Sunday, July 17, 2016

POST-BREXIT PANORAMA


I hardly know where to start. A totally astonishing three weeks of UK politics has just passed – the historic Brexit referendum vote, the resignation of David Cameron, a sharp Tory leadership contest with Michael Gove turning against Boris Johnson, the elimination of Gove, the brief elevation of Andrea Leadsom, her withdrawal, ending with the crowning apotheosis of Theresa May. Theresa is now in charge and her cabinet (with Boris as Foreign Secretary) suggests we are in for a refreshingly radical administration. All this happens in a period including the terror attack in Nice, an abortive military coup in Turkey and tragi-comic leadership convulsions in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.


New Prime Minister Theresa May
                      
Theresa is the final victor but first a word about the vanquished. David Cameron has gone and the dignified manner of his departure did him much credit. Well-liked, articulate and immaculate, Cameron fatally misjudged the Brexit Referendum, not at all helped by an unbending and hostile European Union. Cameron lived within the Westminster bubble, well-off, metropolitan, maybe never wholly convincing, largely unaware of the frustrations of so many of his compatriots. He is a decent man nonetheless who will be missed by many.

A sad end for decent David Cameron
                                        
The Brexiteers, of which I was one, savoured their victory but failed to secure the top job, neither Boris, Gove nor Leadsom measuring up. Most Tory Remainers accepted defeat on this great issue with resigned grace but the Remainers of the Centre-Left went into paroxysms of apoplectic fury, launching hopeless campaigns for Grand Petitions, Supreme Court Challenges and Parliamentary Shenanigans, all certain to fail. This clique simply could not accept the democratic verdict of the people and their sense of entitlement, their belief that the Peasants must not be allowed to prevail over their will was supported by organs like the BBC and The Guardian. They have made swallowing the Brexit pill unnecessarily bitter for themselves.


The “Cameroons”, or at least the Notting Hill set, fared badly when Theresa May came to select her cabinet. No place was found for heavy hitters George Osborne and Michael Gove, and lesser lights Nicky Morgan, Oliver Letwin, Steven Crabb, Theresa Villiers and John Whittingdale were consigned to outer darkness. Osborne has talent but he needed to move from the Exchequer after 6 years; he had eyed the Foreign office but he was thwarted by Boris on whom Theresa took a punt. Boris is indiscreet and not good at detail but he has real wit, charm and charisma: he is clever and well-travelled: I think he could work out very well. I am a fan of cerebral arch-Brexiteer Michael Gove but his knifing of Boris, however justified, was unattractive and undermined trust in him. Theresa may too have wanted to extract her revenge for reputedly abrasive turf wars between her Home Office and the Department of Justice under Gove. I hope Gove soon enough returns to office.

George Osborne and Michael Gove, victims of the Theresa May Purge
      
The field now belongs to Theresa May, Home Secretary for 6 years and a largely silent Remainer. She remains an enigma to me; she is said to be determined and effective but the sharp rise in net immigration happened on her watch. She did negotiate deals to extradite two notorious Islamic extremist preachers but our obstructive judiciary is largely to blame for this problem. In her 6 years she did well to survive in the notorious political graveyard of the Home Office but she has few positive measures to her credit compared to say, Rab Butler or Roy Jenkins. Theresa does have experience and knows the modish ways of her predecessor. Apparently she asked about “all the green crap” and duly abolished the Department of Climate Change – well played!


She entered Downing Street delivering a resounding speech about the importance of the Union and “the time of great national change we face” after Brexit. She talked of the injustices suffered by the poor, by blacks, by white working-class boys, by those educated by the state, by women, by mental health patients and by the young. Life was much harder for these groups than MPs realised and she pledged to improve their lives and the lives of all who are “just managing”. These were the words of a Tory radical and I hope they are not just rhetorical hot air. If she means what she says, I cry Hurrah!


Her government will be dominated by the Brexit negotiation and I like her team of David Davis and Liam Fox, solid citizens both, supplemented by Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson. There is a huge job to be done and we will see how her administration copes. No doubt Theresa will cast a beady eye over any backsliders.


With the departure of Cameron (Politics, Philosophy and Economics, Brasenose) I was worried that the modern Oxonian intellectual edge of the government might be blunted. There is no need to worry as we have Philip Hammond (PPE, University College), Liz Truss (PPE, Merton) and Jeremy Hunt (PPE, Magdalen). They will surely enlighten and leaven the Tory lump, says I, (PPE, St Edmund Hall)!



SMD
17.07.16

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2016

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