JULY CATCHES FIRE

 

We knew that the post-Covid period would be difficult, as many in the working population had got used to the insidious attraction of “working from home”. We knew that there were gaps in the workforce, caused by Lockdown and new Brexit rules, which surfaced first on travelling and hospitality. We knew that the war in Ukraine squeezed many European economies and exacerbated an already rising cost-of-living increase. It was no surprise that the beleaguered NHS started to buckle again under the strain and the government did precious little to fix it. We were in a period of pleasant downward drift in the July sun, so what the hell?

                                                  Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow triumph against India

After all, summer in Britain has its compensations. We had racing glamour at Ascot, we had the Indian cricket team touring (England won the test series), our rugby union teams were touring abroad (amazingly, on a famous 9 July, Scotland beat Argentina 29-6, Wales beat South Africa 13-12, Ireland beat New Zealand 23-12, and England beat Australia 25-17). We had lots of tennis, with Cam Norrie shining brightly at Wimbledon, until defeat by Djokovic, who went on to win against mercurial Kyrgios. Open Golf from St Andrews is underway and no doubt there will be other sporting goodies.

                                Pincher, Boris’ Nemesis, making a sad end to a live-wire’s ministry

Then an obscure Tory deputy chief whip, one Chris Pincher, decided in his cups to grope two other male members at the esteemed Carlton Club in St James’s. A scandal broke, Pincher resigned his position but stayed an MP. Boris made untrue statements about his prior knowledge of Pincher’s proclivities and was flatly contradicted by a former civil servant, permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, no less. Boris’ bluster depressed even his loyalists, and first Sajid Javid and then Rishi Sunak resigned. A flood of resignations soon followed and his administration seemed on the point of collapse. Boris bowed to the inevitable and resigned as Tory Leader on 7 July, remaining as Prime Minister until a new Leader is chosen.

(Personally, I have supported Boris since he embraced the Brexit cause in 2016. He was a vote-winner and unexpectedly empathised with all classes of elector. His drive and charisma won over many and he found a way through the tangled maze of Brexit and agreed relations with the EU. He probably mishandled Covid lockdowns, surrendering to NHS dogma, but the vaccination programme was a triumph. He relied on clever gurus like Dominic Cummings until they overreached themselves. His support for Ukraine has been exemplary. But his private life was a mess, he lied far too easily over the “PartyGate” scandal and he did not master his brief as well as more conscientious politicians. He will be much missed, but might easily re-appear!)                                                                                                                                                                                    

Now we are being treated to a full-fig Conservative leadership election. Once a matter settled in a smoke-filled room, it is now a consultation of all Party members. 358 sitting MPs vote on initial candidates whittling down the number to two by 21 July. The golden two then face the 180,000 party members, voting remotely, and a result is due on 5 September. The process kicked off with 11 candidates and as I write it is now down to 5 – Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat. There has been plenty wind exhaled and ill-will expressed with tactical manoeuvres galore, but little in the way of serious policy pronouncements. This weekend there will be 2 or 3 televised “hustings” giving the candidates a chance to display their wares under questioning. So far, we have only had rather stilted presentations by the candidates – Sunak slick and (maybe too) self-confident, Mordaunt rather banal, Truss uncharismatic, Tugendhat boring, and surprise package Kemi Badenoch smart and engaging. Yet it is fairly certain that Tugendhat and Badenoch will be eliminated in the next rounds leaving Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt.

Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt

Since writing the above, I have watched the first “hustings” and actually was impressed by all the Famous 5 candidates. Sunak was very fluent, although over-doing the guff about “our wonderful NHS” and opposed to significant tax-cuts until inflation was abated; Mordaunt spoke sense about the cost of living, and the need for unity, but seemed fuzzy on policy; Truss was a little flat but emphasized her experience, she would deliver and hit the ground running; Badenoch was good on the need to repair the system; Tugendhat was eloquent on the need for fresh thinking from new faces. Of course, many of their comments were self-serving (they all want the big job) yet the debate was civil and reassuring that there was some talent left in the cosmopolitan Conservative Party post-Boris!

I could live with any of the 3 main contenders as Prime Minister. Sunak is the most vigorous but he is an easy target for the envious Left with his hugely wealthy “Non-Dom” wife. Truss is solid, experienced but lacking real oomph. Mordaunt has many internal critics for her lack of mastery of detail, but she presses many of the right buttons for me. Quite how Tory these 3 are is a riddle – some could equally well grace Starmer’s front bench. We are promised a heatwave next week, but let’s keep the debating temperature down and may the best candidate win on 5 September!

 

SMD

16.07.22

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2022