Wednesday, October 19, 2022

A POLITE TORY BLOODBATH


It has been an extraordinary week or so in British politics. Liz Truss, the duly elected (by the Party only) Leader of the Conservative Party, and Prime Minister, thanks to the healthy majority bequeathed by deposed Boris Johnson, found that her “Fiscal Event” or mini-budget, was comprehensively rejected by the gilt-edged bond market, the Bank of England and everyone embraced by the expression “The City”. Ms. Truss sacked her loyal friend and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and appointed as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, a competent former senior minister, who had twice failed in attempts to become Tory Leader and whose star had otherwise apparently faded. Hunt had been given surprisingly wide powers by Truss and rapidly cancelled almost all the tax changes in the Truss mini-budget, calming the City, the gilt-edged market and the value of the pound as he focused on “financial stability”. We can at least give thanks for that efficient deliverance / ruthless hatchet job.



                 Jeremy Hunt - old face, new broom

A complete change of direction has been signalled. All ministers have been told of impending cuts and encouraged to volunteer their own proposals. Defence spending may be slowed down, the triple lock on pension increases may be abandoned, infrastructure projects may be delayed and even the sacrosanct NHS may see drastic economies. All this spells electoral unpopularity, however necessary the process is, and a period of deep retrenchment. All the exciting expansionary policies most Tories (me included) were looking forward to, have been consigned to the deep-freeze, if not the dustbin.

The future of Leader Liz Truss is a matter of the closest, hourly study. She has owned up to past mistakes (“I tried to do too much too quickly”) and her programme should have been more carefully prepared in the absence of an OBR review, but apologies do not butter many parsnips. She is not a warm media communicator and can often seem robotic. She has lost the confidence of her colleagues, many of whom want her to step down. But how can that be engineered and who would succeed her?



                           Liz Truss – a forlorn figure

Even if her defenestration can be organized, in itself an undemocratic manoeuvre, the field of candidates is hardly problem-free. The obvious runner is Jeremy Hunt but he does not want the job, nor does admired Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. Rishi Sunak has his supporters and is energetic but his immensely rich Indian background is far from helpful. Penny Mordaunt is probably too lightweight. The return of Boris Johnson is even mooted – You can’t be serious! So, it may be some time before Sir James Brady of the 1922 Committee hands Liz her red card. Meanwhile we may have to endure an uneasy regime of Hunt in charge and Truss a PM without real power, an unfair humiliation for Liz Truss but much preferable, from the Tory viewpoint, to a general election which would surely produce a massacre of the innocent (?) Tories without precedent.

Divine intervention is currently the Conservatives’ best hope!

 

SMD

18.10.22

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2022

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