SHIFTING ALLEGIANCES

I am sure I am not the only one sensing that new political currents are flowing strongly in Britain, Europe and the world which are of great significance to the life of our own and younger generations. The old certainties are crumbling: Neo-Con Democracy is no longer ranged against Socialist Idealism. The Conservative mind-set is veering further right, the Centre cannot hold and the Left is worshipping new icons altogether. Religious fanaticism, once thought dead and buried, menaces our world again. A flurry of elections is due in later 2015, a severe test for the established parties and the results are likely to be alarming.

In the UK a general election will be held on 7 May. At present Cameron’s 302 Tories rule with 56 Liberal Democrat supporting in a formal coalition in the 650 seat legislature. Labour has 256 seats, SNP (Scottish Nationalists) have 6, and there is a rag-bag of other parties.

Osborne and Cameron, competent but uncharismatic

The outcome is very uncertain. The polls put Cameron marginally ahead and he may win seats in the West of England from the Lib Dems who face at least a halving of their representation. But the Tories will lose some seats to Labour as the usual pendulum swings against them – the question is, how many losses? Labour itself faces severe losses in Scotland to the even more Leftist SNP, probably at least 30 seats. UKIP could poll rather well but it may not win any seats, such being the oddity of the non-proportional first-past-the-post- system. A Tory minority government or a Labour-SNP coalition are both real possibilities.

Mliband and Sturgeon: The UK's new masters?

The big issues may become obscured. A significant SNP presence in Westminster, helped by a feisty campaign performance from articulate but deeply deluded Nicola Sturgeon, will upset the constitutional balance with English members forcing zero participation by non-English members in English legislation (as in devolved Scotland, Wales and Ulster). Euro-sceptics, like myself, will be frustrated if a referendum on UK withdrawal from the EU is postponed without a Tory win. If inept Miliband’s Labour win, the need for tight economy will be neglected, the SNP will put Scotland’s interests before those of the UK and the Trident nuclear deterrent may be scrapped – the SNP want it scrapped for sure – and our defence capability will be badly damaged at a dangerous time.

I am these days a natural Tory voter but I do find the party’s concentration on deficit reduction rather arid. I would also like an inspirational speech from someone on how well the UK would fare outside the EU – we so miss wonderful Margaret Thatcher! Cameron says he wants to stay in if he negotiates a decent deal, (Europe not even willing to talk about it), but I do not believe his heart is anywhere engaged in contemplating Brexit; maybe the necessary inspiration will come from erratic Boris Johnson. Otherwise the vacuum will be filled eloquently by Nigel Farage of UKIP, who speaks for many Britons on this issue, even if his demonising of immigrants is shameful. The election will be fascinating.

Across Europe the long dominance of Gaullist, Christian Democrat and Conservative is coming to an end. The electorates are fed up of fat-cat political elites, remote from the concerns of ordinary people. Here in Greece my Tory instincts should find nothing to cheer in the advent of loony leftist SYRIZA (even in alliance with conservative Independent Greeks). But actually I support SYRIZA in trying to shake free of Brussels-imposed and ill-performing austerity. A stroll in Athens soon pricks the social conscience as depressed and deprived people are everywhere and need the meagre social benefits provided by the state – which Brussels wants further to cut! The Greeks are erratic and difficult but the behaviour of Europe, particularly of Schaeuble and Dijssenbloom, is that of predatory loan sharks, an indictment of the whole Eurozone ethic. SYRIZA is the herald of many other Left-wing gains in Europe, even if it is effectively crushed by today’s Euro-masters. 2015 elections in Spain will set the scene.

Heroes of the Left: Tsipras and Varoufakis of SYRIZA

There is emerging a deep fault-line between Mediterranean and Northern Europe, with France uncomfortably on the fence. Germany and her satraps run relatively successful economies. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece struggle to compete with the North (which despises them all). All 4 need devaluations and a re-arrangement of their debt, possibly even creditor haircuts, as Varoufakis of Greece has long advocated. Maybe there should be a Mediterranean Euro and a Northern Thaler – but no serious thinking seems to have gone into this issue. Insisting on the short-sighted policy of spending cuts, higher taxes and unemployment will ultimately destroy the Eurozone unnecessarily.

Europe is stuttering economically and is beset by enemies to the East. Russia behaves aggressively under Putin, has already seized Crimea from Ukraine and is undermining the Ukraine with its sponsorship of rebels in Donetsk. Putin will probe all weak spots in the 3 Baltic Republics and in Belarus or Moldova. Putin does not accept the loss of the USSR and wants to reclaim territories once dominated by Russia. Only the low price of oil holds him back; armed conflict is quite probable and the determination of NATO, where relevant, will be fully tested. A new Danzig or Sarajevo incident could provide a pretext for a hideous conflagration, unless wisdom prevails.

More immediate is the crisis in the Moslem world. A huge number of Moslem fanatics have embraced the archaic notions of the Islamic State seeking to revive the Caliphate in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, spreading now to anarchic Libya. This grotesque movement is financed by Saudi Arabia and by some of the Gulf States and is imbued by Saudi Wahhabi ideology. Egypt, Iran and Shia-dominated Iraq are resisting but the attitude of the Maghreb states, Turkey and those in the sub-Continent and points East is unknown. The West is disgusted and appalled by gruesome filmed murders and beheadings in the name of Allah.

Desperate Mediterranean migrants escaping ISIL and the Moslem world

Instability in the Moslem world spurs large waves of illegal immigration especially by sea to Italy and Greece, but ultimately throughout Western Europe. 900 drowned yesterday off Libya. The wretched, exploited migrants need asylum but they cannot be absorbed; waiting for calm in the Islamic world and a wholesale return may take a long time. Meanwhile anti-immigrant agitation and fear of Moslem terror will only grow, poisoning community solidarity. The Moslem world needs to reform itself, making its citizens take pride in belonging to it.

Our European attitudes are being put to the test. We need also to cope with the steady rise of China and India on top of the Moslem turmoil, the enigma of Russia, Eurozone exhaustion and the move Left. The American crutch, once the cure-all, is only tentatively proffered these days. Our old prosperous toleration is no longer available or adequate. Hard choices may need to be made if our way of life is to flourish again.

SMD

20.04.15

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2015