THE UNION ON THE RACK

The Union between Scotland and England, of their Crowns since 1603 and of their Parliaments since 1707, is a corner-stone of the UK constitution and it has made a mighty contribution to the prosperity of our United Kingdom for more than 300 years. The contribution of Scots to the public, economic, literary and artistic life of the Union has been remarkable, and yet powerful voices in Scotland are seeking to break these historic bonds to the detriment of both nations. Scottish Parliamentary elections will take place on 6 May 2021 and those results may be crucial to struggles ahead.

        Nicola Sturgeon sets her face against Boris Johnson

The case for Scottish independence emerged from the economic woes and suffering of industrial Scotland in the 1920s and 1930s and was espoused by certain Scots leftist intellectuals. It was an eccentric cause with little support until the 1970s apart from shock by-election wins in Hamilton and Govan. But opinion was moving forward with the Kilbrandon Commission recommending devolution in its 1973 Report. Attempts to introduce devolution in Scotland were defeated in a 1979 referendum where the 51% majority in favour (32% of the electorate) fell short of the required 40% of the electorate. Margaret Thatcher’s reform programme from 1979 to 1990 did not appeal to Scots, who did not directly benefit and who were over-represented in declining industries like mining, ship-building and heavy engineering. The Tories (aka Unionists), masters of Scotland up to the 1955 election, went into steady decline and by 1980 Scotland was a Labour fiefdom.

    

Donald Dewar, the First First Minister

                                                               

                                                                                      Alex Salmond, the flawed SNP hero    

Nationalist support was growing spurred on by the spectacular success of North Sea Oil – “Its Scotland’s Oil!” went their slogan – but electoral success was elusive. Labour embraced the case for devolution and passed the Scotland Act in 1998, after the Blair landslide, leading to incisive Donald Dewar being made the initial First Minister of the devolved Scottish administration in 1999. The assumption was that a constitutional solution had been found and that the Union was safe.

But it was not to be. Donald Dewar suddenly died in 2000 and despite Labour boasting of several “big Scottish guns” in Westminster like Robin Cook, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, its local leadership was uncharismatic and began to lose touch with the electorate. A resurgent SNP filled the vacuum with its leader from 2004, street-smart Alex Salmond, becoming First Minister in 2008 in a minority Scottish government, in coalition with the Greens, forming a majority government by 2011. Salmond, with his deputy Nicola Sturgeon, persuaded Westminster Premier David Cameron to agree to a referendum on Independence in 2014 (Cameron airily believing the Nationalist cause was doomed) but in the event it was closer, with the cause of the Union prevailing by a 55% to 45% margin. Salmond resigned the leadership of the SNP, to be succeeded by Nicola Sturgeon. Deep Scottish “patriotic” emotions had been stimulated by the independence campaign, even though it failed, and membership of the SNP quadrupled. The SNP’s accession to government and ministerial experience gave invaluable credibility.

Nicola Sturgeon, bewitching to some

                                                                    

Ruth Davidson, formidable Scottish Tory     

Political fortunes fluctuated wildly. In the 2015 Westminster election, the SNP won 56 (up from 6) of the 59 Scottish seats and the Tories retained 1. Labour were wiped out. In 2017 The SNP, dipped to 35 seats, the Conservatives revived with 13. Labour won back 7 and the LibDems held 4. The poorer SNP showing (Alex Salmond losing his seat) was ascribed to Sturgeon insisting on a 2^nd independence referendum, to an electorate weary with constitutional wrangling. The 2019 election saw the SNP rebound to 48, Tories reduced to 6, Labour to a mere 1 and the LibDems unchanged at 4.

The SNP insist noisily that if they again get a majority of the seats (almost a certainty) in the Holyrood Parliament, to form their 4^th successive ministry, they have a mandate to call for a second referendum on Independence. However only the Tory-controlled Westminster Parliament can approve a referendum as it did in 2014, invoking section 30 of the Scotland Act, and the SNP are campaigning to go through the same process again. In their manifesto the SNP talk of a 2^nd referendum by the end of 2023, once the Covid pandemic has abated. Officially Boris Johnson has said that the 2014 referendum settled the matter for a generation but the nationalist argument is that the situation has radically changed since the completion of Brexit which Scottish voters rejected by 62% to 38% in 2016. There is some force in this argument, but it may well be ignored.

William Wallace, died 1305

        
                                      

Robert the Bruce, died 1329

The SNP are obsessed by an ancient and romantic historical narrative, peppered with quotes from the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath, of Scottish oppression by the English, of supposed victimhood – despite huge subsidies being paid to Scotland via the long-established Barnett Formula. Per capita Scotland is paid 13% more than England, partly justifiable by the less compact spread of population, but certainly other UK voters will not be impressed by populist measures like free university places for Scots residents only and above-UK average payments to public service workers and NHS staff. The SNP have odd views on defence – they have long called for the closure of the US Polaris submarine base on the Holy Loch (an old CND favourite) – but they have not made explicit their seething opposition to NATO. Independence would certainly end Scotland’s lucrative participation in UK warship building. Alex Salmond himself even hosted a TV programme on the RT (Russia Today) channel, often expressing admiration of Vladimir Putin. The SNP also harbour fantasies about avenging Culloden, rejoining the EU, launching their own currency and bestriding the world stage. It has been weakened by the expulsion and defection of Alex Salmond, steeped in unproven sexual allegations, who has set up his new Alba party, also immoderately nationalistic.

The Tories need to prick the SNP bubble but mere ridicule will not suffice. The sad fact is that Boris Johnson does not go down well in Scotland – he is too much the Balliol toff (”that ineffable air of effortless superiority”) for Clydeside tastes and his harrumphing evasions and humour are not appreciated – he should quietly stay away. The Unionist cause was well rallied by feisty Ruth Davidson in Holyrood but she is stepping back from front-line politics and will soon be in the Lords. Aberdonian Michael Gove is smart, if uncharismatic, while the new Holyrood Unionist leader, Douglas Ross, has yet to make his mark. Their team is competent but not yet inspiring.

Let battle commence. Westminster should stick to its adamant refusal to hold a second referendum and the SNP should have their feet held to the fire and be judged by their pandemic performance, control over public finances, deterioration of educational standards and opaquely poor observance of political boundaries. In my eyes, as a Scot and a democrat, the SNP cast a sinister cloud over my nation and ought to be rejected comprehensively.

 

SMD

16.04.21

Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2021