THERESA'S EASY PASSAGE

These days - after the game-changing Brexit referendum, the unexpected apotheosis of Donald Trump and the strong initial showing of Marine LePen – it is tempting fate to predict how voters will jump, but I firmly believe Theresa May will win the forthcoming UK election and win it easily with a Conservative majority well in excess of 100. She has chosen the moment well: a 5-year term will allow her to negotiate a sensible Brexit deal, compromise and make concessions if necessary, without constantly facing sniping and potentially fatal opposition from her more extreme Eurosceptic members: an election victory will establish her political authority as the choice of the electorate and not just of a Tory faction.

"No nonsense" Theresa May

At this juncture Theresa is respected but unloved. Prime Minister since 13 July 2016 her actual achievements in office are unimpressive. She deftly created a ministerial team with Brexiteers Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox in senior positions balanced by Remainers Philip Hammond at the Exchequer and Amber Rudd at the Home Office. Prominent Brexiteers Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith were consigned to the backbenches. Nine months later she has merely triggered Article 50 as promised by end-March and prepared for negotiations with an EU opposing team which one day is being conciliatory and the next is breathing fire and brimstone.

While it is said that the Tories are having a fit of Theresa-mania, Theresa herself doggedly concentrates on the job in hand: her manner is schoolmistress-like and disciplined, not charismatic nor inspirational, yet she speaks well enough and almost looks the part as an embryonic Margaret Thatcher, even down to the twin-set and pearls. Yet her Chancellor’s autumn statement was a shambles as he had to withdraw a key National Insurance tax rise after pressure from a faction of her backbenchers. This episode probably persuaded her to seek a surprise fresh mandate. The UK’s finances are overstretched and much work needs to be done to resolve NHS funding, rising social care costs, improve educational standards, stimulate the affordable housing market and enhance productivity. The Conservative election manifesto needs to be convincing and detailed – broad-brush platitudes will not be enough.

Yet Theresa could hardly have a more primrose-laden path to victory. The Opposition has ceased to exist. It beggars belief that Labour persists with the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, whose modest talents are those of a demo ranter and second-rate street agitator. Boris’ jibe that Corbyn is “a mutton-headed old mugwump” is well-aimed, though the electorate tires quickly of personal abuse. Corbyn is not much good at glad-handing or kissing babies either, he pulls faces, giggles at the wrong moments and does not think on his feet. Labour’s struggle to back Trident, its open hand for all causes irrespective of cost, be they NHS staff costs, free school meals, social security payments or old age pensions, condemns Labour to inanity and, like Michael Foot’s in 1983, will ensure that Labour’s manifesto will again be “the longest suicide note in history”.

Labour's candidate for the Premiership, Jeremy Corbyn

A dud Leader would be bad enough but Labour also is handicapped by an ineffective Front Bench. Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Diane Abbot, Keith Starmer, Emily Thornberry and Nia Griffith etc. are hardly names to quicken the pulses and surely cannot be taken seriously as senior government ministers, other than by an Islington clique. No doubt Labour will hang on in some of its heartlands but its appeal has seldom been weaker and a trouncing at the polls is inevitable.

Some say the election is a great opportunity for a LibDem revival. I do not see it – the tide is moving Right and LibDem enthusiasm for the EU, for free movement of people, for progressive causes whatever the cost strikes a discordant note. Personally I find Tim Farron a pipsqueak, though his Northern tones may play well elsewhere. I guess the LibDems will win 3 seats in England and 2 in Scotland in their traditional Celtic Fringe.

The SNP had their great year in 2015 holding or winning 56 seats. That performance cannot be improved upon and I think they will lose 8 seats to the Conservatives, dynamically led by Ruth Davidson, and 2 to the LibDems. With any luck the SNP will be given an early shove downhill from the 4 May local elections but unfortunately the SNP will remain politically dominant in Scotland for the next weary 5 years. My heart aches for my patient fellow-countrymen, endlessly berated by shrill Nicola Sturgeon and her deluded gang!

Intelligent electioneering is necessary but all the signs are that the Conservatives will form a strong government. The real challenge is whether the power they have will be put to good use.

The short-term priority is Brexit. As if we needed reminding, the currently serialised memoirs of Yanis Varoufakis, erstwhile Greek Finance Minister, tells us just how devious and mendacious the German-dominated EU apparatus is, and the UK will be bombarded with absurd demands and sucked into irrelevant debates. The UK has a much more powerful economy than Greece. Theresa’s government will need to have the courage to take the initiative in our own interest and cut the Gordian knot with a “hard Brexit” if necessary; the EU is best dealt with politely, from a distance and with a long spoon.

Longer-term Theresa needs to put flesh on her oft-repeated concern for those “barely managing” – our nation suffers from grotesque inequalities and poverties that are not simply materialistic.

Theresa, rise to this high challenge!

SMD

29.04.17

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2017

PLUMS

Little Jack Horner
Sat in the corner,
Eating a Christmas pie;
He put in his thumb,
And pulled out a plum,
And said 'What a good boy am I!'

This famous nursery rhyme celebrates the delectable plum even though historians analyse it endlessly and link it to one Thomas Horner, bribe-giving and bribe-taking henchman of Henry VIII much involved in Glastonbury Abbey at the Dissolution. But enough of academia, I am simply concentrating on Plums – squelchy and delicious, with their fragrant cousins, Greengages and Apricots, not to forget their blessedly laxative dried version of Prunes.

Irresistible Plums

Jack Horner pulled a plum from his Christmas pie, a little mysteriously, as my Christmas pies do not feature plums but apparently in Victorian times plums and raisins were commonly confused, and we had raisins a-plenty. Yet I am out of date and read recipes for Plum Duff, sounding very tasty, including sliced plums and apples.

Plum Duff a la mode

The other Plum I adore is P.G.”Plum” Wodehouse (1881-1975), the author of many dozens of       comic novels and short story collections, who reached his apogee in the 1930s. He also wrote many songs and cooperated with the likes of Jerome Kern in fashioning a clutch of American musicals. Plum created a magical and wholly imaginary world inhabited by brainless Bertie Wooster, denizen of The Drones Club, and his ingenious manservant Jeeves, by Lord Emsworth and a ferocious collection of aunts at Blandings Castle. His golf stories and the tales related by Mr Mulliner also reach an apex of hilarity which still, after many re-readings, make me laugh out loud.

P G "Plum" Wodehouse

I am conscious that quite a few people of my acquaintance do not “get” PGW and will dissent strongly from my chorus of praise for the writer. I stick by my belief that Wodehouse had an incomparable turn of phrase, highly original similes, ingenious madcap plots and purveyed sunshine all the way: I call him a genius.

On Good Friday I went to an excellent Brahms concert in Folkestone. His Concerto for violin and cello was performed and the young solo virtuosi were Savitri and Indira Grier. Savitri (1^st class honours in Music at Christ Church, Oxford) was looking fetchingly glam in a plum-coloured gown while her cellist sister played beautifully too. The main piece was Ein Deutsches Requiem, which I had never heard before, and it was a revelation, much more cheerful than Mozart’s or Verdi’s. The only odd note was that Luther’s Bible renders “At the last Trumpet” as “At the last Trombone” (Die Posaune), which sounds wrong!

Savitri Grier

Not all was high culture this Easter. I plumbed the depths with my umpteenth viewing of Carry On Up the Khyber with Kenneth Williams as the Khazi of Kalabar, Sid James, Joan Sims, Terry Scott and Peter Butterworth in riotous knock-about form. 

Talking about plumbing the depths, some nations lay claim to professional expertise. Thus Belgian dentists were the archetypical private Eurobond investors and now Polish plumbers are supposed to be masters of that dark art. Well, a leak in the flat above us is supposedly fixed on the 3^rd attempt – I can only concede that a Polish plumber is probably better than no plumber but do not take their reputed expertise at face value.

Finally I mused about plum jobs. I reckoned Christine Lagarde of the IMF was the most fortunate of executives – a tax free salary of $468,000 plus perks, plus being treated as a quasi-head of state. She was recently reprimanded but not punished for murky transactions in the Tapie-Credit Lyonnais scandal, while French Finance Minister, and she has allowed her institution to be dragged into the Eurozone’s bail-outs for Greece – not at all the IMF’s business – so I doubt if she will leave an admirable legacy on departing from this “nice little earner”.

Christine Lagarde

 

Donald Trump

At least Lagarde is smart. The winner of the Plum Job stakes must be our friend Donald Trump, inarticulate, volatile, maybe even unhinged US President. How he must love seeing himself as a Superhero from his dog-eared Marvel Comics, squashing Arabs, Mexicans and sinister Orientals. His current adversary is North Korea’s wonder-boy Kim Jong-un, quite mad too, so don your radiation suits!

SMD

17.04.17

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2017

A WORLD IN FLUX

I am not sure if I should ascribe my reactions to a native resistance to the unfamiliar, to the senile confusions of old age or simply to a lack of understanding of Realpolitik in the 21^st century, but I am totally bamboozled by the direction of travel of modern diplomacy and begin to believe that our experienced elites have quite simply gone potty.

The US took a huge gamble electing Trump; I fear that gamble is failing. The Donald is wholly lacking in Presidential qualities but worse, he has failed to assemble a credible team around him and his administration’s policies are incoherent or contradictory. Does he want détente with Russia or does he want to confront Russia? Does he disparage the EU or value European support? Does he believe NATO to be obsolete or is it a bulwark for peace? Will he isolate North Korea diplomatically and pressure China to intervene or will he lose patience and nuke Pyongyang? The answers to all these questions is “Yes”, depending from which side of the bed Trump has alighted – not a stable basis nor an intellectually defensible one for world peace!

Sergei Lavrov and Rex Tillerson disagreeing

Russia’s leadership is equally volatile. Can economically - challenged Russia really afford to engage in a “forward” foreign policy, provoking tough sanctions, with adventures in Syria, Crimea and Ukraine? Is it not in her best interests to have good relations with Central and Eastern Europe, building up trade, enhancing her credit- worthiness and reducing military expenditure? Putin is behaving like an extreme nationalist with a touch of Kim Jong-un’s megalomania. His Russia has scant prospect of unlocking her great potential by alienating the West.

Talking of “alienation” brings me to the EU. Never has a fall been so precipitous. Once an inspiration to progressive opinion, the EU is cack-handed and ill-led. The Mediterranean littoral is struggling but the terms of bail-outs are daunting. The Brits voted to leave after deal-seeking Cameron was spurned with contempt at the Brussels door. Right-wing nationalists ride high in France, Holland and Hungary; Italy is deeply disillusioned; Greece has been systematically impoverished. Germany and her near neighbours press on with their integration programme but there is scant enthusiasm and the prospect of 27-nation unanimity is zero. The EU is a failing, rudderless institution.

Britain ranged against Germany and France

Britain chose well to head for the exit but extrication from the EU will be a fraught experience. Brussels is in a nastily vengeful mood and France heads the group of nations seeking to punish Britain pour encourager les autres. Let’s hope the atmosphere improves, perhaps with an early mutual extension of all existing EU immigrants’ rights. Britain has its own problem with Nicola Sturgeon’s Scotland but with a bit of luck she will be weakened by the 4 May local elections – and, best of all, if Theresa May calls a general election later this year. Theresa needs a stronger personal mandate to push through a sensible Brexit. Elections clear the air and France, Germany (and Britain) may look quite different politically by the end of 2017.

Meanwhile Easter in all its solemnity is upon us. Jihadist ISIL may be militarily broken but there was a time “Christendom” would respond vigorously to the persecution of the faithful. Although many of these communities are vibrant, they exist in a sea of danger and incipient terrorism. It is to betray history to disregard the sufferings of Copts, Armenians, Eastern Orthodox, Syriacs, Jacobites and Maronites. Whatever one’s religious opinions, providing protection and a safe haven for them is a worthier cause than many others.

Copts mourn Palm Sunday 2017 bomb victims

 

SMD

13.04.17,