RISHI'S ROAD TO REDEMPTION

 

Whoever said that British politics were dull and boring is surely eating his words today after 6 months or so of lurid melodrama. Remember the decline and fall of “Neronian” Boris Johnson, when scandal followed scandal and heedless Boris uttered porkie after porkie pie until the supply ran out? Perhaps Nero is not an apt analogy, we might prefer Heliogabalus, a rather later Roman Emperor, (218-222), who passed his time among the rose petals, feasting with his glamorous ladies and neglecting his urgent duties, ignoring both the plague and the people (cf. Bojo).

                     The Roses of Heliogabalus (1888) by Lawrence Alma-Tadema

Anyhow Boris was deposed and then an excruciating Tory leadership election ruined our summer. There were at the start 11 candidates and they were whittled down at an agonizingly slow pace to two, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. Broadly speaking, Rishi was a favourite among the well-heeled and cautious but Liz was favoured by the poorer but more adventurous Tory Party members. They both toured the country, exhausting their audiences with their well-crafted, but naturally self-serving pitches. Liz won. She made a complete Horlicks of the job. Although her direction of travel was quite sound in the medium term, her Dash for Growth took place in the midst of an inflationary cost-of-living crisis and spooked the all-important gilts market, which had been inadequately buttered-up prior to launch. Rishi, an erstwhile Goldman Sachs and hedge-fund professional, had warned that disaster would derail her programme and, alas, he was right.

                   

Kwazi Kwarteng and Liz Truss got it all wrong

Events then moved quickly. Kwazi was fired and experienced Jeremy Hunt drafted in. Liz Truss was soon handed her red card and resigned and, to universal groans, another Tory leadership election was called. A high bar was set of 100 sponsoring MPs to get on the ballot. Quite inappropriately, given his record, Boris rushed back from a lavish holiday in the Dominican Republic, to throw his hat into the electoral ring to join Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. Mercifully Boris took the hint he was not wanted after a few days and dropped out and on 24 October underpowered Penny realized she could not muster her 100 sponsors and, at the very last minute, withdrew. Rishi was the last man standing and was rapturously crowned by hordes of sweaty flatterers as Leader of the Conservative Party.

Rishi was asked to form a government the next day by the King, with all due dignity and protocol, and spoke as Prime Minister in front of No. 10, vowing to rectify Liz’s mistakes and get the nation’s finances on an even keel

He spoke well, but he knows it is action not words, that will butter his parsnips and he had better get on the buttering job pronto. He is believed to be clever and energetic but the wider public does not know him well and needs to be convinced. His in-tray is overflowing with difficult decisions:

-          Are there significant economies possible in departmental budgets like Transport or overseas Aid?

-          Can hitherto sacrosanct Defence or NHS budgets be cut sharply?

-          Can the triple lock on pensions be dropped again and only rise with average earnings?

-          Is the welfare budget affordable?

-          Should a windfall tax on energy companies be imposed?

-          Can a deal be done with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol?

-          Should the net zero pledge be delayed to ease the energy crisis?

-          How far can we go in defending brave Ukraine?

Rishi will need top-notch advice on these matters and dozens of other less urgent ones. But the buck stops with him. There may be some cheery tune he can whistle, but perhaps he should try instead the solemn Victorian song The Lost Chord by Sir Arthur Sullivan!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBxsZKrUQU&ab_channel=BigTezza12

No, enough gloom! We are behind you, dishy Rishi!

                                            Rishi, your big chance is now

 

SMD

25.10.22

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2022

A POLITE TORY BLOODBATH

It has been an extraordinary week or so in British politics. Liz Truss, the duly elected (by the Party only) Leader of the Conservative Party, and Prime Minister, thanks to the healthy majority bequeathed by deposed Boris Johnson, found that her “Fiscal Event” or mini-budget, was comprehensively rejected by the gilt-edged bond market, the Bank of England and everyone embraced by the expression “The City”. Ms. Truss sacked her loyal friend and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and appointed as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, a competent former senior minister, who had twice failed in attempts to become Tory Leader and whose star had otherwise apparently faded. Hunt had been given surprisingly wide powers by Truss and rapidly cancelled almost all the tax changes in the Truss mini-budget, calming the City, the gilt-edged market and the value of the pound as he focused on “financial stability”. We can at least give thanks for that efficient deliverance / ruthless hatchet job.

                 Jeremy Hunt - old face, new broom

A complete change of direction has been signalled. All ministers have been told of impending cuts and encouraged to volunteer their own proposals. Defence spending may be slowed down, the triple lock on pension increases may be abandoned, infrastructure projects may be delayed and even the sacrosanct NHS may see drastic economies. All this spells electoral unpopularity, however necessary the process is, and a period of deep retrenchment. All the exciting expansionary policies most Tories (me included) were looking forward to, have been consigned to the deep-freeze, if not the dustbin.

The future of Leader Liz Truss is a matter of the closest, hourly study. She has owned up to past mistakes (“I tried to do too much too quickly”) and her programme should have been more carefully prepared in the absence of an OBR review, but apologies do not butter many parsnips. She is not a warm media communicator and can often seem robotic. She has lost the confidence of her colleagues, many of whom want her to step down. But how can that be engineered and who would succeed her?

                           Liz Truss – a forlorn figure

Even if her defenestration can be organized, in itself an undemocratic manoeuvre, the field of candidates is hardly problem-free. The obvious runner is Jeremy Hunt but he does not want the job, nor does admired Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. Rishi Sunak has his supporters and is energetic but his immensely rich Indian background is far from helpful. Penny Mordaunt is probably too lightweight. The return of Boris Johnson is even mooted – You can’t be serious! So, it may be some time before Sir James Brady of the 1922 Committee hands Liz her red card. Meanwhile we may have to endure an uneasy regime of Hunt in charge and Truss a PM without real power, an unfair humiliation for Liz Truss but much preferable, from the Tory viewpoint, to a general election which would surely produce a massacre of the innocent (?) Tories without precedent.

Divine intervention is currently the Conservatives’ best hope!

 

SMD

18.10.22

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2022

UNPOPULAR VIEWS

 

It is in the nature of my kind of journalistic commentary that many readers will disagree strongly with what I write. I would like to explore some of these issues, so that the controversy can be kept alive, if it deserves to be, before disappearing permanently below the horizon.

(1)    King Charles III’s Coronation.

I am delighted we now have a date (6 May 2023) for this special event but I am dismayed that the Palace plan to have a truncated version, and are not even sure if there should be a Bank Holiday to celebrate. I am old enough to remember Queen Elizabeth II’s 1953 coronation (wet, but wonderful) and of course it must be up-dated, but forget about “cut-price coronations” – we need a glorious and glittering occasion followed by lavishly memorable celebrations, from which we will require a Bank Holiday (or 2!) to recover.

I well understand that the public do not want an expensive display of privilege and we live in economically dicey times but a Spartan approach to the Coronation is entirely misplaced.

The ceremony itself could be drastically trimmed of some ancient formality without any great offence. I doubt if anointing Charles with holy oil is in keeping with the modern spirit, but he should be invested with the Crown, if not with all the other regalia. The now irrelevant peers can be banished entirely with their ermine and coronets, as can the judges in their silks and wigs and most of the lawn-sleeved, mitre-topped bishops. In the Abbey, the music of Handel, Purcell and Vaughan Williams should resound from the rafters competing with the Vivat Rex of the scholars of Westminster School and of the congregation. The congregation should represent the nation, all professions, and all condition of citizen. The King wants to be Defender of all the Faiths, so we must make room for Protestant sects, Catholics and Orthodox with a modest sprinkling of rabbis, imams and Hindu priests. The religious service is scheduled to take about an hour or so – plenty time. Receiving Homage from any quarter is redundant, as it is a given.

                                         The (uncomfortable) Golden State Coach

The public want to see their crowned King in his golden coach and a splendid procession to Buckingham Palace is a necessity. Ranks of servicemen, marching or mounted, military bands by the bucket-full, supplemented by a Pageant celebrating the past and present achievements of our great country, crowds cheering, bells ringing, canons booming, flags in profusion. Please spare us woke guff about the wonders of the NHS, immigrants and the transsexual community. Finally, a fly-past and a massive firework display will complete the official (tax-payer funded) ceremony.

 I would not expect the Exchequer to foot the bill for the subsequent feasting and conviviality but roast oxen, gallons of beer and the best Champagne would be on my menu. The people will be happy, London will rock, the tourist trade will be ecstatic and our friends and neighbours filled with admiration.

So, your Majesty, do not stint – make sure it is a truly memorable day!

(2)    André Rieu

I used to be sniffy about performers like André Rieu, who took pieces of popular classical music out of context and played them in a lush orchestral setting. But as usual, I was entirely wrong. There is a similar musical tradition in Britain, exemplified by the historic careers of Max Jaffa with his Palm Court Orchestra and Mantovani of “cascading strings” fame. Okay, they were never edgy or fashionable but they served up well-loved popular classics to a loyal and appreciative audience. André Rieu, the hero of Maastricht, in the Limburg province of the Netherlands is more ambitious and he is a ubiquitous presence on European TV.

                              André gets their feet tapping

André (now 73) has prospered mightily since his version of The Second Waltz by Shostakovich became a Dutch hit in 1994. His Johann Strauss Orchestra and singers have expanded in numbers and he gives lavish concerts globally and to audiences of 8,000 + in the town square of Maastricht (the Vrijthof) and its surrounding cafes. His concert stock in trade there is an entry to the strains of 76 Trombones, a selection of familiar Viennese waltzes, the stirring Limburg provincial anthem, operatic “lollipops”, as Beecham described them, often by Puccini, jokey business with the orchestra members, many guest performers displaying singing or instrumental talents and an extended finale with its rousing Adieu, meiner Kleiner Gardeoffizier ending the evening.

Multilingual André tours to, for example, Chile, Australia, Romania and Britain adjusting his programme to the native audience (he was recently in my home town of Aberdeen to the delight of my venerable brother aged 86, a great fan, who naturally attended). André is a flamboyant showman and I have to admit his polyglot entourage is a great advertisement for European unity and solidarity. He is one of the world’s life-enhancers and should be warmly cherished.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=681186609354946 You’ll never walk alone

 

(3)    Hilary Mantel

Hilary Mantel, the mistress of historical fiction, passed away only a few weeks ago at the age of 70. She produced a wide range of novels but her greatest claim to fame was the Wolf Hall Trilogy, three novels (the first two won the prestigious Booker Prize) following the rise and fall of Tudor statesman Thomas Cromwell. Cromwell was at least partly responsible for the Dissolution of the Monasteries, the execution of Anne Boleyn, the protection of Lollards, the suppression of the Pilgrimage of Grace and Henry VIII’s disastrous marriage to Anne of Cleves. He paid with his head in 1540

Thomas Cromwell

                                                    Hilary Mantel                                                               

Hilary well deserves the accolades heaped upon her and few would disagree with the Observer verdict: The Cromwell novels are, for my money, the greatest English novels of this century. Fascinating, meticulously researched, intelligently written to be sure, but Hilary, they were just too long!

Wolf Hall                                             482 pages

Bring up the Bodies                              650 pages

The Mirror and the Light                       875 pages

I am presently on page 205 of the 3^rd title and am not even a quarter nearer the finishing line! As a decrepit 80-year-old I do not read quickly any more. I want a handy book, not a door-stopper. I think there should be a heavy tax on books over 300 pages – maybe that would help us all, Liz Truss!

 

SMD

13.10.22

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2022

JUST HANGING ON

 

Theresa May (remember her?) championed those who were “just coping”. Doughty Liz Truss, her Tory successor but one, appears to be “just hanging on”, an unenviable position for a newly elected Leader and Prime Minister of a government facing many difficult challenges, though normally able to rely on a united parliamentary party to support it. Sad for a Tory like me to relate, the Conservatives have instead fractured into several contrarian groups, each riding their own hobby-horse, not caring much about party solidarity nor the toxic effect they are having on the opinions of their electorate. Can the Tory spirit survive?

                               Liz Truss sets out her stall for her Tory government

Liz Truss won the convoluted leadership contest (7 July to 5 September and far too long) and one consequence was a group of disappointed candidates – Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt et al, egged on by mischief-making Michael Gove, became unhelpful critics of parts of her programme. Much damage was done by over-confident Kwasi Kwarteng (dubbed wittily as “Kamikwazi”), who had not adequately prepared the gilts market for his proposed tax cuts, nor involved the OBR. Sterling fell sharply and interest rates soared disproportionately. The Bank had to intervene and panicky, spineless Tory members feared for their seats as the polls projected disaster. A large slice of parliamentary confidence in Truss disappeared in this collective hysteria..

The fickle media were full of dire predictions, auguries and prophecies which would do credit to Cassandra or to our entrail-gazing primitive forebears. Most of these predictions will prove to be wildly over-stated, but that is no help presently. For example, the National Grid said a certain scenario of gas shortages could lead to daily blackouts in the winter. The Press presented this as an unavoidable fact not as a theoretical prediction. Although Truss is not (yet) a practiced orator, her actual conference speech was a lucid and rational résumé of Conservative principles.

On the lunatic fringes, some advocated yet another leadership contest, others an interim Leader appointed by MPs only, and the names of Ben Wallace and Kit Malthouse (who’s he?) were bandied about. The LibDems’ answer to all our problems is a fantasy involving rejoining the EU! It is said that in the 20^th and 21^st centuries few parties stay in office for more than about 14 years. Certainly, my Tories look rather tired and maybe need to recharge their batteries but even a brief spell of Keir Starmer’s shambolic Labour in office is the stuff of nightmares – God save us!

 

Things may not be quite as desperate as some fear. The promised recession has not come. The supply side measures yet to be announced may alter sentiment. Kwasi’s tax measures may well stimulate sustainable growth. Overseas, a rapprochement with the EU on the N I Protocol may be attainable. Putin may have to retreat from or even quit Ukraine. In time, Russian energy may become available again. Luck may even bring us two relatively mild winters in Europe.

·         Perhaps Liz Truss has the courage of Marshal Foch; My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, excellent situation, I am attacking.

·         Or maybe Kwazi Kwarteng can emulate Manchester City’s phenomenal Erling Haaland and score a financial hat-trick or three to transform our fortunes.

  

                          

Foch
                 

                                        Haaland

Liz and Kwazi – your country needs you!

 

SMD
7.10.22

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2022