We are impatiently awaiting the end of
Pandemics and Lockdowns. We are already frayed at the edges and yearn for a
return to an ordered, sociable and civilised life and to the prompt return of
the freedoms temporarily lost during the emergency. I will not stray into the
immediate plans of our present bunch of third-rate politicians but instead
raise my eyes to the New World we will soon be stumbling through. I am a
retired oldie, with very limited ambitions and horizons, but many of you, my
readers, are enjoying the prime of life and have bursting energy to seize the
opportunities which will present themselves globally. For our Old World is
going to change radically and we all must adapt.
An Empty City of London
An Empty Regent Street in London’s
West End
The necessities of Lockdown have propelled
commerce and industry to embrace, much earlier than forecast, the latest
technologies and novel ways of working. Home working is now well established, often
with all necessary digital equipment provided by employers. It appears to be
every bit as productive as office working. Businesses are learning how to train
home workers and integrate them into the culture of their employer. At most,
one day a week may be required for group personal interaction – the other 4
days of home working will have the benefit of zero commuting, looser hours and
more time for wife and family (or their equivalent). We are social beings and I
assume post-Covid we will be free to meet up with all and sundry and travel
where we will.
The elephant in the room is the fate of
Britain’s forests of metropolitan offices – in the likes of The City, Canary
Wharf, West End and in Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Edinburgh – home
working could see them empty rapidly. These reliably growing (and highly lucrative)
property interests have made entrepreneurs seriously rich and underpin the
value of many a fund or share portfolio. Yet they could simply go poof! and spectacularly
so.
Severe reductions in commuting will have other
effects. Transport will have to recalibrate with far fewer trains and fewer
peak periods. City centre businesses will languish or move to other, cheaper
catchment areas. Populations will shift: why live in some deadening South
London suburb when you could be on the South Coast? Maybe the reduction in
offices could mean instead a rejuvenation of central areas if many more flats
were built and “entertainment” complexes emerged.
Looking further ahead, is there employment for
everybody? So many clerical or unskilled jobs can be done efficiently, using
artificial intelligence and robots. Self-driving vehicles and transport systems
may make redundant an army of bus, railway and airline staff, joined by
warehouse and wholesale people. Every state may be faced with a growing pool of
un- or under-employed citizens who will need an ever-increasing financial
safety-net and to be appeased with bread and circuses to keep them acquiescent.
A State-produced
happiness drug
Another problem of our New World may be the
polarisation in society between the minority of busy contributors and the
majority of relatively idle hands. The divide will be even greater than our
existing gaping social chasms. Recent experience suggests that achieving
agreement between the various classes will not be possible. Democracy may be a
casualty with a search for a Strongman (“Big Brother”), rule by decree and a
regimented lifestyle. I do not want to paint a wholly dystopian picture but we
may need to brush up on our Huxley, Orwell, Golding and Attwood!
Ever the optimist, let us instead explore a
sunnier scenario, to lift our spirits and stimulate our warmest hopes. We will
emerge from the Covid crisis healthier and wiser. Commuting will be in decline
but the pace of change may be slower. A huge building boom of city centre
residences on brown land, of new settlements outside London and of recalibrated
infrastructure will save the jobs and swell the ranks of building workers,
joiners, plumbers and electricians and their supporting businesses. A quickly
recovering UK will generate the taxes substantially to reduce budget deficits
and to attract foreign investors.
Surveying The Promised Land
Trading arrangements with the EU will be
settled amicably on a pragmatic basis without the panic of deadlines and
ultimatums. International travel, holidays and business, will resume, in due
course with hydrogen powered aircraft. Eating more fruit and veg and less red
meat will improve our health and our air quality and we will soon live in a
world flowing with milk and honey (calm down, Sidney). A liberal Tory or
moderate Labour government will return our beloved UK to being a proud and
happy land capable of prospering mightily in the brave New World!
SMD
24.9.20
Text copyright © Sidney Donald
2020
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