Sidney's Place: JUST HANGING ON

Friday, October 7, 2022

JUST HANGING ON

Theresa May (remember her?) championed those who were “just coping”. Doughty Liz Truss, her Tory successor but one, appears to be “just hanging on”, an unenviable position for a newly elected Leader and Prime Minister of a government facing many difficult challenges, though normally able to rely on a united parliamentary party to support it. Sad for a Tory like me to relate, the Conservatives have instead fractured into several contrarian groups, each riding their own hobby-horse, not caring much about party solidarity nor the toxic effect they are having on the opinions of their electorate. Can the Tory spirit survive?

Liz Truss sets out her stall for her Tory government

Liz Truss won the convoluted leadership contest (7 July to 5 September and far too long) and one consequence was a group of disappointed candidates – Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt et al, egged on by mischief-making Michael Gove, became unhelpful critics of parts of her programme. Much damage was done by over-confident Kwasi Kwarteng (dubbed wittily as “Kamikwazi”), who had not adequately prepared the gilts market for his proposed tax cuts, nor involved the OBR. Sterling fell sharply and interest rates soared disproportionately. The Bank had to intervene and panicky, spineless Tory members feared for their seats as the polls projected disaster. A large slice of parliamentary confidence in Truss disappeared in this collective hysteria..

The fickle media were full of dire predictions, auguries and prophecies which would do credit to Cassandra or to our entrail-gazing primitive forebears. Most of these predictions will prove to be wildly over-stated, but that is no help presently. For example, the National Grid said a certain scenario of gas shortages could lead to daily blackouts in the winter. The Press presented this as an unavoidable fact not as a theoretical prediction. Although Truss is not (yet) a practiced orator, her actual conference speech was a lucid and rational résumé of Conservative principles.

On the lunatic fringes, some advocated yet another leadership contest, others an interim Leader appointed by MPs only, and the names of Ben Wallace and Kit Malthouse (who’s he?) were bandied about. The LibDems’ answer to all our problems is a fantasy involving rejoining the EU! It is said that in the 20^th and 21^st centuries few parties stay in office for more than about 14 years. Certainly, my Tories look rather tired and maybe need to recharge their batteries but even a brief spell of Keir Starmer’s shambolic Labour in office is the stuff of nightmares – God save us!

Things may not be quite as desperate as some fear. The promised recession has not come. The supply side measures yet to be announced may alter sentiment. Kwasi’s tax measures may well stimulate sustainable growth. Overseas, a rapprochement with the EU on the N I Protocol may be attainable. Putin may have to retreat from or even quit Ukraine. In time, Russian energy may become available again. Luck may even bring us two relatively mild winters in Europe.

· Perhaps Liz Truss has the courage of Marshal Foch; My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, excellent situation, I am attacking.

· Or maybe Kwazi Kwarteng can emulate Manchester City’s phenomenal Erling Haaland and score a financial hat-trick or three to transform our fortunes.