THINGS GO WRONG

We expect our world to go off the rails from time to time, but these last few weeks have seemed more than usually turbulent. As if the global Covid-19 pandemic were not enough of a handful, we in the UK have to face an almost insoluble Brexit deadlock with the EU, working up to a new crisis; the US has a sudden major upsurge in racial disharmony, polarising opinion dangerously with perils for all in that heavily armed nation; the Chinese are destabilising Hong Kong and upping the ante in their poker game with the West. Putin’s Russia lurks in the shadows, mischief-making where it can.

In the UK, the Conservative government of Boris Johnson is struggling badly in the fight against Covid-19. Even giving ministers the benefit of most doubts, their performances has been unconvincing and inept. From the very start, there have been shortages of protective equipment (“PPE”), very poor testing capacity and obscurity about those statistics they had. The imposition of a total Lockdown mimicked other countries but made a huge bail-out inevitable and destroyed the public finances.

Test, Track and Trace equipment, software and personnel are not ready, the ability of the NHS to deal with a patient influx was under-estimated and scientific opinions on the way to tackle the pandemic have sharply disagreed. Although some real progress has been made, the infection rate remains high locally, and the death rate is not falling very quickly. The neglected care home sector, tending the most vulnerable, has witnessed some tragic outbreaks, decimating residents and spreading guilt and grief. In March, Sir Chris Whitty, The Chief Medical Officer, said that “20,000 deaths would be a good outcome” – today the toll exceeded 40,000, presumably a highly disappointing outcome, with many more deaths to come.

Solid if uninspiring Matt Hancock

It has not been obvious that our government has been on top of this crisis. The Health Secretary Matt Hancock is in the hot seat and works hard, but he has swallowed NHS insistence on doing all without outside assistance and is in thrall to the “experts”. We get little sense of a competent political group directing the virus fight. We have had the Cummings imbroglio, Pritti Patel imposing draconian travel quarantine regulations, killing off holiday hopes and Jacob Rees-Mogg twittering on about how he will have to ask Nanny to cut his hair! The public has not been impressed.

This government was elected above all to deliver Brexit and this has been achieved legally but we do not have an ongoing agreement with the EU. It is clearly in the interests of both parties to come to an agreement but egos, alleged national interests, precedents and emotions get in the way and weary all citizens. The UK offers tariff free access to the EU if a reciprocal deal is offered, but the EU insists on EU standards and EU court oversight, absurdities unacceptable to an independent sovereign nation. The EU makes it a condition that an agreement on fisheries is signed first, based on the status quo, but that would give the EU undeserved advantages compared to many other such agreements. There may be some wriggle room but a messy no-deal exit is looking likely, damaging to all parties. Angela Merkel promises to engage in the negotiations from September but she is not likely to budge far from the Eurocrats’ visceral desire to “punish” the UK for her temerity in leaving their cosy, corrupt and protectionist club. This problem needs Boris’ undivided attention, charm and ingenuity, but he has been decidedly lack-lustre in recent weeks.

A failure on Brexit coupled with a failure on Covid-19 would leave Boris friendless in Parliament and in the country. Such a horrendous outcome would engender despair in Middle England and exacerbate division, pleasing only to the extremists. The stakes are high.

The US is also fighting Covid-19 and have already clocked up a ghastly 100,000 fatalities. Donald Trump, never short of an opinion but ignorant of the science, advocated taking hydroxychloroquine and suggested bleach injections, to his medical team’s alarm. Trump faces a re-election battle in November and the pandemic has ended his chance to present a glowing picture of national prosperity. The killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police and the subsequent turmoil has given Trump a different card to play – respect for the values of Evangelical and Conservative America. Hence, we were treated to the spectacle of Trump waving about a Bible in front of an Episcopal church and Donald and Melania bending their knees at a statue of Pope John Paul II.

Donald posturing with a Bible

The killing of George Floyd has set off mass protests in America and Europe. This death was disgraceful, a clear example of the discriminatory relationships suffered by blacks, the poor and minorities in the US and in the world bringing into the open long-suppressed grievances surrounding housing, education and employment opportunities.

Alas, George Floyd himself was not a credible role-model. He moved to Minneapolis after being released from prison after a 5-year sentence for armed robbery. He was a big, brawny man, who had worked as a night-club bouncer; the autopsy found evidence of drug use. We might speculate that he was a tough, maybe violent customer, known to the police. With this unpromising hero, large crowds have demonstrated globally against racism, spilling over into vandalism, smashing windows and looting on 5^th Avenue, NYC and elsewhere.

BLM Demonstration in Denver

                                                   

The shrill Black Lives Matter activists are targeting many diverse issues, usually of the Leftie variety. In America, Trump’s opposition to them and his flag-waving defiance will resonate with his constituency. Although most people in Europe cannot understand why anyone would dream of re-electing crass Trump, who is well behind in the polls, but he plays well with a broad strain of smaller-town Americans. His November 2020 Democratic opponent is “Sleepy Joe” Biden (77), who suffers from his charismadectomy, and who could easily lose to media-savvy Trump, a glutton for headlines, sensations and shock revelations.

I would much prefer even feeble Biden to win, but Trump will probably hold on to his Presidential office. Bad luck, America and the world!

A growing problem for the West is the brutal new assertiveness of China. We have watched, in masterly inactivity, as China has:

-          Developed her trade enormously, so that many countries, like Australia and much of Africa, are dependent upon her.

-          Pursued a “forward” policy in the South China Sea, threatening Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Military conflict would be disastrous.

-          Defied calls from many countries for an investigation into the origin of Covid-19, perhaps in a Wuhan lab, and perhaps (we would hope!) released accidentally.

-          Sparked off fears of abusing shared technological information, likely to result in China’s exclusion from Western contracts, like the Huawei/5G one in the UK.

-          Decided to impose comprehensive “security” laws on Hong Kong, designed to snuff out dissent, creating a crisis for liberal elements there.

The future of Hong Kong is a direct British interest as any breach of the 1997 Sino-British Agreement endangers the status of 3m Overseas British passport holders. Already Britain has said she will relax immigration rules for this group and indeed industrious Chinese should be welcome immigrants to the UK. If Hong Kong is simply taken over by China, the entrepot trade via HK could disappear and undermine the prosperity of key banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered. China is the unloved elephant in the room and she cannot be ignored. President Xi Jinping will face isolation unless he takes a more conciliatory line with the outside world, but there is currently little hope of this.

We face testing times, but even at these low points, confidence in the ultimate strength of Western Democracy remains solid. Our politicians need to stay smart, be well briefed and be responsive to their electorates without being swept away by transitory enthusiasms. Develop rational plans and protect our common values. Never Say Die!

SMD

07.06.20

Text © Copyright Sidney Donald 2020