BREXIT: THEY'RE OFF!

It is churlish not to give David Cameron full marks for trying, but he came back from his agonisingly tedious “renegotiation” with the EU with a sadly feeble “deal”. The conjuror did not pull a gleaming, attractive rabbit from his hat but rather a scrawny half-dead mouse, unable to quicken the blood of the doubters, instead a confirmation to the growing band of Leavers that the EU elite has no ability to modify its rigid mind-set or adapt to the modern world and the realities of an almost insurrectionary Europe. British political life anyhow will never be the same again.

Boris takes the wheels off Cameron's bike

The battle lines are becoming clearer. About half the Tory MPs, far more than expected, will campaign for Brexit including cabinet notables Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling, joined by charismatic but erratic Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, and many lesser ministers. Nigel Farage will try to reinvigorate his UKIP constituency and a small band of Labour members will advocate the Brexit cause. Those choosing to remain in are led by the Prime Minister, David Cameron, with his potent powers of patronage, his lieutenant George Osborne and half the Tory members. Once wobbling supporters Theresa May and Philip Hammond have been persuaded to tow the Cameron line. The Remainders are joined by most of Jeremy Corbyn’s chaotic Labour Party, by the much diminished Social Democratic group and by the vociferous SNP, still riding high in Scotland, but cordially despised elsewhere in the UK. There are many clever and many stupid people on both sides of this political divide. Let battle commence from now until 23 June 2016!

I hope the 120 days or so of the campaign will debate the broader issues and not get bogged down in the minutiae of Cameron’s “deal”. Whether or when EU immigrants get social security payments and child allowances is basically irrelevant. What matters is our legal Sovereignty, our economic health, our trade, our defence, our borders and the freedom and welfare of our people. The sniping has started – Cameron unwisely described sovereignty as “an illusion”, which it is within the EU but is a great prize outside; ask anyone from the US or even Iceland. William Hague of the Remainders worries about the position of Scotland; if Scotland votes to stay, can she stay within a UK which decides to leave? I do not accept that the SNP has any form of veto and will just have to accept the democratic decision. Scotland’s aspirations for independence have been made nonsensical anyway by the collapse of the North Sea oil industry. Expect plenty noises off from Nicola Sturgeon, but the SNP may be hard-pressed to maintain its dominance in Scotland. I thought Farage demonstrated his tin ear for public opinion by sharing a Brexit platform with George Galloway, the Leftist extremist, a sure-fire vote-loser. Boris can be an unguided missile too, if an amusing one, but I rely on cerebral Michael Gove to supply the required gravitas. Cameron and Osborne make a formidable team but may not enjoy sharing a forum with Labour and the SNP.

Boris the crowd-pleaser

Michael Gove, the deeper thinker

 

While there are great issues upon which reasonable people will have honestly held different views, I think it was the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg who admitted that in the final analysis the decision will be based upon “gut instinct”. The British are not xenophobic and can separate charming Europeans from those caught up in the European Project. Many feel the EU has overstepped the mark and it is a failing enterprise. It has been well said that Britain “does not want to be shackled to a corpse.” We are presented with a rare opportunity to recapture our birthright, run our nation in our own way and ally ourselves to real, tested friends.

SMD

22.02.16

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2016