Well, nobody said it would be easy and the last week
or so has highlighted some of the many obstacles strewn either entirely naturally
or with malign intent on the road to Brexit. Yet the historic referendum
decision will never be overturned and the new government will strain every
sinew to reconcile the domestic malcontents, forge a unity to face the complex
negotiations to leave the EU and take full advantage of the opportunities soon
to open up to an unshackled Britain. Our people will have to become even
stauncher and grow thicker skins for the next two years!
 |
| No nonsense Theresa May |
Britain has a new government headed by tepid Remainer
Theresa May. Key offices are held by Philip Hammond (Exchequer) and Amber Rudd
(Home), both Remainers, and the keepers of the Leave flame are Boris Johnson
(Foreign Office), David Davis (Brexit Secretary) and Liam Fox (International
Trade). There is much jockeying for influence within this group which causes
confusion and it cannot be said, but it must soon emerge, that a coherent EU
negotiating stance has yet been promulgated.
Theresa May repeated the tautological mantra Brexit means Brexit to keep the
Eurosceptic Tory Right at bay but she needs to deliver more substance. She is
an enigma. Delivering a major speech to the Tory Conference in early October,
Theresa moved sharply Left, praising government intervention in dysfunctional
markets, disparaging big business for its selfishness and exalting in the
values of a mutually supportive society defending workers’ rights. Theresa is
no toff and not a conventional Tory and I could not help noticing her cold eyes
and how readily her smile twisted into a snarl. She is not a lady to cross, as
no doubt some colleagues will notice soon enough.
The Tory Remainers can probably be dragooned into
obedience but Theresa will need to command a majority in Parliament in due
course and the arithmetic is tight. Labour is in disintegration mode, but can
be relied upon to vote solidly against her; the LibDems and SNP are equally
hostile; the erratic views of Northern Irish members may become important.
Theresa has stated there should be no general election before 2020 but
political realities seem to me to point to an early snap election, when I guess
the Tories would win a very comfortable majority and can then govern with only
principled and rational challenges. They should move quickly as there is an
unusual degree of political flux evident – Labour will not be useless for ever
and the 3m 2015 UKIP electors are unreliable “swing” voters, whom Teresa needs
to capture while Brexit enthusiasms last. The immigration issue in particular,
which personally does not much move me, will have to be resolved, by some
fudged formula, to allay popular anxieties.
Outside Parliament the government has numerous enemies
– big business leaders, the City, most of the Media, senior civil servants, the
Foreign Office, the academic world and the London cognoscenti. Pole-axed by Brexit, they accept this verdict with ill-grace and many are
irreconcilables, quite prepared to undermine their own country to justify their
own positions. Most can be won over by the sight of competent government and
some actual successes. Theresa May has a reputation as a pragmatic do-er; she needs
to justify that reputation immediately by getting her ministers to work
non-stop on Brexit and whip a subtle and inspiring programme into shape.
Britain can expect no help from Brussels and not much
from other European “allies”. Hollande has made clear his view that Britain
must suffer for Brexit pour encourager
les autres. Trade with Britain is not much valued even though the EDF
Hinkley Point nuclear energy contract agreed in October 2016 was surely a rich
prize even for the nonchalant Gauls. Belgium and Luxembourg are hostile though
a section of Dutch opinion understands and shares Britain’s EU frustrations.
Scandinavia is still mesmerised by the 1960s European ideal while Eastern
Europe only cares about the free movement principle and the post-Brexit fate of
their own large communities in Britain. The country that really matters is
Germany, a rich market and key economic partner for Britain. German national
interest favours a mutually beneficial deal with Britain – can they shake clear
of the freedom of movement dogma which causes the Germans themselves so much Angst and can they quieten the Babel of
objections emanating from Juncker and his Eurocrat vested interests? Firm
leadership and diplomatic skill should see a way through these difficulties.
The government must sell a sensible vision of
post-Brexit Britain. We have already suffered a fortuitous but necessary
devaluation, causing some of us real pain. There may be hopes or dreams about
future trade deals and so on but change comes slowly. What matters to me is
that Britain will be free to live in her own fashion and not be frog-marched
into a United States of Europe; that her global reach can be turned to our
advantage; that her traditional institutions will be preserved or changed at
our pace and by nobody else; that her people will be able to develop in their
own delightful and idiosyncratic way and that in our reserved manner we can
remain very good friends with Europeans, Americans and any other deserving nationalities.
SMD
13.10.16
Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2016
No comments:
Post a Comment