It has been an extraordinary week or so in
British politics. Liz Truss, the duly elected (by the Party only) Leader of the
Conservative Party, and Prime Minister, thanks to the healthy majority
bequeathed by deposed Boris Johnson, found that her “Fiscal Event” or
mini-budget, was comprehensively rejected by the gilt-edged bond market, the
Bank of England and everyone embraced by the expression “The City”. Ms. Truss
sacked her loyal friend and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and appointed as
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, a competent former senior minister, who had twice
failed in attempts to become Tory Leader and whose star had otherwise
apparently faded. Hunt had been given surprisingly wide powers by Truss and
rapidly cancelled almost all the tax changes in the Truss mini-budget, calming
the City, the gilt-edged market and the value of the pound as he focused on “financial
stability”. We can at least give thanks for that efficient deliverance / ruthless
hatchet job.
Jeremy Hunt - old face, new broom
A complete change of direction has been
signalled. All ministers have been told of impending cuts and encouraged to
volunteer their own proposals. Defence spending may be slowed down, the triple
lock on pension increases may be abandoned, infrastructure projects may be
delayed and even the sacrosanct NHS may see drastic economies. All this spells
electoral unpopularity, however necessary the process is, and a period of deep
retrenchment. All the exciting expansionary policies most Tories (me included)
were looking forward to, have been consigned to the deep-freeze, if not the
dustbin.
The future of Leader Liz Truss is a matter of
the closest, hourly study. She has owned up to past mistakes (“I tried to do
too much too quickly”) and her programme should have been more carefully
prepared in the absence of an OBR review, but apologies do not butter many
parsnips. She is not a warm media communicator and can often seem robotic. She
has lost the confidence of her colleagues, many of whom want her to step down.
But how can that be engineered and who would succeed her?
Liz Truss – a forlorn
figure
Even if her defenestration can be organized, in
itself an undemocratic manoeuvre, the field of candidates is hardly
problem-free. The obvious runner is Jeremy Hunt but he does not want the job,
nor does admired Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. Rishi Sunak has his supporters
and is energetic but his immensely rich Indian background is far from helpful. Penny
Mordaunt is probably too lightweight. The return of Boris Johnson is even
mooted – You can’t be serious! So, it may be some time before Sir James
Brady of the 1922 Committee hands Liz her red card. Meanwhile we may have to
endure an uneasy regime of Hunt in charge and Truss a PM without real power, an
unfair humiliation for Liz Truss but much preferable, from the Tory viewpoint,
to a general election which would surely produce a massacre of the innocent (?)
Tories without precedent.
Divine intervention is currently the
Conservatives’ best hope!
SMD
18.10.22
Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2022
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