BREXIT FOR EVER!

With 10 days to go before Referendum Day, the great British public has had its fill of dodgy dossiers, contentious statistics and arid debate. The political temperature has gone up with allegations about the hordes of migrants waiting to sail our way and insults about the ulterior motives of Leaver politicians. My own pro-Brexit opinions are no secret, but I promise this is my final word on this vital matter until we know the result on 24 June and we adapt to a new political landscape!

I have long believed that Britain does not fit into the European Union: our institutional foundations, our global connections and our national mentality are very different from those of Continental Europe. I would put up with much of that if the EU were, as it once was, an economically dynamic entity, but it was become a sclerotic laggard. We needed a new relationship if we were to stay in and I was prepared to give Cameron a chance when he embarked on his “re-negotiation”. The EU treated Britain via Cameron with contempt. No substantive concessions were offered and what was offered had no force of law and could readily be revoked. The EU refused to make any treaty changes as that would involve obtaining the consent of a slew of national parliaments, a prospect from which undemocratic Brussels bottled out. So Cameron achieved nothing and public opinion hardened against the EU.

Besieged David Cameron

Charmless George Osborne

 

Astonishingly, Cameron set an early date for the promised Referendum and campaigned for Stay despite his obvious negotiation failure. His party was split and although half the party (especially those in office) supported him, the other half capitalised on Eurosceptic sentiment and joined the Leave camp. Cerebral Michael Gove, a close colleague of Cameron, and Boris Johnson, the vigorous ex-Mayor of London, emerged as leaders. Nigel Farage leader of UKIP was an ally but his anti-immigrant rhetoric was thought over-done. Labour, led by eccentrically confused Jeremy Corbyn, mainly backed Stay but was loth to share a platform with Cameron. The SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens etc wanted to Remain.

The campaign has been both unedifying and unconvincing. The Remain camp has embarked on what quite properly could be called Project Fear, fronted by George Osborne, – an avalanche of dire warnings about disasters facing Security, Defence, Industry, Sterling, Trade, the NHS, Education and yesterday even Pensions (and bus-passes!) if we voted Leave. There may be a sliver of truth in some of this, but it has essentially back-fired by its gross exaggeration. No doubt there will be many Brexit challenges but the electorate’s intelligence is insulted by the Remain approach and the unremitting gloom and doom purveyed cannot have inspired their followers but rather added to the fear that Britain is already trapped in a bureaucratic quagmire. Hardly one positive word has been said (significantly) by the Remain side about the EU, its organisation and its future prospects.

Rational Michael Gove

Charismatic Boris Johnson

The Leave side has pooh-poohed Project Fear and expatiated upon the joys of Independence. There has been much wrangling over the size of the Brexit dividend, £10bn says the Leavers, but authoritative verification is elusive. Events this year have given force to the perils of EU immigration, a subject once thought too delicate to air. The Leavers’ insistence on national Control seems very reasonable to me – but is not on offer from Brussels.  The Leavers have often struck rational chords; Michael Gove put it well: Surely it is better to be a friendly neighbour living in his own house than a discontented lodger living in a house he did not build. Boris Johnson has also performed well, curbing his love of a good joke and keeping his temper when sorely provoked.

Remain's 3 Witches

I watched Boris, politeness itself, ably supported by Gisela Stuart for Labour and Tory Andrea Leadsom debate the issues with very hostile Remainers Amber Rudd, Angela Eagle and Nicola Sturgeon. I thought Amber Rudd displayed her arrogance and her insults to Boris were surely counter-productive. Angela Eagle whined on about the wisdom of the trades unions, the most reactionary group in society, while Nicola Sturgeon demeaned her cause by her cocksure coarseness and irrelevant cracks about Scottish independence. A clear victory for the Leavers.

David Cameron has normally given a good professional account of himself but I do wonder if in his innermost being he really believes in the Remain case. His passion sometimes sounds synthetic. He miscalculated wheeling out Obama to threaten us with his “You will be at the back of the queue” jibe and I would not want to be in the same room, let alone share a platform, with sinister German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, grim oppressor of Greece and Mediterranean Europe.

Schaeuble - German Empire-builder

Juncker - Brussels blunderer

 

The Guards mounted band at our joyful Trooping the Colour last Saturday

The referendum vote will be close – I was much heartened by the poll giving the Leavers a 10% lead. I do not disparage the EU and I wish their United States of Europe project every success. I want an outward-looking Britain, valuing tolerance, trading globally and at ease with herself. I want to defend, after brushing away any cobwebs, her traditions and historic relationships. In short I want us to turn over a new and hopeful page.

My gut-instinct is that we will win on 23 June and I will be stocking up with the bubbly!

SMD

13.06,16

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2016