I am not sure if I should ascribe my reactions to a native
resistance to the unfamiliar, to the senile confusions of old age or simply to
a lack of understanding of Realpolitik
in the 21st century, but I am totally bamboozled by the direction of
travel of modern diplomacy and begin to believe that our experienced elites
have quite simply gone potty.
The US took a huge gamble electing Trump; I fear that gamble
is failing. The Donald is wholly lacking in Presidential qualities but worse,
he has failed to assemble a credible team around him and his administration’s
policies are incoherent or contradictory. Does he want détente with Russia or does he want to confront Russia? Does he
disparage the EU or value European support? Does he believe NATO to be obsolete
or is it a bulwark for peace? Will he isolate North Korea diplomatically and
pressure China to intervene or will he lose patience and nuke Pyongyang? The
answers to all these questions is “Yes”, depending from which side of the bed Trump
has alighted – not a stable basis nor an intellectually defensible one for
world peace!
 |
| Sergei Lavrov and Rex Tillerson disagreeing |
Russia’s leadership is equally volatile. Can economically -
challenged Russia really afford to engage in a “forward” foreign policy,
provoking tough sanctions, with adventures in Syria, Crimea and Ukraine? Is it
not in her best interests to have good relations with Central and Eastern
Europe, building up trade, enhancing her credit- worthiness and reducing
military expenditure? Putin is behaving like an extreme nationalist with a touch
of Kim Jong-un’s megalomania. His Russia has scant prospect of unlocking her
great potential by alienating the West.
Talking of “alienation” brings me to the EU. Never has a
fall been so precipitous. Once an inspiration to progressive opinion, the EU is
cack-handed and ill-led. The Mediterranean littoral is struggling but the terms
of bail-outs are daunting. The Brits voted to leave after deal-seeking Cameron
was spurned with contempt at the Brussels door. Right-wing nationalists ride
high in France, Holland and Hungary; Italy is deeply disillusioned; Greece has
been systematically impoverished. Germany and her near neighbours press on with
their integration programme but there is scant enthusiasm and the prospect of
27-nation unanimity is zero. The EU is a failing, rudderless institution.
 |
| Britain ranged against Germany and France |
Britain chose well to head for the exit but extrication from
the EU will be a fraught experience. Brussels is in a nastily vengeful mood and
France heads the group of nations seeking to punish Britain pour encourager les autres. Let’s hope
the atmosphere improves, perhaps with an early mutual extension of all existing
EU immigrants’ rights. Britain has its own problem with Nicola Sturgeon’s
Scotland but with a bit of luck she will be weakened by the 4 May local
elections – and, best of all, if Theresa May calls a general election later
this year. Theresa needs a stronger personal mandate to push through a sensible
Brexit. Elections clear the air and France, Germany (and Britain) may look
quite different politically by the end of 2017.
Meanwhile Easter in all its solemnity is upon us. Jihadist
ISIL may be militarily broken but there was a time “Christendom” would respond vigorously
to the persecution of the faithful. Although many of these communities are
vibrant, they exist in a sea of danger and incipient terrorism. It is to betray
history to disregard the sufferings of Copts, Armenians, Eastern Orthodox,
Syriacs, Jacobites and Maronites. Whatever one’s religious opinions, providing
protection and a safe haven for them is a worthier cause than many others.
 |
| Copts mourn Palm Sunday 2017 bomb victims |
SMD
13.04.17,
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