These days - after the game-changing Brexit referendum, the
unexpected apotheosis of Donald Trump and the strong initial showing of Marine
LePen – it is tempting fate to predict how voters will jump, but I firmly
believe Theresa May will win the forthcoming UK election and win it easily with
a Conservative majority well in excess of 100. She has chosen the moment well:
a 5-year term will allow her to negotiate a sensible Brexit deal, compromise
and make concessions if necessary, without constantly facing sniping and
potentially fatal opposition from her more extreme Eurosceptic members: an
election victory will establish her political authority as the choice of the
electorate and not just of a Tory faction.
 |
| "No nonsense" Theresa May |
At this juncture Theresa is respected but unloved. Prime
Minister since 13 July 2016 her actual achievements in office are unimpressive.
She deftly created a ministerial team with Brexiteers Boris Johnson, David Davis
and Liam Fox in senior positions balanced by Remainers Philip Hammond at the
Exchequer and Amber Rudd at the Home Office. Prominent Brexiteers Michael Gove
and Iain Duncan Smith were consigned to the backbenches. Nine months later she
has merely triggered Article 50 as promised by end-March and prepared for
negotiations with an EU opposing team which one day is being conciliatory and the
next is breathing fire and brimstone.
While it is said that the Tories are having a fit of
Theresa-mania, Theresa herself doggedly concentrates on the job in hand: her
manner is schoolmistress-like and disciplined, not charismatic nor
inspirational, yet she speaks well enough and almost looks the part as an
embryonic Margaret Thatcher, even down to the twin-set and pearls. Yet her
Chancellor’s autumn statement was a shambles as he had to withdraw a key
National Insurance tax rise after pressure from a faction of her backbenchers.
This episode probably persuaded her to seek a surprise fresh mandate. The UK’s
finances are overstretched and much work needs to be done to resolve NHS
funding, rising social care costs, improve educational standards, stimulate the
affordable housing market and enhance productivity. The Conservative election manifesto
needs to be convincing and detailed – broad-brush platitudes will not be
enough.
Yet Theresa could hardly have a more primrose-laden path to
victory. The Opposition has ceased to exist. It beggars belief that Labour
persists with the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, whose modest talents are those
of a demo ranter and second-rate street agitator. Boris’ jibe that Corbyn is “a
mutton-headed old mugwump” is well-aimed, though the electorate tires quickly
of personal abuse. Corbyn is not much good at glad-handing or kissing babies
either, he pulls faces, giggles at the wrong moments and does not think on his
feet. Labour’s struggle to back Trident, its open hand for all causes
irrespective of cost, be they NHS staff costs, free school meals, social
security payments or old age pensions, condemns Labour to inanity and, like
Michael Foot’s in 1983, will ensure that Labour’s manifesto will again be “the
longest suicide note in history”.
 |
| Labour's candidate for the Premiership, Jeremy Corbyn |
A dud Leader would be bad enough but Labour also is
handicapped by an ineffective Front Bench. Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Diane
Abbot, Keith Starmer, Emily Thornberry and Nia Griffith etc. are hardly names
to quicken the pulses and surely cannot be taken seriously as senior government
ministers, other than by an Islington clique. No doubt Labour will hang on in
some of its heartlands but its appeal has seldom been weaker and a trouncing at
the polls is inevitable.
Some say the election is a great opportunity for a LibDem
revival. I do not see it – the tide is moving Right and LibDem enthusiasm for
the EU, for free movement of people, for progressive causes whatever the cost
strikes a discordant note. Personally I find Tim Farron a pipsqueak, though his
Northern tones may play well elsewhere. I guess the LibDems will win 3 seats in
England and 2 in Scotland in their traditional Celtic Fringe.
The SNP had their great year in 2015 holding or winning 56
seats. That performance cannot be improved upon and I think they will lose 8
seats to the Conservatives, dynamically led by Ruth Davidson, and 2 to the
LibDems. With any luck the SNP will be given an early shove downhill from the 4
May local elections but unfortunately the SNP will remain politically dominant
in Scotland for the next weary 5 years. My heart aches for my patient
fellow-countrymen, endlessly berated by shrill Nicola Sturgeon and her deluded
gang!
Intelligent electioneering is necessary but all the signs
are that the Conservatives will form a strong government. The real challenge is
whether the power they have will be put to good use.
The short-term priority is Brexit. As if we needed
reminding, the currently serialised memoirs of Yanis Varoufakis, erstwhile
Greek Finance Minister, tells us just how devious and mendacious the
German-dominated EU apparatus is, and the UK will be bombarded with absurd
demands and sucked into irrelevant debates. The UK has a much more powerful
economy than Greece. Theresa’s government will need to have the courage to take
the initiative in our own interest and cut the Gordian knot with a “hard
Brexit” if necessary; the EU is best dealt with politely, from a distance and
with a long spoon.
Longer-term Theresa needs to put flesh on her oft-repeated
concern for those “barely managing” – our nation suffers from grotesque
inequalities and poverties that are not simply materialistic.
Theresa, rise to this high challenge!
SMD
29.04.17
Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2017
No comments:
Post a Comment