It has been rather a good month or so for those, like me,
who want Britain to forge an entirely new relationship with the European Union.
UKIP polled a strong 23% in the local elections mainly in the English shires;
two respected Tory cabinet ministers, Michael Gove and Philip Hammond have said
they would vote to quit the EU if a referendum on membership were held now;
David Cameron repeated his pledge of an in/out referendum by 2017 if he won the
2015 election and encouraged a private members’ bill to enshrine this in law;
as usual the EU in Brussels shot itself in the foot by having to withdraw
ill-considered and draconian new banking capital adequacy rules, not to mention
a humiliating retreat after absurdly trying to ban restaurants using olive oil
jugs.
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| Nigel Farage celebrates |
Anti-EU sentiment in Britain, fuelled by Brussels’ appalling
mismanagement of the Eurozone crisis, is running high and UKIP is the immediate
beneficiary. Farage beats his populist drum with some gusto and he personally
has much appeal. Already having won 11 of the 71 British seats available in the
European Parliament, thanks to proportional representation, UKIP will surely at
least double this number in the forthcoming 2014 elections. Yet that may be the
apogee of UKIP. Farage has been a useful gadfly, hassling Cameron and
delighting the Greeks and others by being extremely rude to van Rompuy,
Barroso, Rehn and all the Brussels gang. Yet in a 2015 British general
election, the first-past-the-post system squeezes the smaller parties: UKIP is
a one-issue party, despite contrary efforts, and few know or care about its
stance on other issues save on the sensitive matter of immigration. The Tories
will gain most of the votes dropped by a fading UKIP.
David Cameron’s hand has been much strengthened by recent
events. The rise of UKIP lends credibility to his insistence on EU reform as
does the explicit euro-scepticism of Gove and Hammond, let alone past
Chancellors like Healey, Lawson and Lamont. As a democratic politician he must
respond to the public mood: all he can do at present is to promise a referendum
– he can handily blame his euro-fanatic Liberal Democrat coalition partners for
the delay. The private member’s bill will fail to get its majority but Labour
and the Lib-Dems are forced into a decision on the timing and wording of the
referendum. Their manoeuvres to wriggle out will alienate the electorate and
lose them votes. This is good politics on Cameron’s part; he can claim to be
the steady champion of Britain’s interests. By late September 2014 he will have
seen off the SNP challenge with the rejection by referendum of Scottish
Independence. The Tories will be well placed to win the 2015 election outright
with the Lib-Dems splitting into Clegg and Cable camps and Labour’s Ed Miliband failing to enthuse voters with his
ineffable collection of ancient Hampstead nostrums.
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| David Cameron, playing a long game well |
Cameron is right that the 2015 election will be won or lost
on confidence in the revival of the economy and on key domestic issues like
welfare and educational reform. The trend on all three is in his favour. After
a shaky period, Cameron is taking a grip on these matters: his managerial
skills far surpass those of the Opposition.
The Tory Party is famously “a broad church” and keeping this
fissiparous entity on song is a great trial. The Tories have long been
criticised for “banging on about Europe” but it is an issue central to the
nation’s future. Cameron’s strategy of a renegotiation followed by a referendum
to resolve Britain’s position is rational, and most fair-minded British voters
would give him his chance.
Geoffrey Howe, arch-defeatist, opines that no substantive
concessions from Europe will be forthcoming. Well, we will see. I expect
Cameron to say that Britain wants the closest possible cooperation on trade
matters, the repatriation of many powers and no British participation in
banking, fiscal or political union. If the response from Brussels is not
positive, Britain may well opt for withdrawal.
In time Cameron will be roused to give us his vision of
Britain outside Europe. It should be inspirational. Our native talent, our
commercial and financial expertise, our global connections earn us a proud
place in the world. After over 40 uneasy years in Europe, Britain will be
living in her own skin again, thinking and acting in her own distinctive way
and creating her own exemplary destiny.
SMD
26.05.13
Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2013
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