A Rosy Crystal Ball
I thought it would be appropriate to take a
positive forward view of 2024 and make some, maybe optimistic, political
predictions. I do warn you that I do not have a spotless record as a prophet (I
thought Boris’ first ministry would last for years) and you, my dear readers,
will have their own ideas about the future. Anyway, I adopt the mantle of the soothsayers
Nostradamus, Dr Faustus or is it, Cassandra?
1. United Kingdom.
I expect the 2024 general election will be
narrowly won by Labour. Efficient Sunak’s Tories will make some progress on the
economy and immigration, but the electorate want change. Keir Starmer will
become PM but he will be in an uneasy coalition with the swivel-eyed LibDems, constantly
sniped at by the radical Left. Various other groups, SNP, Greens and Reform
will make a nuisance of themselves. Starmer is a straight-forward lawyer but he
is wooden, and completely lacks political nous or charisma.
The Tories will eventually re-align towards the
centre, Right-wing ginger groups will wither as frankly Home Counties Tories are
becoming apathetic. Rishi Sunak will not last long as, like Starmer he is worthy
but not remotely inspirational. I guess he will be succeeded by Kemi Badenoch,
a no-nonsense right-leaning lady of professional Nigerian parentage, but born
in England. She has been an effective trade minister and is married to banker
Hamish Badenoch (sounds Scottish but he actually hails from Northern Ireland).
She will have many attractions for women, long-suffering committed Tories and first-generation
immigrants.
2. USA
The election that really matters is the American
Presidential Election on Tuesday 5 November 2024. At present, everyone assumes
it will be a dismal re-run of the 2020 election between Joe Biden and Donald
Trump. I do not believe either candidate will run. Joe Biden, is a very
ordinary machine politician who has never uttered a memorable word in his life.
Soon his family and confidantes will have a quiet word with Sleepy Joe and tactfully
tell him he is much too old, long past his sell-by date, put him to bed and
turn off the lights. Some brighter (a low bar) Democratic senator or governor
will win the nomination.
Nor will Donald Trump be running. He faces
business ruin, numerous law-suits and reputational disgrace, mainly emanating
from his deplorable encouragement of the Capitol riot of January 2021. The
Americans protect their Constitution and Trump went too far. Trumpism (Make
America Great Again etc.) is strong among the red-necks and less educated in
the electorate and the Republicans will win having nominate the likes of Ron
DeSantis, governor of Florida, who would be infinitely preferable to the
ghastly Trump himself.
Ron DeSantis, a better man
3. European Union
The EU proceeds in its sclerotic and
imperialistic way, divided, quarrelsome and far less potent than it should be.
With Poland and Hungary out-of-step it needs major reform. I foresee a 2-speed
EU with the Slavs, Greeks and maybe Iberians in the slow lane. The initiative
will move to France, Germany, Benelux, Italy, Austria, Denmark and Sweden who
will speed up decision making, crucially integrate their economies and create a
comprehensive banking system. Those with strong economies will make the EU a
power-house again. The rest will toddle about to their own agendas, some may be
admitted to the stronger group after a generation.
4. The Rest of the World
One can only look with sadness at the mess in
Ukraine, Gaza and the Middle East generally – predictions are beyond me. No
doubt India, China and Japan will prosper (I do not think China will dare invade
Taiwan). For most people all these issues pass them by, and in the
time-honoured fairy-tale phrase - May they live happily ever after!
SMD
O7.01.24
Text copyright © Sidney Donald 2024
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