Despite the dismal England performance losing the Ashes to
Australia’s cricketers and the certainty that England will not win football’s
World Cup in Brazil, 2013 was a very good year for the world and 2014 is likely
to be even better. Let us celebrate the real achievements of the year just
ended and the fine prospects for 2014.
As The Spectator
pointed out in its Christmas leading article, by some measures 2013 has been ”the
best year in human history”. The world’s economic output at $73.5 trillion has
never been higher and never has it been shared so evenly. UN targets for
massive improvements in access to drinking water, in eliminating slums, in
reducing child poverty, in conquering AIDS and ending famine are being more
than met. Life expectancy is soaring, previously lethal diseases are being
eradicated. Economic growth is at the heart of this improvement as the Economic
Crisis slowly melts led by the US and the UK, international trade revives,
millions in China, India and Brazil achieve a decent standard of living. These
benefits have been earned by the effort of ordinary people exploiting free
markets and owes little to politicians - Obama has been ineffective and the
ineptitude of the management of the Eurozone has been shameful. Generally
though, excellent progress has been made and while much more needs to be done,
our world is being transformed for the better.
In the UK, economic revival is gaining momentum, some of it
fuelled by a dangerous housing bubble but much of it more sustainably based and
all credit to Cameron and Osborne. The Stock Market added to the feel-good
factor with a gratifying rise. The government is tackling the critical issue of
education, aimed at improving the prospects of school-leavers and hopefully bringing
an end to the social immobility seen in the last 25 years, wasting the
potential of less advantaged children. Reforms in hospitals’ accountability and
a renegotiation of doctors’ contracts should make the NHS affordable and fit
for purpose. The Commons sensibly kept the UK out of any Syrian intervention
and final departure from Afghanistan is looming. Bread and Circuses were well
maintained with the Queens’ 60th Jubilee, a new prospective male
heir in Prince George, Lions’ rugby triumph in Australia, England’s Justin Rose
winning the US Open golf title, and Andy Murray, a Brit (and better, a Scot!)
won the Wimbledon tennis championship after 77 years, to the joy of the nation.
What will 2014 bring as I peer into the crystal ball? I
believe economic recovery in the Anglophone economies will continue. China and
India too will grow but at a lesser rate than recently. The Middle East will
remain in turmoil as Sunni-Shia antagonisms worsen. At risk are the autocratic
regimes in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf, sponsors of Jihadist ideology. In the
past we would be fearful that Arab instability would bring a spike in the price
of oil but there is an over-supply of oil and shale oil is quickly becoming an
important factor in the US and soon enough in the UK. The Arab world will have
much less leverage than once it did – it needs to put its own disorderly house straight without outside influences.
I would guess that the Euro will just about survive in 2014
amid growing dissatisfaction and impoverishment of its Mediterranean members.
The elections to the European Parliament in 2014 will see a landslide in favour
of the Eurosceptic Right favouring Nigel Farage’s UKIP in the UK, Marine Le
Pen’s National Front in France, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands
and Golden Dawn in Greece coupled with support for the Eurosceptic Left,
notably for Syriza in Greece. These divisions will gum up the EU mechanics
unless its centre parties can formulate a programme to end the financial sufferings
of Eurozone citizens, thus far way beyond their intellectual capabilities.
The UK will have a particularly good year. Separated, if not
immune, from Eurozone convulsions, she will push on with her diplomatic
programme of repatriating legislative and judicial powers from the EU. The UK
will be quite happy with a two-speed free market Europe where nations can cherry-pick
those institutions she decides to join. She will not join any common banking,
currency or political union; if pushed by the European majority, she will
depart on terms. Cameron’s position will be much enhanced by the decisive
rejection of Independence in the Scottish Referendum in September 2014, despite
stunts and emotional pleas by cunning politician Alex Salmond; the Scots will
see through his claptrap. A strengthened
Cameron will be well placed to win the 2015 election outright as Ed Miliband
has not made sufficient impression in crucial 2013, despite some good moments
and the Lib Dems are burdened with anachronistic Europhilia and its obstruction
to the necessary measures to tighten up immigration controls.
2014 will see the world prosper, the US reasserting its
leadership with the UK improving more rapidly than many others and continuing
to be relatively rich, tolerant, civilised and outward-looking
A good New Year to you All
SMD
2.01.2014
Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment