of the transience of human life – creating a moral tale.

Harmen Steenwijck (1640)

The patronage of ecclesiastic princes and pious fraternities gradually faded and was replaced by educated nobility and even by an emerging middle class. In Spain pantry scenes, including food and serving-maids were popular, so called bodegón, epitomized by Velasquez’ A Woman frying eggs from the National Gallery of Scotland in Edinburgh.

A Woman frying eggs by Diego Velazquez (1618)

The 18th Century saw the Age of Rococo, when secular pleasures were celebrated. The most famous French painter of Still Life at this time was J-B Chardin, whose exquisite small works were much admired. Chardin demonstrated that changes in light, the handling of the paint stroke, choice of objects depicted, their position within the picture and selection of colour were all factors enhancing the impact of these works of art.

Popular with the Rococo audience were pictures depicting the bag of game after a day’s hunt. A favourite of Louis XV was Jean Baptiste Oudry:

Dead Game and Peaches by J_B Oudry (1727)

                                     

By the end of the 18^th century Still Life was in decline – more invidious Academic grading lists were published placing Still Life as the least worthy genre - but many famous artists persisted in this field, Delacroix, Courbet, Goya and the floral master Fantin-Latour fall into this category.

By the end of the 19^th century, partly as a revolt against the Academies but mainly in recognition of the intrinsic merits of the genre, the Impressionists and their heirs created a series of wonderful Still Life images.

Sunflowers, Van Gogh (1888)

Paul Gauguin (1889)

      

Our own times have seen an explosion of interest in the arts; animation and 3-D imaging has thrown  into confusion conventional painting techniques. Spare a generous thought for the struggling amateur Still Life artist – he or she is the successor to a great tradition.

SMD

20.07.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

ROCK REMEMBERED

As I loll around in my delightful Samos hotel, over-eating and drinking, my mind, never other than flippant, flits to the pop and rock music of my misspent youth mainly of 1955 – 1965 vintage – OK, “retro-rock nostalgia” you may sniff. I can happily consign to oblivion all thought of Brexit, the EU, Trump, Iranian clerics and their hideous retinues and instead get my feet tapping with those golden oldies which particularly appealed to me. You will all have quite different favourites!

1.       Singing the Blues by Tommy Steele. (1956)

Although Bill Haley had made some impression, it took home-grown Tommy Steele to make the critical breakthrough and open up the UK rock scene with this cheery number. Suddenly I recall everyone was whistling and singing this song in school corridors (I was 14). Tommy never repeated this smash-hit but he was very popular as a “cockney sparra”, regularly filled the London Palladium and had a long run in the West End hit “Half a Sixpence”, the musical adaptation of “Kipps’ by H G Wells.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDXnBdlKlVw

2.       Can’t Help Falling in Love with You by Elvis Presley (1969)

Elvis dominated the rock scene in the late 1950s, and although this is a much later number, his mastery of the romantic ballad went hand in hand with his more energetic efforts. The deep tones of his unmistakable voice send hearts a-quiver still and many a lovelorn suitor will emulate The King and sing this great song to their suitably grateful beloved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGJnTaP6anOU

3.       Rave On by Buddy Holly (1958)

Texan Buddy Holly and the Crickets entered the rock scene in 1955 and despite his geeky appearance and horn-rims was soon second only to Elvis in popular esteem. His Peggy Sue songs were iconic and he produced hit after hit. His death at 22 in an air crash was a huge shock to all his admirers. Rave On gives a flavour of his unforgettable talent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IUV-QxwlRM

4.       Good Golly, Miss Molly (1958) by Little Richard

Little Richard was rock personified. Endlessly dynamic, dressed garishly and with a voice which hit notes in the stratosphere, he would stand in front of a piano, hit keys with the heel of his boots, scream out the lyrics and grin demonically at his rapt audience. Tutti Frutti, Long Tall Sally and Lucille were part of his standard repertoire along with Good Golly, Miss Molly – all of which, of course, our dear parents hated. Young women threw their underwear to him in yearning tribute. He was a true pioneer and a major influence on a generation of rockers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQ6akiGRcL8

5.        Wonderful World by Sam Cooke (1960)

Sam Cooke was a talented singer and song-writer who moved over to rock, and later soul, from gospel singing. His Wonderful World is his most memorable number and his easy delivery style was much admired. His early promise never blossomed as he was shot dead by a lady motel manager in Los Angeles in 1964 after a drunken fracas, a premature finale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4GLAKEjU4w

6.       The House of the Rising Sun by The Animals (1964)

This rock classic formed part of the British Invasion of the US pop world in the wake of the Beatles. The 5-member Animals hailed from the North East of England and the best-known members were Alan Price and Eric Burdon. The song itself is an adaptation of an old English folk-tune, reset to New Orleans. There were other Animals hits like We gotta get out of this Place and Please don’t let me be Misunderstood but The Rising Sun is a tremendous anthem, if a trifle louche.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sB3Fjw3Uvc

7.       Let It Be by The Beatles (1970)

The Beatles were an irresistible force from 1963 to 1970 and early Beatles tracks much enlivened our undergraduate parties. They produced songs of quality and presented them in original ways. By about 1966 they abandoned deafening live concert performances and worked on studio albums. Their interests wandered off to psychedelia, Indian mysticism and drug culture and lost me. But at their best they were incomparable. Let it Be was their rueful farewell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDYfEBY9NM4

8.       A Whiter Shade of Pale by Procol Harum (1967)

This obscure English band produced a debut single which is one of the all-time greats. Its purported debt to Bach, the Baroque and god knows who else, elevates its status to higher levels than perhaps it deserves, but in any event it is highly enjoyable and easily evokes the spirit of the Sixties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb3iPP-tHdA

9.       Tonight I celebrate my Love for You by Roberta Flack and Peabo Bryson (1983)

This number unaccountably caught my attention in the 1980s when I had long moved away from rock and pop and was much happier with Purcell, Handel and Mozart. I liked the tune and the romance of it all, and recall the late, great Terry Wogan poking gentle fun at Bryson’s mother who had inflicted the name “Peabo” on his innocent son!

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GOLnWz_Osc

1 Lady in Red by Chris de Burgh (1986)

Again a one-off for me, simply a great song which gave me pleasure. Chris de Burgh was an unlikely pop star being the scion of a prosperous Anglo-Irish military family. He still performs and has a wide audience, less in the UK than on far-flung foreign shores.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9Jcs45GhxU

My 10 selections will not please everyone but so be it. I hope there are moments of pleasure for you all as you share my look back to the good old days and their fragrant memories!

SMD

14.07.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

DEMOCRACY IN ACTION

It has not been a great week for Democracy, the system we, at least nominally, profess to practice and admire. All systems have their drawbacks but somehow the negative aspects of government of the people, by the people, for the people have been seen lately in a sharp and unattractive focus.

The tumult in Hong Kong is part of a long sad story. Most of the bustling British colony was leased from the Chinese and had to be returned after 100 years. It was handed back in 1997 and became an autonomous part of China, with legal rights and liberties for 50 years unknown on the mainland. The Chinese proposed an extradition arrangement which alarmed HK; after massive, peaceful demonstrations the Chinese-appointed administration there backed down. Fine. Then a hot-headed faction of “democrats”, dissatisfied with the concession, attacked and vandalized the legislative building and violently resisted the riot police. The moral high ground has been handed to the Chinese, who could squash HK in a morning - and would, were it not for HK’s solid overseas financial contacts and investor-friendliness. The “democrats” have over-played their hand foolishly. Let us hope no permanent damage is caused.

Unwise rioting in Hong Kong

                       

The European Union proclaims what a democratic champion it is, not at all the autocratic, secretive and cynical institution painted by her detractors. Well, what are we to make of the process of nominating candidates for the top jobs falling vacant? It is supposed to be a quasi-democratic exercise (known as the Spitzenkandidat system), taking note of the relative party strengths in the European Parliament. In fact Merkel and Macron, abetted by Tusk and Juncker, master-minded a carve-up in a smoke-filled room which would do credit to the machinations of corrupt Tammany Hall bosses in early 20^th century New York. As usual, all earlier EU professions of high principle were abandoned when the going got tough. It was not a pretty sight and was miles away from anything democratic. Expect fireworks from the European Parliament, as some appointments require its approval.

Worse, the actual outcome of their deliberations was a list of nominees constituting the feeblest candidates possible to fill these important posts. Instead of bibulous Jean-Claude Juncker we are to have Ursula von der Leyen (who?) German Defence Minister, who is widely derided in Germany (“the worst of all the cabinet ministers”, thought one colleague). She has made little impact on politics at home and seems determinedly pedestrian, with no qualities matching her substantial duties. She is well turned out and she and her husband belong to the rich, aristocratic minority – and she is a pal of Angela Merkel. What more could you possibly want?

Overpromoted Ursula von der Leyen

                           

To succeed downbeat Donald Tusk as President of the EU Council, it has chosen Charles Michel, bald-headed Francophone prime minister of Belgium, a master no doubt of the irreconcilable coalition, but a colourless unknown outside his country. The other major appointment is notorious Christine Lagarde, current blundering head of the IMF, to succeed wily Mario Draghi as head of European Central Bank. Lagarde is a competition lawyer by trade and was a minister under Sarkozy (later mired in a scandal with entrepreneur Bernard Tapie). She knows nothing about central banking, a distinct art, and her ability to manage eurozone turmoil is widely doubted. Most of the other candidates have been bought off with deputyships, but Italy and the Slavic countries see their influence sharply diminished – a sure recipe for disunity. All in all, an undemocratic stitch-up.

 

Unappetising Charles Michel and Christine Lagarde

Last, but hardly least, we have the Brexit struggle in the UK. Parliament is split down the middle, with many ignoring the 2016 Referendum result, and the Tory government has no majority. The resignation of Theresa May has set off a succession free-for-all which resulted in Boris Johnson, a genuine Brexiteer with fire in his belly, facing an election by Tory Party members for the Leadership against Jeremy Hunt, a one-time Remainer pretending unconvincingly to support Brexit. As the Tory membership is overwhelmingly in the Leaver camp there is little doubt that Boris will emerge as winner.

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt

The challenge comes later, as he tries to negotiate with Brussels for a marginally better exit deal, amending the Irish backstop. These negotiations are likely to fail; Boris will not have a clear democratic mandate to exit from the EU on a no-deal basis. Rather than resort to sneaky manoeuvres like proroguing Parliament to slip a bill through, Boris would be well advised to hold a snap election in October to change the composition of Parliament. He will need an electoral pact with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, but pro-Brexit sentiment is probably 70% pro to 30% anti and he should win a landslide and the democratic backing he needs.

The long Brexit agony and the battle against the enemies of democracy will be over, not before time.

SMD

5.07.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

INSULT AND PREJUDICE

There was a shockingly intemperate attack in The Guardian a few days ago on Boris Johnson by the well-known journalist and war historian Max Hastings. Max’s piece saw no merit whatsoever in Boris and branded him as ”only interested in his own fame and gratification” and called him “a scoundrel or a mere rogue”. Max was Boris’ boss as editor of The Telegraph when Boris was a much-read Brussels correspondent. Max’s piece was quickly contradicted by Conrad Black, a controversial figure himself, who was the erstwhile proprietor of The Telegraph and of The Spectator which Boris had also edited. Conrad spoke well of Boris’ talents and his determination; he detailed Max’s disloyalty as an editor, but did not ignore his talents, although he characterized him as “a short-tempered snob” and concluded Max was “a coward and a flake.” It seemed obvious that Max’s original piece was infused by some deep personal bile, as it went way beyond the limits of normal controversial argument. All in all, an unsavoury and shameful spat.

Max Hastings

Conrad Black

  

       

Of course. controversial debates, be they political, literary or broadly cultural will easily generate exaggerated language and wild assertions. The temptation to “personalize” arguments should however be resisted. Attributing evil motives to those who express an opinion opposed to your own is not an argument – it is simply low name-calling – the proper course is to muster arguments to refute your antagonist. A recent example of this kind of name-calling was a violent Commons rant by the SNP leader there, pompous Ian Blackford, attacking all his opponents, which was so outrageous the Speaker had to intervene to shut him up. Blackford’s performance was an acute embarrassment to all fair-minded people, especially Scots.

Far more insidious is the desire of many in the “liberal elite” to outlaw speeches or participation by any person challenging their beliefs. It is almost incredible that purported “liberals” take this stance but the evidence is not to be denied. Typically a student society will invite an opponent of one of the cherished causes of the day to join a debate. A noisy synthetic furore will be stirred up and the “liberal bloc” will, parading its self-bestowed virtue, petition the vice-chancellor to cancel the visit. The vice-chancellor, inevitably a so-called “liberal” himself will unquestioningly sign the required fatwah. Free speech is the victim and such shenanigans undermine the meaning of a “university” at so many levels, that one despairs.

The fashionable causes that are routinely defended in this way include Immigrant rights, gender equality, Palestinian nationhood, nuclear disarmament and global warming. All of them involve the surrender or seizure of someone else’s interests and are open to quite legitimate criticism. American libertarians, often from the Right, are regularly silenced and figures on the UK Right suffer too. This includes curiously two very civilized debaters who choose their words carefully and are extremely polite in the face of the mob, namely Jordan Peterson and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Jordan Peterson

Jacob Rees-Mogg

No doubt we will continue to be assailed by “liberal” fanatics of all kinds. Many in the media have swallowed this mindset hook, line and sinker, notably The Guardian and the BBC, once, but alas no more, a beacon of the unvarnished truth.

 It is reasonable to have nightmares about a dystopian future, where Groupthink and Big Brother flourish and abject proles dutifully obey in the North Korean manner. Forewarned is forearmed however: get to know when facts and arguments are distorted and fake news disseminated. Above all, let us maintain the long-established standards of our civilized democracy.

SMD

26.06.19

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

USE YOUR HEAD

In Scotland there is a familiar expression, “Use your Heid!”, to command others to think before acting, to have an intelligent debate on the merits of a course of action rather than adopting a rashly gung-ho policy. It is good advice and those who take it are acting rationally and can progress further with a clear conscience. The Western world is led by US President Donald Trump, aged 73, who has just launched his campaign for re-election in 2020 and Britain is almost certain to see Boris Johnson, aged 55, appointed as Prime Minister next month. How much can we trust these two gentlemen to use their heads?

President Donald Trump

One hopes that Trump’s Scottish mother instilled some common sense into his son, but it has to be said this quality is not evident. He enjoyed a first-rate education yet he does not appear to be at all reflective. He has been brought up in high social circles but he is clumsily oafish in speech and manner. He has had much success in the property business, including some dire setbacks, and employs the tricks he learned there of bluff and bluster in his dealings with nations and seems to spurn the smoother, well established merits of diplomacy.

He has certainly shaken up American relations with allies and vowed fire and brimstone on her enemies but it is not clear how effective he has been. North Korea, Iran and Venezuela are unsubdued while Europe, China and Mexico are defensive and suspicious. At home the US prospers, whether because of, or despite, Trump policies, the roller-coaster of Trump’s boasts and tweeted exaggerations rolls on to our confusion and the personnel of his administration spin alarmingly through the revolving door.

Trump has a huge domestic following; to borrow a phrase from H L Mencken “He knows how to enchant the boobery”. An audience of toiling small-town yokels, hard-grafting farmers, the aspiring blue collared in rust-belt industries, those of an evangelical turn of mind, rise to Trump in a storm of ecstasy as he intones his mantra “Make America Great Again”. It is not our UK politics, but it plays well to a large US constituency. The Democrats are in feeble disarray; a Trump landslide beckons.

Trump has been described as a Narcissist after the beautiful Greek youth in myth who fell in love with his own image. Stephen Fry in his Mythos fills in the picture with this expert quote:

“Narcissistic personality disorder, much talked about these days, is marked by vanity, self-importance, a grandiose hunger for acclaim and applause, and above all with an obsession with self-image. The feelings of others are railroaded and stampeded, while such considerations as honesty, truthfulness or integrity are blithely disregarded. Bragging, boasting and delusional exaggeration are common signs. Criticism or belittlement is intolerable and can provoke aggressive and explosively strange behaviours”

This is Trump to a T. One can grasp at straws – his apparent moderation on attacks on Iran, maybe a willingness to compromise with Mexico. Surely the world will shudder but repeat in hope – “Donald, use your Heid!” and pray that, should Donald finally go berserk, his entourage has his strait-jacket close to hand.

------------------------

Britain has another psychologically interesting leader in waiting. Born in New York into the purple of the UK moneyed elite, Boris excelled at Eton and Balliol, Oxford. An MP since 2002, Boris Johnson was Mayor of London 2008-16 and later Foreign Secretary for 2 years under Theresa May. He led with Michael Gove the 2016 campaign supporting Brexit which narrowly won the referendum. He writes extensively as a journalist and has edited The Spectator. He is a witty and talented fellow.

Unpredictable Boris Johnson

But Boris is a difficult person to read. He seems to be surrounded by family and sibling rivalry. His paternal great-grandfather was Kemal Ali, an Ottoman Muslim liberal poet who married into the English upper class, his wife dying in childbirth, then he returned to the crumbling Porte to be briefly Minister of the Interior in 1919 before being kidnapped and then brutally lynched by a republican mob in the convulsions of 1922. His father Stanley is a writer, academic and former Europhile MEP while his sister Rachel is a busy journalist and Liberal Democrat. His brother Jo was a protégé of David Cameron and is a Tory MP of Remainer views.

The merits of Boris are that, on his day, he can be a highly persuasive speaker and he strikes a chord with the English electorate. He is a much more effective vote-catcher than any other Tory as his campaigns for the London mayoralty and for Brexit demonstrated. He brings Fire to his causes in a Promethean fashion and would be a priceless leader at a Tory general election at an appropriate time.

His eye for detail is questioned though as London Mayor he delegated effectively. He needs to build bridges with his Tory rivals Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove and use them in the inner counsels of his administration.

On the debit side, Boris is cordially loathed by the London glitterati, literati and cognoscenti. They are generally fanatical Remainers and many are Wreckers, determined to frustrate the government and people at every turn. Boris’ constituency is in a minority in London, but embraces all those outside the metropolis who feel under-valued or unheard – this is a multitude.

Boris has toffish ways; he has not shaken off “That ineffable air of effortless superiority which so distinguishes a Balliol man” and this jars with many, especially chip-on-the-shoulder Scots! He has a roving eye for the ladies, is twice married and divorced and has had various liaisons. His present squeeze is Carrie Symonds, a Conservative PR lady and a noisy quarrel at their house 2 days ago ended up with the police being called, seized on by the Leftie Guardian newspaper and arch-Wrecker Tory Dominic Grieve MP sniffing about “character being a factor in the Leadership race”. These are negatives Boris must avoid.

The prize of the Tory Leadership is well within his grasp. Boris, zip up, behave and Use your Heid!

SMD

22.06.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

A CHANGE OF SCENE

I have embarked on a 2-month holiday to glorious Greece, where the sun shines reliably and my UK obsession with Brexit can be at least tempered if not entirely eliminated. Greece has her own general election on 7 July likely to bring the curtain down on the 4-year leftie SYRIZA experiment and restore a conservative government under New Democracy leader Kyriakos (“Koulis” to his enemies) Mitsotakis. He is the relatively inexperienced champion of the Mitsotakis/Bakoyannis dynasty – a late father, Konstantinos, Prime Minister, a sister, Dora, ex-Foreign Minister, a nephew, Costas, newly Mayor of Athens. One can only hope the bad old days of serial corruption do not return to blight Greece’s slow recovery……….the long-suffering Greeks deserve much better.

The senior Mitsotakis clan, the late Konstantinos, Kyriakos and Dora

                                     

                               

We flew to Greece by Swiss via Zurich. Swiss is the successor to Swissair which stumbled at the financial crisis and is now a subsidiary of Lufthansa. This is the third time we have used them and our pampered business class journey was excellent and comfortable. It is always striking to me how democratically inclusive European travel is, Brits mixing easily with Germans, French, Swiss, Greeks plus many Americans, Australians and Arabs. We are part of this – but the Swiss, closer cousins than we are to the French and Germans, prosper happily outside the institutions of the EC, as we can too.

Monday was one of the many religious holidays (Pentecost) in Greece, this time celebrating The Holy Spirit. Oddly, only intellectually stretching businesses are closed, banks, lawyers, clinics and so on while supermarkets and “ordinary” shops were open. Anyway, the streets were deserted as most citizens, both spiritual and prosaic, made a bee-line for the beach. Sensible fellows!

One of the joys of holidaying is that you read more than usual. Lately I have been buying popular best sellers, thrillers and so on, to soften the austerity of my usual fare, histories and biographies. In anticipation of Greece, I have almost finished erudite Stephen Fry’s Mythos, a sprightly canter through Greek myth. I have taken to reading Georges Simenon’s Maigret stories, a vast oeuvre but individually mercifully short, perfect for my feeble attention-span. To edify and instruct, I will read 12 Rules for Life by the Canadian savant Jordan Petersen, who seems to have many admirers. I doubt if I will be an easy convert: I recall trying to read William Law’s A Serious Call to a Devout and Holy Life about 55 years ago and my failure to answer the Call is evident to all my friends! After all this, I will read Max Hastings’ tome Vietnam, my sort of book, but inevitably a melancholy and cautionary tale – I hope Donald Trump reads it in case intervention in Iran or Syria tempts him.

The prolific Belgian Georges Simenon

        

As I write, we are having a violent thunder-storm, with intense rain and hail-stones This is not the stereo-typical June day in Athens and I feel sorry for the swim-suit clad tourists who will be bothered and bewildered and have to console themselves with ouzo and hastily-cooked kebabs by the chilly coast. I am sure it will improve soon. I have my favourite sea-side haunts too and I hope to get to matchless Delphi as well as a visit to our cherished island of Samos.

Tonight, my thoughts will be on the Tory leadership race and the elimination process. I do hope Rory Stewart falls by the wayside soon. He no doubt has many merits but he is a Remainer through and through and his political future, if he has one, is in a post-Brexit UK, probably led by Boris Johnson. Enough said.

SMD

18.06.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019

A CROWDED FIELD

The contest for the Leadership of the Conservative Party – and hence succession to the Premiership – starts next week and there are already 13 contenders. By any standards that is a crowded field and we know that in a crowded field some horses trip over, knock others sideways and obstruct the rest. So, we can be sure of a spirited if not an elegant race. The field is not strikingly attractive with no obvious thoroughbreds, a few old nags, some bouncy fillies and quite a number with no form at all.

The contenders face two quite different electorates. To start with, they are whittled down to two by the 313 Conservative members of Parliament, a group containing a bloc of convinced Brexiteers but most of the others are tepidly agnostic with a few fanatical Remainers. A series of votes are taken and the surviving two are then put to the 124,000-strong national membership of the Party. This membership is thought to be pro-Brexit and it is quite likely that the MPs will have slimmed the field down to one Brexiteer and one erstwhile Remainer – I guess Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid.   I must say my prophecies should be taken with a large pinch of salt – I have got previous contests entirely wrong and my recent predictions on Eurovision, for example, were wildly off the mark!

Dominic Raab, my tip for the top job

Sajid Javid, his likely rival

Today the bookies’ favourites are Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab but I fear Boris has too many enemies in Westminster to last the course. He has “curb appeal”, instantly recognizable with his untidy shock of blond hair. He has a broad cosmopolitan culture, a keen sense of humour and is an effectively persuasive campaigner. He was a success in his 8-year term as Mayor of London. And yet……..He has an excessive liking for the ladies by prim Home Counties standards, is erratic and harrumphing in his utterances and is short of gravitas, retaining too much of his spoilt-brat, toffish Etonian aura. He suffers too from the burden of endorsement by Donald Trump. Boris’ colleague Michael Gove deserted him crucially in 2016, doubting, it is said, Boris’ capacity for detailed hard work. Boris would enliven any team, even inspire it, but perhaps does not possess the utter dedication of a Thatcher.

Boris’ handicaps rather open the door to Dominic Raab, aspirational, meritocratic, recently immersed in EU politics and belonging to the right age-group. He is a straight-forward and eloquent Leaver even though he does not have a high public profile. He is an easy choice.

The other Big Beast of the Brexit camp is Michael Gove himself, whom I greatly like, not least because he is a Scotsman from my native Aberdeen. He is the most cerebral of the Tory candidates, he speaks very well, debates intelligently and calmly and he has shown his mettle and his grip in the ministerial offices he has held. Alas, the Tories in the shires have not forgiven him for knifing Boris in 2016 and his loyalty to Theresa and her dud Withdrawal Bill counts against him. He has no chance of the leadership, but surely will have major office in a future Tory government.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove - 2 Big Beasts I think will fall short

There are 3 strong women candidates – Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Penny Morduant – all talented and solid citizens – but they are not likely to get far in this crowded field. Other ambitious contenders are just too obscure to be taken seriously – Matt Hancock, Rory Stewart, James Cleverly, Graham Brady and Kit Malthouse.  The Party rules for this contest allow any Tom, Prick or Tristram to throw his hat into the ring irrespective of his real support – a rule change is indicated.

Two more serious contenders are capable (and rich) Jeremy Hunt and admirable Sajid Javid. Hunt does not get my pulses racing but has been a reliable minister. I see the merits of Javid, the self-made son of a Pakistani bus-driver in Bradford – the incarnation of the Tory One Nation dream. He too is a late convert to Leave and will attract the cautious vote. Whatever, we will know soon enough who the two surviving candidates are; a final choice will be made in mid-June and the victor will emerge in July.

Of course, all this may be made irrelevant by House of Commons obstruction. I guess a Brexiteer will win the Tory race and head the Government and then the focus will be on Parliament. With the EC declining to negotiate further, the May Withdrawal Bill is all that can be tabled. All opposition MPs are adamantly opposed to a “no-deal Brexit” i.e. leaving without an agreement with the EC, and instead operating on World Trade Organisation terms involving mutual tariffs. The Theresa May deal is anathema to Tory Brexiteers and is certainly wholly unacceptable to the large numbers supporting Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the country, though he has no MPS. Will anyone move or will we progress inexorably to civil disturbances and instability? The Wreckers in Parliament, the Speaker – and at one remove, the BBC, the Bank of England and the Establishment- will have much to answer for. A general election could break the Westminster logjam, probably at the cost of destroying the Tory, Labour and LibDem parties, all three of whom would fragment hopelessly.

We need a sure-footed guide out of this morass!

SMD

31.05.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019