BREXIT BRINKSMANSHIP

We have just had a torrid period for Brexit, beset by knotty problems of debatable financial obligations, rights of residence, the limits of EU jurisdiction and the openness or otherwise of the South-North Irish border. The EU imposed deadlines and made no concessions, true to its imperialist mind-set, our Remainers gloated and sowed discord, while we Brexiteers were disturbed by the less than sparkling performance of the government and wondered whether a hard Brexit on WTO terms was the only way forward. Yet we did not despair; any moderately competent politician can find the re-assuring words to satisfy the Irish while the Brexit exit bill and the judicial turf-wars were more or less sorted. On Friday gallantly persistent Theresa May popped over to Brussels, endured a pawing and slobbering Juncker, and signed up a Brexit divorce agreement. Progression to trade talks, likely to be equally fraught, will now bore and upset us for the next 12 months. But at least a first step to the exit door has been achieved.

Relief all round as Theresa May pulls off a deal

It is impossible to tell currently whether an acceptable trade deal can be delivered. Any deal emanating from Brussels is likely to be unfavourable to the UK – maybe a free trade arrangement for manufactured goods but nothing for services – attacking Brussels’ bête noire, the City of London, a vital earner for Britain. Nor will the EU easily agree to repatriate our fishing rights (a hot issue in Scotland) and some university research funding will be withdrawn to the synthetic horror of many academics. The EU itches to punish the UK for its temerity in seeking to quit its control and wants to discourage any other leavers. But its malignity will have its prudential limits; already Mrs Merkel is seeing the collapse of German car sales in the UK, a trend which can only increase as the EU’s popularity here evaporates.

Recent events underline the wisdom of Brexit. Juncker was singing the praises of a European Army in his September “State of the Union” message and Germany and France are pressing on with plans for centralised training, weapon procurement and command – functions already provided by NATO. They have no democratic mandate for such policies. Martin Schultz, German Social Democrat leader and would-be Chancellor, proclaimed yesterday his aim to create a United States of Europe by 2025. Many European countries may favour this aim, good luck to them, but it was certainly never on the UK’s agenda, and the wide differences between North and South Europe and Eastern and Western Europe are likely to doom this grandiose idea to a forgotten corner of a cobwebbed vault in downtown Berlin.

Martin Schultz, unrealistic Eurofanatic

Staying inside the EU is like being locked in a runaway train with careless unqualified drivers mowing down the views of national electorates. The EU rushes on with “forward” policies – viz. the ill-starred attempt to rope in Ukraine to its sphere of influence – and do not be surprised if a future UK government paraphrases Bismarck on the Balkans and opines “ Eastern Europe is not worth the bones of a single British Grenadier”.

For the next stage of negotiation, the UK needs to sharpen up her act. David Davis is a solid citizen but our overstretched civil service sometimes briefs him inadequately and his competence is challenged. I would like to see a greater role for incisive Michael Gove and Boris should be ruffling more feathers in Europe’s chancelleries. Theresa May can take much credit for the reasonably satisfactory outcome of Phase 1, but progress has been crab-like and at times the UK dithered. Mind you, with all the conflicting pressures and her weak parliamentary position, not to mention her daily private fight with type 1 diabetes, Theresa has overall battled through admirably. Her cabinet, her party and indeed the UK parliament sadly does not have an embarrassment of talent at this crucial juncture.

The UK Parliament, repository of great historic talent

The UK does hold a few high cards. Her £39bn conditional pledge makes a large difference to the EU’s finances, and Angela Merkel is particularly influenced by budgetary considerations. Europe badly needs a cooperative UK for defence and security purposes and the size of her economy makes the open UK a highly desirable trade partner to almost anyone.

Can a final deal be reached? We Brexiteers have to concentrate on the essentials – access to global markets, effective independence judicially, sensible concurrence with the EU when useful – no doubt with compromises at the edges. Theresa May needs and deserves to collect more parliamentary support, 10 or so Labour or Lib-Dem defectors would make a huge difference. On balance I believe she can lead us out into the sunlight of our Promised Land, flowing with milk and honey.

SMD

9.12.17

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2017