GEORGE W. BUSH: Post-War American Presidents (11)

[This is 11^th in a series describing the 12 Post-War American Presidents from a British perspective]

George W Bush left the Presidency with historically low approval ratings. His domestic policies were moderate but he had been forced to react to the appalling Islamist terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 9/11/2001 which so shocked the American people. Bush went to war against Afghanistan, a terrorist hotbed, then, with much less justification legally, he invaded Iraq and overthrew the tyrannical government of Saddam Hussein; the aftermath has been bloody and confusing. On his watch too, the Western banking system almost collapsed in 2008 requiring a vast taxpayer-funded bailout. These were horrendous problems and history may say that Bush (Iraq apart) made the best of an unenviable job leading the US through this mess.

George W. Bush

George W Bush (1946 - ) was born in New Haven, Connecticut and was raised in Midland and Houston, Texas, where his father was in the oil business. The Bush family was highly political and his father George W. H. Bush held senior Republican office before serving as Vice-President to Ronald Reagan and a one-term President 1989-93. George W was the eldest of 5 children – 4 brothers and 1 sister, one brother Jeb becoming Governor of Florida.

George W finished high school at top-drawer Phillips Academy at Andover, Mass, then read history at Yale 1964-68. In 1968, no doubt to avoid the Vietnam draft, he served in the Texas Air National Guard and later the Alabama equivalent until 1974.

Bush in the Air National Guard

George had not been a particularly distinguished student though he earned an MBA at Harvard Business School 1973-75. He entered the oil business with mixed success. He had a reputation as a tearaway and his heavy drinking was anything but responsibly Presidential. No doubt in a typical incident, in 1976 George had a drinking contest with the famous Australian tennis player John Newcombe at the Bush compound at Kennebunkport, Maine, and was subsequently fined $150 for drunk driving. The early career of George W was thus none too promising. 

Then George took a grip on his life. In 1977 he met at a barbecue party, and married 3 months later, Laura Welch, a seriously minded teacher and Methodist. She was a moderating influence and gradually he became some kind of born-again Christian, encouraged by evangelist Billy Graham: eventually on the day after his 40^th birthday in 1986 he renounced alcohol and has been teetotal ever since. 

A younger George W with Laura Bush

The reformed George W turned to his real family business, politics. He ran unsuccessfully for the House in 1978 but with a Vice-Presidential father he was always favoured. His oil industry career was marred by the failure of an exploration company but he hit the jackpot in 1989 by co-owning and managing for 5 years the Texas Rangers baseball team. His investment cost $800k and he sold out in 1998 for $15m, a substantial coup, making him independently wealthy.

He helped his father in his successful presidential campaign in 1988 but, emulating his brother Jeb in Florida, he turned his thoughts to the Governorship of Texas. He secured the Republican nomination and then won against popular Democrat Ann Richards in 1994, starting a 4-year first term. He soon introduced a large tax cut, stimulating the state economy, and instituted various educational reforms. George W’s campaign had been masterminded by Karl Rove, who subsequently became a controversial and influential eminence grise, guiding George down the ideological hard-Republican road of small government, states’ rights and widely interpreted personal liberty. In 1998 George easily won a second term; his ownership of the Texas Rangers made him a popular figure and his upbeat speechifying, often with religious overtones, played well in Texas. 

Strategist Karl Rove

Seasoned Dick Cheney

Rove was on hand when George decided to run for President in 2000 when Bill Clinton’s second term ended. George was up against Al Gore for the Democrats. Gore was admired in liberal circles for spouting all their nostrums, espousing green policies and racial equality but he was rather wooden and uninspiring. But George W himself was no orator. He could read a set speech convincingly enough but, most unusually in the eye of a Brit, he was not the usual (over-)articulate American politician conjuring up the sonorous phrase or smart riposte. He easily stumbled or became tongue-tied. Yet he was genially handsome and folksy. Bush chose Washington veteran Dick Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate, a forceful neo-conservative and later a powerful colleague.

The election was as close as could be with Gore winning a majority of the popular vote (48.4% to 47.9%) but Bush winning the crucial majority (271 to 266) in the Electoral College. The result was in doubt for some weeks as votes in Florida had to be recounted (“hanging chads” on voting machine ballot papers finally favouring Bush). The legitimacy of Bush’s Presidency was ever questioned in partisan circles, though the Supreme Court clearly endorsed it.

George W, with Laura, takes the inaugural oath

The first term started off in a business-like fashion with the useful No Child Left Behind Act aimed at subsidising tuition to underperforming schoolchildren. In conservative mode, Bush proposed that same-sex marriages be declared unconstitutional, an initiative that failed. A Budget proposing very substantial tax cuts in 2002 was prepared. These domestic concerns were completely overshadowed on 11 September 2001, when almost 3,000 American and international victims died in suicide attacks using 4 hi-jacked airliners; 2 flew into the twin-towered World Trade Centre in New York and one hit the Pentagon.  The 4^th airliner crashed when the passengers attacked the hi-jackers allowing the Capitol in Washington to escape. The 19 perpetrators were Saudi members of Islamic terror group al-Qaeda, The twin towers collapsed but the Pentagon was quickly repaired. These appalling events traumatised and infuriated Americans who rallied round their President.

Bush is told of the 9/11 attacks

The 9/11 attacks had been planned by Saudi Osama bin Laden who lived in Afghanistan under the protection of the local Islamist Taliban. With UN approval Bush put together a coalition of nations to overthrow the Taliban. Various war-lords were co-opted into the struggle and ground forces sent. The Taliban was deposed in 2002 and Mohammed Karzai became the new head of government. Bin Laden escaped to live safe years under Pakistani protection. But Afghan society was anarchic and corrupt, the writ of the government barely ran beyond Kabul and the Taliban regrouped to mount a persistent insurrection, still unsubdued. The war was expensive in treasure and there were no easy victories. US casualties were 2,234 and UK’s 453 – the public soon yearned for withdrawal and the future of Afghanistan remains dubious.

Much more controversial was the War against Terror – the Axis of Evil being described as Iraq, Iran and North Korea. A doctrine, later known as the Bush Doctrine, was promulgated by the Republican neo-cons, notably Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Bolton, whereby the US was justified in launching a pre-emptive war against rogue states harbouring Weapons of Mass Destruction. Bush put pressure on the fetid Sunni dictatorship of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and then launched a war in 2003 for his overthrow without UN approval. 

Allies Tony Blair and George Bush

Bush found an enthusiastic ally in articulate and persuasive Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister, who committed UK forces to the war. Blair carried the UK Parliament with him but there were dissenting voices notably that of ex-foreign secretary Robin Cook – the mendacious “dodgy dossier” purporting to show intelligence on Saddam’s arsenal was heavily doctored. In truth, Saddam was a squalid tyrant whose removal was highly desirable, but Iraq was not a credible threat to the US or the UK and in time no weapons of mass destruction were found. While the war overthrew Saddam, (Bush foolishly boasting “Mission accomplished”) the resulting power vacuum was filled by weak government and sectarian terrorist groups, causing blood-soaked chaos. Bush and his advisers planned the war badly, not understanding the murderous Sunni-Shia-Kurdish tensions unleashed and making a serious error in disbanding Saddam’s army and leaving nothing to support the civil authorities. The US and UK have now finally left still divided Iraq. The expedition there deeply dented Bush’s reputation and destroyed that of Tony Blair.

Amid all these troubles, Bush ploughed on with his domestic programme. An immediate response to 9/11 was the Patriot Act, drastically extending the surveillance rights of the US government. Extra Medicare help was given to older citizens, educational improvements were made but Bush’s plans partially to privatise the social security system did not gain support and were dropped. His tax cuts probably contributed to the large deficit being run as the economy grew only modestly up to 2007.

Bush won the close fought 2004 Presidential election against John Kerry with 51.7% of the popular vote against Kerry’s 48.3% and 286 votes to 251 in the Electoral College. But the political tide was running against Bush; Congress became Democrat dominated in the 2006 mid-terms.

Bush also got blamed, not wholly fairly, for the slow Federal response to the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina which devastated Louisiana and particularly New Orleans in 2007. He should have been more pro-active when his officials underperformed.

Bush comforts Katrina victims

A much larger crisis came to haunt the luckless Bush in his last year. There was much instability in the sub-prime mortgage market from 2007 as recessionary pressures multiplied. House prices sharply declined and bank loans were going bad. Alan Greenspan of the Federal Reserve had regulated too lightly; the banks were grotesquely over-exposed; many Wall Street financial instruments were of doubtful value: the banking community had been reckless and greedy. Despite the efforts of Hank Paulson at the Treasury and Ben Bernanke at the Fed, leading investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and a procession of famous names failed, had to be bailed out or sold at low prices at considerable taxpayer expense. Business morale was shattered in the US and Europe and Bush carried the can. Recovery eventually came, much too late to help Bush.

Bush thus left under a considerable cloud. His presidency had not been distinguished but none of his predecessors have had to face the 9/11 attacks, the Iraq war and the 2008 financial meltdown. He quietly retired to his Texas ranch, dutifully appears at formal occasions and can only hope that the verdict of history will be kinder and not wholly negative.

SMD.

3.12.14.

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2014