UKIP CREATES PANIC

By-elections are rather unreliable indicators of opinion as they are often the repository of protest votes and flash-in-the-pan wonders. Yet I see the results at Clacton and at Heywood as truly significant, ushering in a seismic move Right in British politics. The three main parties, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Labour, have been soundly thrashed; their cosy cartel has wearied and betrayed the electorate, whose views are ignored and whose interests are trampled upon. Comfortable in their Westminster Village cocoon, government and MPs no longer reacted – they have no experience of ordinary people nor ordinary life. Reality now intrudes, radical realignments have become urgent as the Crack of Doom mightily resounds for old-style politics.

Farage and Carswell celebrate Clacton triumph

Miliband forces a feeble smile after Heywood

The UKIP story has strayed greatly from the script expected by the 3 parties. To be sure, with Eurosceptic sentiment spreading rapidly, they expected UKIP to prosper in the European elections, which they duly did, moving from 11 to 24 members. But who cares about the antics of MEPs? What the three parties had forgotten were the by-elections, not just the usual ones brought on by expiring members (some from a surfeit of tax-payer funded rich food and cheap booze in the subterranean Commons dining rooms) but also those forced on the Government by the defection of members to UKIP. Douglas Carswell in Clacton falls into this category as does Mark Reckless in Rochester. Who else will come out of the woodwork – Labour’s Austin Mitchell in Grimsby and maybe a dozen others, with every by-election a government humiliation? Such a scenario will be very damaging to David Cameron’ Tories and galvanise his already substantial anti-EU wing. The great test will be whether Reckless can hold his seat for UKIP in Rochester – probably on 6 November – a triumph for Reckless in Rochester or Witless in Witney (Cameron’s constituency)!

David Cameron needs to get his skates on or he will lose the 2015 election for the Conservatives. He has promised a referendum in 2017 (if he retains office) after he has negotiated better arrangements with Brussels. The electorate will not wait that long and is keyed up to make an In/Out decision soon. Cameron should try to negotiate a quick deal now – if a reasonable one, he can campaign in its support, if he is rebuffed he can campaign for exit – UKIP will support him as long as a referendum comes quickly. 

Nobody knows how well UKIP will poll in a May 2015 general election. The first-past-the post system works against UKIP but clearly they can potentially mobilise millions of voters. UKIP was written off as a one-issue (E.U. exit) party last year. Well, that issue has gained in strength and at least two other issues (Immigration control and English devolution) are under intense public debate from UKIP and others. After the shameful inaction of the main parties, immigration control looms large with white blue-collar workers worried about their jobs. English devolution (English laws decided by English members only) has been rocketed into prominence by the divisive Scottish independence referendum campaign with the Scots demanding powers unbalancing the (unwritten) constitution. Despite Gordon Brown’s hysteria, a fair resolution of the so-called West Lothian Question is not beyond the wit of man, even if Labour’s Scottish following loses out on voting upon English legislation in Westminster. It is really a matter of simple equity.

UKIP’s weakness is its over-reliance on Nigel Farage as Leader. Farage has been terrific, out-debating Clegg, speaking with clarity and wit and projecting a genial persona, although he in fact is a seasoned and tough cookie. But he lacks deputies or spokesmen of quality although talent may well defect to him. His party is ramshackle and undisciplined but that is true of many young parties and Farage’s own eventual appearance at Westminster as MP for Thanet South will be a moment to savour.

Nigel Farage - political hero of 2014

The received wisdom, as peddled by Cameron, is that a vote for UKIP in effect is a vote for Labour, as it splits the anti-Labour vote. This might still be true in a sense but the victims are the Tories alone as UKIP will be quite happy with say 10 seats, a parliamentary beginning of sorts, and the Tories may lose power altogether. Far wiser for Cameron is to reach an understanding/electoral pact with UKIP and avoid blood-letting, not contesting /conceding a few seats to UKIP in return for UKIP not contesting other Tory targets. Liberal Herbert Gladstone reached just such a secret agreement with Labour in 1905 on the eve of the greatest Liberal election triumph ever in 1906.

Labour may still win in 2015 and the pollsters say that if Labour holds on to its core 35% of the electorate it will indeed win. However all the signs are that Labour is leaking votes. This was most apparent in the Scottish referendum where voters in the Labour heartlands of Glasgow and Dundee ignored the party line and supported independence. Labour held on to its 40% of the vote in Heywood (one of its safest seats) but as the margin of victory there was only 617 votes, thousands of erstwhile Labour voters must have joined the former Tories and Lib-Dems and put their crosses against UKIP. Ed Miliband is a gawky and eccentric leader (his recent conference speech was disastrous) with scant public appeal. Pressure on him from William Hague’s committee to come to a cross-party agreement on the English devolution controversy can tie him into awkward knots.

Greatly daring, I will predict the outcome of the 2015 general election. I see modest UKIP gains from all main parties and the Tories winning seats from a sharply declining Lib-Dem group, while the SNP makes inroads into Labour’s Scottish core. The 2010 result in terms of seats was:

Conservatives                   307

Lib-Dems                           57

UKIP                                    0

Labour                              258

SNP                                      6

                Others                             22 

                Total                              650

My guess for 7 May 2015 is:

                Conservatives                315

                Lib-Dem                          20

                UKIP                               10

                Labour                           265

                SNP                                 22

                Others                              18

                Total                               650

I see the Tories running a minority government without any formal coalition, depending on the occasional support of UKIP, the Lib-Dems and 9 Democratic Unionists from Ulster. A period of tricky consensus building and negotiation looms!

SMD

14.10.14

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2014