It has not been a great week for Democracy, the system
we, at least nominally, profess to practice and admire. All systems have their
drawbacks but somehow the negative aspects of government of the people, by
the people, for the people have been seen lately in a sharp and
unattractive focus.
The tumult in Hong Kong is part of a long sad story.
Most of the bustling British colony was leased from the Chinese and had to be
returned after 100 years. It was handed back in 1997 and became an autonomous
part of China, with legal rights and liberties for 50 years unknown on the
mainland. The Chinese proposed an extradition arrangement which alarmed HK;
after massive, peaceful demonstrations the Chinese-appointed administration
there backed down. Fine. Then a hot-headed faction of “democrats”, dissatisfied
with the concession, attacked and vandalized the legislative building and
violently resisted the riot police. The moral high ground has been handed to
the Chinese, who could squash HK in a morning - and would, were it not for HK’s
solid overseas financial contacts and investor-friendliness. The “democrats”
have over-played their hand foolishly. Let us hope no permanent damage is
caused.
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| Unwise rioting in Hong Kong |
The European Union proclaims what a democratic
champion it is, not at all the autocratic, secretive and cynical institution
painted by her detractors. Well, what are we to make of the process of
nominating candidates for the top jobs falling vacant? It is supposed to be a
quasi-democratic exercise (known as the Spitzenkandidat system), taking
note of the relative party strengths in the European Parliament. In fact Merkel
and Macron, abetted by Tusk and Juncker, master-minded a carve-up in a
smoke-filled room which would do credit to the machinations of corrupt Tammany
Hall bosses in early 20th century New York. As usual, all earlier EU
professions of high principle were abandoned when the going got tough. It was
not a pretty sight and was miles away from anything democratic. Expect
fireworks from the European Parliament, as some appointments require its
approval.
Worse, the actual outcome of their deliberations was a
list of nominees constituting the feeblest candidates possible to fill these
important posts. Instead of bibulous Jean-Claude Juncker we are to have Ursula
von der Leyen (who?) German Defence Minister, who is widely derided in Germany
(“the worst of all the cabinet ministers”, thought one colleague). She has made
little impact on politics at home and seems determinedly pedestrian, with no
qualities matching her substantial duties. She is well turned out and she and
her husband belong to the rich, aristocratic minority – and she is a pal of
Angela Merkel. What more could you possibly want?
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| Overpromoted Ursula von der Leyen |
To succeed downbeat Donald Tusk as President of the EU
Council, it has chosen Charles Michel, bald-headed Francophone prime minister
of Belgium, a master no doubt of the irreconcilable coalition, but a colourless
unknown outside his country. The other major appointment is notorious Christine
Lagarde, current blundering head of the IMF, to succeed wily Mario Draghi as
head of European Central Bank. Lagarde is a competition lawyer by trade and was
a minister under Sarkozy (later mired in a scandal with entrepreneur Bernard
Tapie). She knows nothing about central banking, a distinct art, and her
ability to manage eurozone turmoil is widely doubted. Most of the other
candidates have been bought off with deputyships, but Italy and the Slavic
countries see their influence sharply diminished – a sure recipe for disunity.
All in all, an undemocratic stitch-up.
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Unappetising Charles Michel and Christine Lagarde
Last, but hardly least, we have the Brexit struggle in
the UK. Parliament is split down the middle, with many ignoring the 2016
Referendum result, and the Tory government has no majority. The resignation of
Theresa May has set off a succession free-for-all which resulted in Boris
Johnson, a genuine Brexiteer with fire in his belly, facing an election by Tory
Party members for the Leadership against Jeremy Hunt, a one-time Remainer
pretending unconvincingly to support Brexit. As the Tory membership is
overwhelmingly in the Leaver camp there is little doubt that Boris will emerge
as winner.
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| Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt |
The challenge comes later, as he tries to negotiate with Brussels for a marginally better exit deal, amending the Irish backstop. These negotiations are likely to fail; Boris will not have a clear democratic mandate to exit from the EU on a no-deal basis. Rather than resort to sneaky manoeuvres like proroguing Parliament to slip a bill through, Boris would be well advised to hold a snap election in October to change the composition of Parliament. He will need an electoral pact with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, but pro-Brexit sentiment is probably 70% pro to 30% anti and he should win a landslide and the democratic backing he needs.
The long Brexit agony and the battle against the
enemies of democracy will be over, not before time.
SMD
5.07.19
Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019
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