A CROWDED FIELD

The contest for the Leadership of the Conservative Party – and hence succession to the Premiership – starts next week and there are already 13 contenders. By any standards that is a crowded field and we know that in a crowded field some horses trip over, knock others sideways and obstruct the rest. So, we can be sure of a spirited if not an elegant race. The field is not strikingly attractive with no obvious thoroughbreds, a few old nags, some bouncy fillies and quite a number with no form at all.

The contenders face two quite different electorates. To start with, they are whittled down to two by the 313 Conservative members of Parliament, a group containing a bloc of convinced Brexiteers but most of the others are tepidly agnostic with a few fanatical Remainers. A series of votes are taken and the surviving two are then put to the 124,000-strong national membership of the Party. This membership is thought to be pro-Brexit and it is quite likely that the MPs will have slimmed the field down to one Brexiteer and one erstwhile Remainer – I guess Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid.   I must say my prophecies should be taken with a large pinch of salt – I have got previous contests entirely wrong and my recent predictions on Eurovision, for example, were wildly off the mark!

Dominic Raab, my tip for the top job

Sajid Javid, his likely rival

Today the bookies’ favourites are Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab but I fear Boris has too many enemies in Westminster to last the course. He has “curb appeal”, instantly recognizable with his untidy shock of blond hair. He has a broad cosmopolitan culture, a keen sense of humour and is an effectively persuasive campaigner. He was a success in his 8-year term as Mayor of London. And yet……..He has an excessive liking for the ladies by prim Home Counties standards, is erratic and harrumphing in his utterances and is short of gravitas, retaining too much of his spoilt-brat, toffish Etonian aura. He suffers too from the burden of endorsement by Donald Trump. Boris’ colleague Michael Gove deserted him crucially in 2016, doubting, it is said, Boris’ capacity for detailed hard work. Boris would enliven any team, even inspire it, but perhaps does not possess the utter dedication of a Thatcher.

Boris’ handicaps rather open the door to Dominic Raab, aspirational, meritocratic, recently immersed in EU politics and belonging to the right age-group. He is a straight-forward and eloquent Leaver even though he does not have a high public profile. He is an easy choice.

The other Big Beast of the Brexit camp is Michael Gove himself, whom I greatly like, not least because he is a Scotsman from my native Aberdeen. He is the most cerebral of the Tory candidates, he speaks very well, debates intelligently and calmly and he has shown his mettle and his grip in the ministerial offices he has held. Alas, the Tories in the shires have not forgiven him for knifing Boris in 2016 and his loyalty to Theresa and her dud Withdrawal Bill counts against him. He has no chance of the leadership, but surely will have major office in a future Tory government.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove - 2 Big Beasts I think will fall short

There are 3 strong women candidates – Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Penny Morduant – all talented and solid citizens – but they are not likely to get far in this crowded field. Other ambitious contenders are just too obscure to be taken seriously – Matt Hancock, Rory Stewart, James Cleverly, Graham Brady and Kit Malthouse.  The Party rules for this contest allow any Tom, Prick or Tristram to throw his hat into the ring irrespective of his real support – a rule change is indicated.

Two more serious contenders are capable (and rich) Jeremy Hunt and admirable Sajid Javid. Hunt does not get my pulses racing but has been a reliable minister. I see the merits of Javid, the self-made son of a Pakistani bus-driver in Bradford – the incarnation of the Tory One Nation dream. He too is a late convert to Leave and will attract the cautious vote. Whatever, we will know soon enough who the two surviving candidates are; a final choice will be made in mid-June and the victor will emerge in July.

Of course, all this may be made irrelevant by House of Commons obstruction. I guess a Brexiteer will win the Tory race and head the Government and then the focus will be on Parliament. With the EC declining to negotiate further, the May Withdrawal Bill is all that can be tabled. All opposition MPs are adamantly opposed to a “no-deal Brexit” i.e. leaving without an agreement with the EC, and instead operating on World Trade Organisation terms involving mutual tariffs. The Theresa May deal is anathema to Tory Brexiteers and is certainly wholly unacceptable to the large numbers supporting Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the country, though he has no MPS. Will anyone move or will we progress inexorably to civil disturbances and instability? The Wreckers in Parliament, the Speaker – and at one remove, the BBC, the Bank of England and the Establishment- will have much to answer for. A general election could break the Westminster logjam, probably at the cost of destroying the Tory, Labour and LibDem parties, all three of whom would fragment hopelessly.

We need a sure-footed guide out of this morass!

SMD

31.05.19

Text Copyright © Sidney Donald 2019