If Angela Merkel or Wolfgang Schauble still possess a tin
hat inherited from the war days (in their case the coal-scuttle model), I
strongly advise them to don it without delay. Whatever they threaten, whatever
imprecations they pronounce, whatever firewalls they have erected, Alexis
Tsipras and his Leftist Syriza will probably become the largest party in the
Greek elections on 17 June and will inform the Troika (EU/ECB and IMF) that Greece cannot
abide by the terms of the bail-out and cannot impose more austerity. Although Greece will say it wants to stay in the
Eurozone, Brussels
may insist that is not possible and the balloon will go up. Indeed it is not
clear that Greece
can survive in the Eurozone without subsidy even until 17 June, so Greek exit (“Grexit”)
might come any day. Armageddon is at hand!
 |
| The Greek Savonarola, Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza |
It could easily turn rather nasty. Many Greek opinion polls
show Syriza in the lead at 28-30%, though conservative New Democracy is
fighting back hard. New Democracy and PASOK, dubbed by Tsipras as “The
Taliban”, are trying to terrorise the electorate by luridly describing the
horrors of Greece
outside the Euro but they have a credibility problem. Syriza can probably find the allies to form a
majority government. Syriza’s policies do not themselves bear strict analysis –
even Danny “The Red” Cohn-Bendit, German radical veteran of les evenements in Paris of 1968, thought
they were unrealistic – but they have the overwhelming merit of not emanating from
the corrupt old parties, soon to be buried without trace.
At a Syriza victory
expect paroxysms of fury from Berlin and Brussels and from Mme Lagarde in Washington. If Greece defaults, expect rapid
shortages of fuel, energy and, soon enough, food, leading to the breakdown of
public services and civil order with no help from the glowering EU, at least
not immediately. Let’s hope the UK
sends a ship or two to evacuate us innocent Brits!
We should realise that Alexis Tsipras is not just a loony
left politician (which he is). He is a latter-day Savonarola stoking up a Bonfire
of the Vanities to consume the frivolities of the last 40 years of life of
the selfish Greek political and business elites – taxes unpaid, untrammelled corruption,
urban poverty ignored, bloated bureaucracy, useless welfare programmes, jobs
for the boys and grotesque parliamentary immunities, to name but a few. The
Greeks know they need a catharsis, a
cleansing, a jump away from the slimy past into a poorer but cleaner future.
Tsipras is their Messiah.
The defeated Greek parties face a horrid prospect. The stink
emanating from PASOK and New Democracy is already overpowering, made worse by
shocking daily revelations of the multi-millionaire life-style of former PASOK
defence minister Akis Tsahadsolopoulos, now known to have a large portfolio of
fancy properties in Berlin and Paris as well as in Athens.
Syriza will doubtless appoint a modern equivalent of the revolutionary
Committee of Public Safety. Embezzlers, cheats and hornswogglers (there are
plenty) will be brought to account, tax evaders (i.e. everybody) can expect
condign punishment and a formal system of anonymous denunciations, like the
French corbeau, will be established.
How the ordinary Greeks will savour their moments of revenge!
The fate of Greece
is ultimately a side-show; the big story is the fate of the Eurozone. If
exasperating Greece
could be expelled cleanly, the Eurozone would be thrilled. Over 75% of German
voters want Grexit and probably every Eurocrat in Brussels feels the same. Yet the dilemma is
stark: Is it less damaging and cheaper to carry on subsidising Greece and
others, even on softer terms, to protect the cherished Euro Project, or to sit
out a Greek bankruptcy? Already credit insurance for trading with Greece is being
cut, a run on the Greek banks cannot be far off and the coffers are empty, so
if the Germans have some rabbit to pull out of their hat, they had better tug
fast as time is running out.
 |
| Schauble and Merkel plot Teutonically |
Grexit hurts all banks, especially French ones. Spanish
contagion produces much larger problems throughout Europe.
Portugal and Ireland may totter, and if Italy is
derailed the euro is doomed. The internal contradictions of a currency zone with
no machinery for recycling surpluses to deficit areas, no lender of last resort
and fundamental policy disagreements amongst its members bedevil the whole
project. The EU has blindly refused to moderate austerity, even when
independent economists have argued that it cannot be the only measure and when
it clearly has become politically unsupportable.
Who would want to be a member of a club which bullies and
impoverishes its members? Eurozone countries are surely not ready for financial
rule from Berlin,
so it is back to the franc and the deutschmark. The Brussels gravy train will judder to a halt
leaving Barroso, Van Rompuy, Rehn, Juncker and Ashton to slink back to their
lairs and their vast retinues to find real jobs. A wide grin will appear on the
face of UKIP’s Nigel Farage and a reinvigorated Cameron (or Boris) will
negotiate a much looser association between the UK and the EU.
Three cheers for Alexis Tsipras, who will have shaken up the
world!
SMD
28.05.12
Text copyright Sidney Donald 2012
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