THE BREXIT DILEMMA

David Cameron, our wannabe knight in shining armour, assured delegates at the Tory Party conference in  Manchester in October 2015 that he had "no sentimental attachment" to the European Union and was "only interested in two things: Britain's prosperity and Britain's influence." He committed himself to winning repatriation of legal powers, recognition of the multi-currency aspects of the EU, the end to “ever closer unity” for the UK, a curb on immigrants’ rights to welfare and a reduction in bureaucratic regulation. "That's why I'm going to fight hard in this renegotiation - so we can get a better deal and the best of both worlds." Well, he came, he saw and he was comprehensively conquered. The EU conceded nothing to the UK, apart from some footling adjustments on immigrant welfare, refused any treaty changes and avoided substantive discussion. Cameron has the usual politician’s brass neck to hail all this as a triumph and promises to campaign in favour of staying in the EU on these terms. Will the electorate be so easily hoodwinked?

David Cameron with Donald Tusk, President of the EU, February 2016

These terms, which Donald Tusk says may not even be deliverable by the fractious EU, are hopelessly deficient and an insult to the UK. There is no “deal” offered by the EU and the UK voters should simply vote “Leave” at the Referendum and find a new Prime Minister, with a modicum of spine, capable of managing a sensible exit from the fetid EU swamp.

We Brits are cautious and fair-minded people. David Cameron asks the voters to judge him on his merits. Brexit has its perils and we should weigh up the pros and cons as dispassionately as we can. I see the crucial issues as follows:

(1)    Sovereignty. Continued membership of a 28-member Union inevitably means a drip-drip erosion of our national sovereignty, overruling parliament and the UK courts, as policy decisions are increasingly taken by a majority of member nations or are dictated by the undemocratic Commission. Britain does not want to be absorbed by an ill-planned Union, values her own distinctive essence and is confident she can best protect her own interests.

(2)    Trade. After Germany, Britain is the second largest economy in Europe. She is happy to continue trading with her partners there and to grow that trade. She may well benefit from Europe’s weight in negotiations with other countries but I do not believe the EU would rationally seek to disrupt her trade. Their importance to us is mirrored in our importance to them. Sadly Europe is lagging behind in world growth terms and Britain would be free to negotiate her own trade pacts with the more dynamic economies in the Far East and in the Americas. Initially there is some risk that the UK will lose some inward investment. Over time, the UK can re-calibrate her economy back towards the Old Commonwealth and the US, the Anglophone Bloc.

(3)    Defence. Britain and France are the most significant military powers in Europe. They will continue to work in alliance with each other and with the much mightier US and with others under the NATO umbrella. This has worked well for 67 years. Other Europeans, Germany, Italy and Spain are reluctant to spend sufficient on defence and cherry-pick their involvements. The EU is a poor forum for military planning and leaving it would not weaken our shield one whit. A European Army is just a sick pipedream / nightmare.

Schaeuble and Merkel, the EU puppet-masters

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4)    Economics. The continental European and UK economies are very different. Germany, France and Italy still have significant industrial entities. The UK is much more service- and finance-orientated. Agriculture employs 1.5% of the working population in the UK compared with the EU average of 4.5% and much higher levels in Greece (12%), Poland (16%) and Romania (31%). EU statistics are suspect – no audit has been signed off in the last 20 years, so prevalent is corruption and embezzlement. Germany forces through economic policies to suit itself with much rigidity – one size fits all – and sharp deflation has devastated the economies of Mediterranean Europe. Britain by contrast has been relatively prosperous, though over-borrowed, pursuing her own policies. EU hatred of the successful City of London is visceral and numerous attempts have been made by Brussels to tax, regulate and undermine it, so far stoutly resisted. A weak UK government might squander this very precious national asset.

(5)    Political Culture The EU has historically been dominated by the French and Germans and that alliance endures though Germany is much the stronger. The political culture is authoritarian, elitist and dedicated to the long term political, economic and fiscal Union of Europe. The main functioning democratic institution is the European Parliament, a talking-shop rubber-stamping the actions of the Commission, only rarely enlivened by the biting tirades of derision from candid Nigel Farage. When electorates get the chance, especially in referenda, they defy the EU but recently, over the Lisbon Treaty for example, the EU contrives a re-run of the referendum to get the “right” answer! The frantic defence of the Euro, the harsh treatment of Greece and the feeble response to the migrant crisis have all diminished respect for the EU.

The leaders Angela Merkel and her eminence gris Wolfgang Schaeuble, Juncker, Tusk, Dijsselbloem are wildly overrated. Northern Europe is increasingly arrogant, Eastern Europe has thin libertarian roots, Greece and the Balkans are political sewers while Spain and Italy are side-lined into irrelevance. If you judge a nation by the company it keeps, the UK should sup with Europe with a very long spoon, maintaining friendly but distant commercial relations.   

The British referendum is months away, but the EU leopard will not change its spots. My youthful enthusiasm for Europe has died, betrayed by the lack of candour from Heath, Jenkins and successive British governments mesmerised by the Great European Idea. Reality impels me to recommend we vote “Leave” and regain control of our own destiny.

SMD
13.02.16
Text Copyright Sidney Donald 2016