Beset and besieged by a variety of jackals and vultures,
Theresa May has staunchly hunkered down to address all the financial,
constitutional and social problems facing the United Kingdom. The electorate
expects firm, fair and coherent government and demands that the government
quickly masters the complexities of Brexit – so far there have been mixed
results and a headmaster’s report would use the time-honoured phrase “could do
better”.
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| Theresa May at work |
The great positive is that Parliament has finally approved the triggering of Article 50, now scheduled for 29 March, and the Royal Assent has been given. Negotiations will presumably begin soon. The passage through the Commons was easy enough as Jeremy Corbyn’s opposition from Labour was pathetically muted. The Lords made predictably Establishment noises fortified by last-ditch pleas from arch-Europhile, and erstwhile darling of the Tory faithful, Michael Heseltine: but they realised their very existence would be jeopardised if they defied the Commons on this crucial issue and they finally concurred. No doubt there will be dozens of ministerial statements, parliamentary questions and second-line debates but there will only be one make-or-break vote on the final terms sometime in 2018-19. One hopes that by that time some kind of national consensus will have emerged.
The UK’s financial performance has much exceeded the deep
gloom forecast by the Remainers in their Project Fear campaign, growing second
only to Germany in Europe. The weakness of sterling helps exports and attracts
inward investment but will also boost inflation. But so far, so good. Philip
Hammond’s Spring Budget however proved to be a shambles. A central measure was
a modest increase in NIC of 2% for the self-employed. This broke a 2015
manifesto pledge not to increase NIC costs and the self-employed are dearly
cherished by the Tories. Backbenchers protested vociferously and May forced
Hammond to withdraw this measure, demonstrating weak pre-budget liaison between
No10 and the Treasury and maybe wobbly political will from Theresa herself.
This does not augur well for the looming abrasive negotiations with the EU – we
need nerveless and committed representatives at that little party which has
every chance of turning particularly nasty.
Talking of the particularly nasty, Nicola Sturgeon, leader
of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland announced that she would ask the UK
government to approve the holding of a second Independence referendum. She lost
the first 55-45% in 2014, but the Brexit vote is judged, fairly enough, “a
material change of circumstances” and 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU in
the Leave/Remain vote of 2016. Theresa May has not refused an eventual
referendum but states it cannot take place until after Brexit. This position
was applauded by veteran SNP/Labour man Jim Sillars as “sensible”. Predictably the SNP is theatrically outraged,
but remember the SNP is “a grievance machine” unwilling to agree anything that
does not suit its fanatical independence cravings.
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| Scotland's least enjoyed export, Nicola Sturgeon |
Sadly, as a Scots Unionist, at present the SNP is politically dominant in my native country. The polls say that support for independence is waning – we will see to what extent in the May 4 local elections – but Labour seems ineffective and the Tories, doughtily led by Ruth Davidson, enjoys minority (if well-informed) support. The intellectual case for independence has never looked weaker: the SNP presides over a country with a much worse growth rate than the UK, North Sea oil revenues have nose-dived from £1.8bn in 2015 to just £60m in 2016 and an independent Scotland would have at 9.7% the 2nd highest Debt/GDP ratio in the developed world. Her admission to the EU would be long delayed, the necessary “hard border” between Scotland and England would undermine Scots business, a new Scots currency would be required and so on ad infinitum. Sensible Scots see that remaining within the Union, subsidised by the UK, is crucial.
The SNP could not care less about these facts. La Sturgeon
struts about as if she were already the President of the Scots Republic and any
price, even bankruptcy, is worth paying for achieving her Holy Grail of
Independence. Her bubble deserves to be pricked but Theresa avoids direct
confrontation, at least for now. The Scots Parliament will pass a motion asking
for a 2nd independence referendum, but Theresa should resist these unwelcome
pressures, as legally she has every right to do. Only she can fix a date for a
referendum.
Theresa May’s position is not ideal. She lacks the authority
of an election winner, as her eminence is the result of an inter-party Tory
cabal. Her parliamentary majority of about 12 is much too thin for comfort and
all the signs are it would be materially increased were there to be an early
election. But Brexit business must take priority and calling an election requires
far more guile than previously, under the 2011 Fixed Parliament Act. Opposition
led by ineffable Jeremy Corbyn, pipsqueak Tim Farron and unlovable Nicola
Sturgeon should easily enough be overcome, yet Theresa declines to call a poll.
She probably wants to have more to boast about in terms of Brexit and economic progress.
Meanwhile she has to grin and bear the poison arrows from hostile opponents and
media.
2017 is certain to be a sticky year. Trump appears to be
totally lacking in presidential qualities and his erratic domestic and foreign
policies can cause mayhem. Germany and France will be distracted by national
elections, but we should not be too much swayed by talk of radical political
change. Marine Le Pen will not become French President nor will Merkel’s
Christian Democrats lose their grip on power in Germany. The muted showing by
Geert Wilders in the Netherlands shows that stodgy Europeans are not much attracted
to revolutions these days. The EU as an institution will have to curb its
ambitions and a two-speed Europe may well emerge. A predatory Russia will sniff
for territorial prey on her borders, in say Latvia and Ukraine, putting NATO’s
resolve and solidarity to the test.
Theresa May is not a flamboyant type but she has the
experience and single-mindedness to lead the UK to what it wants to be – a
prosperous cosmopolitan nation in a new arrangement outside the restrictions of
the EU but cooperating closely with Europe in many vital fields. I hope most of
the nation can in time unify around such a programme.
SMD
21.03.17
Text Copyright ©Sidney Donald 2017
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